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Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS)

Currency in USD

Last close As at 30/11/2023

USD15.66

▲ 0.03 (0.19%)

Market capitalisation

USD5,696m

Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. It owns 11 producing operations, the currently suspended top tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration/development projects.

Volatility in gold and silver prices put pressure on Pan American Silver’s shares, which, in our opinion, do not reflect the intrinsic value of the company’s assets. The stock is currently trading at a consensus FY23e EV/EBITDA of c 7x, which we believe is an undemanding multiple.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Pan American Silver — Q323: La Colorada continues to underperform

Metals & Mining | Flash note

Pan American Silver — La Colorada to restart after suspension

Metals & Mining | Flash note

Pan American Silver — La Colorada mine suspension

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan American Silver — Yamana assets boost mineral resources
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american
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Equity Analyst

Andrey Litvin

Energy and Resources Analyst

Key Management

  • Guido Mastropietro

    Director, finance

  • Siren Fisekci

    VP, investor relations and corporate communic

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

441.4

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

9

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 3.4 (6.0) 2.5
Relative (6.5) (7.1) (10.9)
52 week high/low US$19.5/US$13.1

Financials

Pan American’s Q3 results did not bring any major surprises at the group level, with lower EBITDA of US$159m, down 22% q-o-q, mainly a result of the continuing underperformance of La Colorada and lower-than-expected gold grades at El Penon. Yet the company reported flat (quarter-on-quarter) net operating cash flow of US$115m and broadly reiterated its FY23 operating guidance. We have revised downwards our near-term earnings estimates on the back of the results. However, our valuation has increased from US$22.0/share to US$22.7 due to updated longer-term gold price expectations. Although the shares have reacted negatively to the results, we expect a stronger Q4, while the commodity prices remain supportive against the backdrop of higher geopolitical risks.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 1632.8 593.2 304.7 74.68 21.0 33.4
2022A 1494.7 272.0 (73.0) (54.06) N/A N/A
2023E 2303.3 674.6 99.4 21.29 73.6 N/A
2024E 2645.3 908.7 232.4 37.99 41.2 40.9

Research

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — La Colorada to restart after suspension

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — La Colorada mine suspension
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Metals & Mining

Update

Pan American Silver — Q323: La Colorada continues to underperform

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Yamana assets boost mineral resources
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Refining estimates post Q2 results

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Positive non-core assets divestment

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Bigger scale, stronger profitability
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Yamana transaction fully approved

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — FY22 results beat consensus expectations
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Shareholders approve Yamana transaction

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Proxy advisors support Yamana vote
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