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Research: TMT
Keywords’ acquisition of Blindlight for up to $10m gives the group the ability to apply Hollywood movie production resources to the games industry. Factoring in Blindlight and the May acquisition of Fire without Smoke, EPS is enhanced by 2% and 4% for FY18 and FY19 respectively. With the €75m revolving credit now secured, with scope to extend to €105m, the company has plenty of headroom to continue its consolidation strategy while enhancing earnings.
Written by
Keywords Studios |
Keywords goes to Hollywood |
Acquisition |
Software & comp services |
11 June 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Keywords Studios is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Keywords’ acquisition of Blindlight for up to $10m gives the group the ability to apply Hollywood movie production resources to the games industry. Factoring in Blindlight and the May acquisition of Fire without Smoke, EPS is enhanced by 2% and 4% for FY18 and FY19 respectively. With the €75m revolving credit now secured, with scope to extend to €105m, the company has plenty of headroom to continue its consolidation strategy while enhancing earnings.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
96.6 |
14.9 |
20.3 |
1.3 |
101.7 |
0.07 |
12/17 |
151.4 |
23.0 |
29.9 |
1.5 |
68.9 |
0.08 |
12/18e |
252.3 |
37.3 |
47.7 |
1.6 |
43.2 |
0.09 |
12/19e |
283.3 |
42.5 |
52.8 |
1.8 |
39.0 |
0.10 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Adding Hollywood production capability
Based in Hollywood, US, Blindlight supports game publishers and developers by procuring talent and managing the production process for the parts of games that benefit from Hollywood production resources. Services include celebrity acquisition and rights management, game writing, music, sound design, motion capture and in particular, original voice production complementing Keyword’s well-developed audio services.
Multiple looks in line with historical norms
Keywords is paying $3.64m cash with 64,521 shares ($1.4m at today’s share price) to be issued on the first anniversary of the deal with up to $4.8m deferred consideration to be paid out on the first and second anniversaries depending on performance. The business has made on average $1m over the past three years, although we understand the recent year was somewhat below this as a result of the actor’s strike, from which a recovery is expected going forward. The structure suggests that Keywords will ultimately pay a mid- to high- single digit multiple of PBT over the next couple of years, in line with its historical acquisition averages.
FY19 EPS upgraded by 4%
We revise our estimates to reflect both the Blindlight and Fire Without Smoke (May) acquisitions, with FY18 and FY19 EPS increasing by 2% and 4% respectively. We continue to see good potential for organic estimates to increase as the year progresses. Further acquisitions should also further enhance earnings. While the first half of the year has been comparatively quiet for acquisitions, the company has now secured an initial €75m revolving credit facility with scope to increase this to €105m. Hence we would expect acquisition activity to accelerate in H2.
Valuation: Sustained execution should deliver returns
The 39x FY19 P/E clearly prices in continued strong progress, but acquisitions and organic upside can bring this down substantially. Over the past five years, Keywords has generated revenue and EPS CAGR of 77% and 53% respectively. We believe that sustained execution should continue to deliver returns.
