Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
GBP5,792m
Research: Industrials
The aerospace cycle is in strong recovery mode and Melrose Industries, assisted by the restructuring actions, is taking full advantage at both the top line and profit level. Internal momentum and market recovery provide confidence that management’s target returns set out for FY25 will be achieved, offering a further positive valuation catalyst.
Melrose Industries |
Increasing trajectory |
Trading update |
Aerospace and defence |
17 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Melrose Industries is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The aerospace cycle is in strong recovery mode and Melrose Industries, assisted by the restructuring actions, is taking full advantage at both the top line and profit level. Internal momentum and market recovery provide confidence that management’s target returns set out for FY25 will be achieved, offering a further positive valuation catalyst.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
2,957 |
62 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
127 |
0.4 |
12/23e |
3,372 |
317 |
18.6 |
4.2 |
28.1 |
0.8 |
12/24e |
3,657 |
441 |
27.0 |
6.3 |
19.3 |
1.2 |
12/25e |
4,150 |
589 |
37.2 |
9.3 |
14.0 |
1.8 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Trading update: Positive momentum continues
The group continues to benefit from the strong recovery in the aerospace sector, both original equipment and aftermarket. In the four-month period to the end of October, Engines revenue increased by 18%, with the operating margin ‘comfortably in excess of’ 25% (H123: 24.5%), assisted in particular by the strong aftermarket, which was up 24%. Structures revenue increased by 17%, with the operating margin above 4% (H123: 2.5%). The strong margin improvement came from business improvement projects, including the restructuring benefits from global plant consolidation, repricing contracts and exiting of inherently unprofitable business.
Forecast changes: Further upgrades
Management has increased its guidance for FY23 and provided initial guidance for FY24. These are factored into our new forecasts. We have increased FY23 PBT by 10.2%, from £288m to £317m, and EPS from 16.8p to 18.6p. We have increased FY24 PBT by 16.1%, from £415m to £441m and EPS from 24.9p to 27.0p. Note that we have not changed our FY25 forecasts, which reflect management’s initial margin targets set in May. Depending on divisional revenues, these targets suggest an overall operating margin of c 16.8% in FY25. Margins of c 12% in FY23 and c 15% in FY24 suggest a positive trajectory to achieving these targets which, despite the better-than-expected trading, remain unchanged.
Valuation: Upgrade by 2.3%
We have adjusted our valuation for the improved trading to 643p/share, up from 628p. We use a combination of peer valuations and cash net present value (NPV) for the Risk and Revenue Sharing Partnerships (RRSPs) activities. In addition, we estimate potential upside from the share buyback of c 5p/share and dilution from crystallisation of the management incentive scheme due in May 2024 at a maximum of 20p/share.
Trading update
The group continues to benefit from the strong recovery being seen in the aerospace sector, both in terms of new build rates supporting the original equipment business and in the important aftermarket as flying hours recover, boosting the RRSPs business within the Engines division. Management has increased guidance for FY23 and provided initial guidance for FY24.
Trading in the four-month period July to October
Engines revenue growth of 18% (H123: 19%) with operating margins ‘comfortably in excess of’ 25% (H123: 24.5%). The business continues to benefit from the strong aftermarket, up 24%, which also assists the margin mix, while overcoming some of the supply-side constraints currently being seen in the industry. Structures revenue growth was 17% (H123: 13%) with operating margins above 4% (H123: 2.5%). Along with market recovery, business improvement projects, including the restructuring benefits from global plant consolidation, repricing contracts and exiting inherently unprofitable business, are assisting positive margin recovery.
FY23 management guidance
Management guidance for Aerospace revenue is £3.3–3.4bn and for Aerospace adjusted operating profit (pre-central costs) is between £400–410m with a margin of over 12% (Engines 25% and Structures 4% or more). The guidance for Aerospace adjusted EBITDA is £545–555m. Leverage at the year-end is expected to see net debt/EBITDA of 1.3x.
FY24 initial management guidance
Management guidance for Aerospace revenue is £3.5–3.7bn and Aerospace adjusted operating profit is £520–540m with adjusted operating margin c 15%. Guidance for Aerospace adjusted EBITDA is £680–700m. Leverage post the buy-back (£500m currently underway) and GTF cash requirements (see our update note for details) are to be below net debt/EBITDA of 2x.
