Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS)

Currency in USD

Last close As at 26/05/2023


−0.35 (−2.28%)

Market capitalisation


Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. It owns 11 producing operations, the currently suspended top tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration/development projects.

Despite the relative strength of gold and silver prices, PAAS’s share price performance remains relatively muted and, in our opinion, does not reflect the transformative nature of the Yamana transaction. The stock is currently trading at a consensus FY23e EV/EBITDA of c 11x, which appears to be an undemanding multiple.

Macro Pyrite mineral

Equity Analyst

Andrey Litvin

Mining Analyst

Key Management

  • Guido Mastropietro

    Director, finance

  • Siren Fisekci

    VP, investor relations and corporate communic

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)


Forecast gearing ratio (%)


Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (12.8) 0.5 (33.0)
Relative (14.5) (3.9) (35.8)
52 week high/low US$24.0/US$13.6


Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive acquisitions that add scale and improve profitability. With the full annualised contribution from the Yamana assets, we estimate PAAS will produce c 25Moz of silver and 1.1Moz of gold in FY24. The anticipated launch of Escobal (FY25e) could further increase silver production to above 40Moz, bringing PAAS closer to the industry leader, Fresnillo. In this note we reinstate our estimates and update our valuation to reflect the Yamana acquisition. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is now US$22.5/share.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 1632.8 593.2 274.0 60.10 24.9 31.9
2022A 1494.7 272.0 (66.6) (51.01) N/A N/A
2023E 2437.7 733.7 185.7 37.36 40.1 51.9
2024E 2895.8 1099.0 468.0 77.58 19.3 19.8


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