Investment summary
Exhibit 1: Summary of estimate changes reflecting the Blindlight and Fire Without Smoke acquisitions
€'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2018e |
% |
2019 |
2019e |
% |
||
31-December |
Actual |
Actual |
Old |
New |
Old |
New |
||||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
96,585 |
151,430 |
248,526 |
252,008 |
1 |
276,041 |
282,785 |
2 |
Cost of Sales |
(59,907) |
(96,345) |
(159,270) |
(161,585) |
1 |
(177,015) |
(181,486) |
3 |
||
Gross Profit |
36,678 |
55,085 |
89,256 |
90,423 |
1 |
99,026 |
101,298 |
2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
16,893 |
26,645 |
42,320 |
43,196 |
2 |
47,066 |
49,059 |
4 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
15,090 |
23,915 |
37,531 |
38,340 |
2 |
41,747 |
43,610 |
4 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
14,864 |
23,043 |
36,659 |
37,293 |
2 |
40,875 |
42,438 |
4 |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
11,641 |
18,312 |
29,401 |
29,909 |
2 |
33,109 |
34,375 |
4 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
20.3 |
29.9 |
46.8 |
47.6 |
2 |
50.9 |
52.7 |
4 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
11.2 |
12.4 |
33.3 |
34.1 |
2 |
41.2 |
43.2 |
5 |
Dividend per share (pence) |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,650) |
(11,094) |
(25,990) |
(19,106) |
(26) |
(47,438) |
(38,848) |
(18) |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
96,585 |
151,430 |
252,254 |
283,276 |
Cost of Sales |
(59,907) |
(96,345) |
(161,749) |
(181,812) |
||
Gross Profit (inc multimedia tax credits) |
36,678 |
55,085 |
90,505 |
101,464 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
16,893 |
26,645 |
43,249 |
49,134 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
15,090 |
23,915 |
38,389 |
43,676 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(1,629) |
(3,038) |
(4,000) |
(4,400) |
||
Exceptionals |
(1,316) |
(3,016) |
(2,784) |
0 |
||
Other |
(686) |
(1,426) |
(1,854) |
(2,410) |
||
Operating Profit |
11,459 |
16,435 |
29,751 |
36,866 |
||
Net Interest |
(287) |
(872) |
(1,047) |
(1,172) |
||
FOREX |
(1,737) |
(3,569) |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
14,864 |
23,043 |
37,342 |
42,504 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
9,435 |
11,994 |
28,704 |
35,694 |
Tax |
(3,223) |
(4,731) |
(7,394) |
(8,076) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
11,641 |
18,312 |
29,948 |
34,428 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
6,212 |
7,263 |
21,310 |
27,618 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
55.9 |
58.7 |
62.4 |
63.9 |
||
EPS |
|
|
20.9 |
31.2 |
48.0 |
53.9 |
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
20.3 |
29.9 |
47.7 |
52.8 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
11.2 |
12.4 |
34.2 |
43.2 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.33 |
1.46 |
1.61 |
1.77 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
38.0% |
36.4% |
35.9% |
35.8% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
17.5% |
17.6% |
17.1% |
17.3% |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
15.6% |
15.8% |
15.2% |
15.4% |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
61,873 |
143,872 |
153,084 |
153,047 |
Intangible Assets |
55,495 |
132,555 |
140,061 |
139,119 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5,498 |
10,111 |
11,817 |
12,722 |
||
Investments |
880 |
1,206 |
1,206 |
1,206 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
38,677 |
80,182 |
96,823 |
120,231 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
13,879 |
27,473 |
36,053 |
39,659 |
||
Cash |
17,020 |
30,374 |
38,435 |
58,237 |
||
Other |
7,778 |
22,335 |
22,335 |
22,335 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(27,830) |
(52,503) |
(47,466) |
(43,515) |
Creditors |
(19,805) |
(33,560) |
(28,523) |
(24,572) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(8,025) |
(18,943) |
(18,943) |
(18,943) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(6,016) |
(10,420) |
(10,365) |
(10,365) |
Long term borrowings |
(345) |
(337) |
(337) |
(337) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(5,671) |
(10,083) |
(10,028) |
(10,028) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
66,704 |
161,131 |
192,076 |
219,398 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
17,168 |
18,373 |
36,434 |
40,390 |
Net Interest |
(58) |
(253) |
(1,047) |
(1,172) |
||
Tax |
(2,129) |
(4,731) |
(7,394) |
(8,076) |
||
Capex |
(2,306) |
(3,803) |
(6,121) |
(6,364) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(21,104) |
(87,074) |
(12,784) |
(3,842) |
||
Financing |
643 |
82,936 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(825) |
(867) |
(1,026) |
(1,134) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(8,611) |
4,581 |
8,062 |
19,802 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(17,284) |
(8,650) |
(11,094) |
(19,155) |
Forex gain on cash |
1 |
(1) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(24) |
(2,136) |
(1) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,650) |
(11,094) |
(19,155) |
(38,957) |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Company data
|
|
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