Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS)

Currency in USD

Last close As at 25/01/2023

USD19.14

0.13 (0.68%)

Market capitalisation

USD4,002m

Pan American Silver (PAAS) is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. PAAS owns eight producing operations, the currently suspended top-tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration projects.

Our preliminary calculations suggest a pro forma FY22e consensus EV/EBITDA of 6.5x for the combined company, which we view as an attractive multiple. Additional support to PAAS’s share price should come from Agnico Eagle’s decision to buy up to US$150m in PAAS shares on the open market, which represents c 5% of the company’s equity.

Equity Analyst

Andrey Litvin

Supervisory analyst

Key Management

  • Guido Mastropietro

    Director, finance

  • Siren Fisekci

    VP, investor relations and corporate communic

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

134.2

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 13.9 19.4 (18.3)
Relative 9.0 14.7 (11.4)
52 week high/low US$29.9/US$13.6

Financials

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported preliminary operational results for FY22. Consolidated silver and gold production of 18.5Moz and 552.5koz were within the earlier guidance ranges (previously revised for silver). PAAS continues to progress its recently announced plan of arrangement to buy all non-Canadian assets of Yamana Gold. Shareholder votes for both companies are scheduled for 31 January, while the leading proxy advisors ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended PAAS shareholders to vote in favor of the proposed share issue to acquire all outstanding Yamana shares. We put our forecasts and valuation of PAAS under review pending upcoming shareholder approvals of the deal, which we believe could be an important catalyst for the stock.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2020A 1338.8 469.1 194.5 57.24 33.4 22.8
2021A 1632.8 593.2 274.0 60.10 31.8 40.8
2022E 1540.8 296.6 (24.7) (25.65) N/A N/A
2023E 1582.9 483.9 174.2 53.06 36.1 35.7

Thematics

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