Our key takeaways
■
End-markets remain strong. Aerospace end-markets continue to recover strongly, with order books for civil at record levels and production schedules expected to continue to recover, albeit only returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
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Exhibit 1: Civil airliner delivery expectations Boeing and Airbus (number of aircraft) |
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Source: Boeing, Airbus |
■
FY25 management guidance is starting to look conservative. Management has previously set margin targets for the Engines (28%) and Structures (9%) divisions. Depending on growth rates, we estimate that this equates to an overall margin of c 16.8%. The operating margin was 6.3% in 2022. Management is guiding to 12% in FY23 and 15% in FY24, suggesting a pathway at the very least in line with these FY25 targets.
■
Management has provided no further guidance for the recent GE Aerospace contract. At the original equipment level, revenue is only likely to come through in FY25/26; the additional RRSP revenue will be later but will obviously be positive for Melrose’s cash flows and valuation.
Forecast changes
Exhibit 2 highlights the changes we have made following management’s new guidance.
Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts
£m |
2023e |
2024e |
||||
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
Revenues |
3,410 |
3,372 |
(1.1%) |
3,605 |
3,657 |
1.4% |
EBITDA |
505 |
544 |
7.8% |
638 |
688 |
7.7% |
EBITDA margin |
14.8% |
16.1% |
1.3% |
17.7% |
18.8% |
6.2% |
Aerospace operating profit |
380 |
409 |
7.7% |
501 |
543 |
8.3% |
Aerospace operating margin |
11.1% |
12.1% |
1.0% |
13.9% |
14.8% |
0.9% |
Normalised operating profit |
350 |
379 |
8.4% |
476 |
518 |
8.7% |
Normalised operating profit margin |
10.3% |
11.2% |
1.0% |
13.2% |
14.2% |
0.9% |
Normalised PBT |
288 |
317 |
10.2% |
415 |
441 |
6.1% |
Normalised basic EPS (p) |
16.8 |
18.6 |
10.4% |
24.9 |
27.0 |
8.3% |
Dividend per share (p) |
4.2 |
4.2 |
0.0% |
6.3 |
6.3 |
0.0% |
Net debt/(cash) |
720 |
687 |
4.5% |
1,023 |
1,139 |
(11.3%) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3 highlights the changes made to our forecasts since the demerger of Dowlais automotive group.
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Exhibit 3: Changes to Edison EPS forecasts since demerger (p/share) |
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research |
Valuation
Our valuation methodology is unchanged from our re-initiation note, post the demerger. We split the valuation into two parts: the RRSPs and the main Aerospace manufacturing operations in Structures and Engines.
Engine RRSPs
Exhibit 4 provides a summary of our discounted cash flow or NPV of the RRSPs cash flows relative to discount rates. Our 7.6% WACC is consistent with leverage of 2.0x EBITDA (we note that the FY23 forecast is 1.3x but will rise through the share buyback programme).
Exhibit 4: RRSP valuation
|
Cost of debt |
WACC |
Melrose cost of equity |
Discount rate (%) |
5.5 |
7.6 |
9.2 |
NPV (£bn) |
7.2 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 5 provides a valuation for the group’s non-RRSP activities using a quoted peer group of aerospace component suppliers.
Exhibit 5: Aerospace ex-RRSPs valuation
|
Currency |
Share price |
Market cap |
EV/EBIT (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
|||||||
|
Local |
£m |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
||||
FACC |
EUR |
6.3 |
246 |
27.1 |
15.3 |
11.3 |
8.7 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
|||
Magellan |
CAD |
7.4 |
248 |
7.7 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.8 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
|||
MTU |
EUR |
213 |
9,815 |
15.2 |
13.8 |
12.1 |
10.9 |
10.0 |
9.0 |
|||
Safran |
EUR |
146 |
52,280 |
20.2 |
16.0 |
13.2 |
14.5 |
12.1 |
10.4 |
|||
Senior |
GBp |
175.6 |
740 |
19.4 |
14.6 |
11.2 |
9.1 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
|||
Spirit |
USD |
21.0 |
1,760 |
-29.5 |
11.7 |
6.7 |
18.3 |
6.3 |
4.8 |
|||
Triumph |
USD |
9.1 |
556 |
11.8 |
9.7 |
8.7 |
9.5 |
8.0 |
7.2 |
|||
Average |
15.2 |
12.3 |
9.8 |
11.0 |
7.9 |
6.8 |
||||||
Melrose ex-RRSPs (EBIT/EBITDA - £m) |
253 |
270 |
463 |
403 |
430 |
633 |
||||||
Melrose ex-RRSPs valuation (£m) |
3,844 |
3,329 |
4,534 |
4,421 |
3,407 |
4,297 |
||||||
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 16 November.
Combining these two valuations provides an overall valuation for the group. Note that the valuation does not take into account of the management incentive plan, which matures in May 2024. We estimate that full payout would reduce the valuation by c 20p share. There is further potential upside from the buyback, which we estimate at 5p a share. Our new valuation of 643p increases by 2.3% and is now 5.7% higher than our re-initiation note in May.
Exhibit 6: Overall valuation, £m
Old |
New |
|
Melrose ex-RRSPs average of EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA |
3,740 |
3,960 |
RRSPs DCF valuation |
5,300 |
5,300 |
Melrose net debt on demerger/year end |
(553) |
(687) |
Melrose equity valuation |
8,487 |
8,573 |
Number of shares in issue (m) |
1,351 |
1,335 |
Value per Melrose share (p) |
628 |
642 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 7: Financial summary
£m |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
|
Year to December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||
Revenue |
|
2,957 |
3,372 |
3,657 |
4,150 |
EBITDA |
|
292 |
544 |
688 |
848 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
147 |
379 |
518 |
673 |
|
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(260) |
(300) |
(300) |
(300) |
|
Exceptionals |
(157) |
(200) |
(50) |
(10) |
|
Reported operating profit |
(270) |
(121) |
168 |
363 |
|
Net Interest |
(85) |
(62) |
(77) |
(84) |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
62 |
317 |
441 |
589 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
(355) |
(183) |
91 |
279 |
Reported tax |
99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Profit After Tax (norm) |
48 |
251 |
348 |
466 |
|
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(256) |
(183) |
91 |
279 |
|
Minority interests |
(5) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Discontinued operations |
(80) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net income (normalised) |
43 |
251 |
348 |
466 |
|
Net income (reported) |
(341) |
(183) |
91 |
279 |
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
1,406 |
1,348 |
1,290 |
1,250 |
|
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
4.1 |
18.6 |
27.0 |
37.2 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
4.1 |
17.9 |
25.9 |
35.7 |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
(18.6) |
(13.6) |
7.0 |
22.3 |
Dividend (p) |
2.33 |
4.20 |
6.30 |
9.31 |
|
Revenue growth (%) |
8.5 |
17.5 |
12.9 |
13.2 |
|
EBITDA Margin (%) |
9.9 |
16.1 |
18.8 |
20.4 |
|
Aerospace Operating Margin (%) |
6.3 |
12.1 |
14.8 |
16.8 |
|
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
5.0 |
11.2 |
14.2 |
16.2 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||
Fixed Assets |
|
11,114 |
5,381 |
5,124 |
4,867 |
Intangible Assets |
6,882 |
3,498 |
3,198 |
2,898 |
|
Tangible Assets |
2,599 |
811 |
854 |
897 |
|
Investments & other |
1,633 |
1,072 |
1,072 |
1,072 |
|
Current Assets |
|
2,873 |
1,538 |
1,630 |
1,731 |
Stocks |
1,025 |
573 |
610 |
650 |
|
Debtors |
1,426 |
857 |
912 |
972 |
|
Cash & cash equivalents |
355 |
85 |
85 |
85 |
|
Other |
67 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
|
Current Liabilities |
|
2,978 |
1,576 |
1,638 |
1,706 |
Creditors |
2,347 |
1,260 |
1,342 |
1,430 |
|
Tax and social security |
141 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
|
Short term borrowings |
63 |
63 |
63 |
63 |
|
Other |
427 |
221 |
201 |
181 |
|
Long Term Liabilities |
|
3,841 |
1,638 |
1,321 |
817 |
Long term borrowings |
1,433 |
709 |
1,161 |
1,073 |
|
Other long term liabilities |
2,408 |
929 |
160 |
(256) |
|
Net Assets |
|
7,168 |
3,704 |
3,795 |
4,074 |
Minority interests |
39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
|
7,129 |
3,704 |
3,795 |
4,074 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||
Operating Cash Flow |
292 |
544 |
688 |
848 |
|
Working capital |
(148) |
(74) |
(109) |
(99) |
|
Exceptional & other |
(83) |
(180) |
(210) |
(150) |
|
Tax |
(8) |
(73) |
(95) |
(124) |
|
Net operating cash flow |
|
53 |
217 |
267 |
476 |
Capex |
(31) |
(190) |
(213) |
(219) |
|
Acquisitions/disposals |
(7) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net interest |
(82) |
(72) |
(75) |
(78) |
|
Equity financing |
0 |
(125) |
(375) |
0 |
|
Dividends |
(77) |
(20) |
(63) |
(91) |
|
Other |
|||||
Net Cash Flow |
(144) |
(190) |
(452) |
87 |
|
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
343 |
487 |
687 |
1,139 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
487 |
687 |
1,139 |
1,051 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
|
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