Airbus reported Q218 adjusted EBIT well ahead of consensus, on sales modestly better than market forecasts. The beat was mainly driven by improvements on the A350 programme. Guidance is unchanged except for the addition of the A220 in H218. Prospects for Airbus Defence & Space (ADS) and Helicopters also appear to be improving, and as civil aircraft delivers improving financials, group cash and earnings should grow strongly into the next decade.
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Airbus |
Increasing rewards from civil aircraft
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Aerospace & defence |
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27 July 2018 |
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Airbus is a client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Airbus reported Q218 adjusted EBIT well ahead of consensus, on sales modestly better than market forecasts. The beat was mainly driven by improvements on the A350 programme. Guidance is unchanged except for the addition of the A220 in H218. Prospects for Airbus Defence & Space (ADS) and Helicopters also appear to be improving, and as civil aircraft delivers improving financials, group cash and earnings should grow strongly into the next decade.
Q218 shows strong progress
Sales rose 8% to €14.9bn (consensus €14.6bn, Q217 €13.7bn) and adjusted EBIT almost doubled to €1,142m from €572m in Q217 (consensus €988m). The higher profit was largely attributed to reduced losses on the A350 programme as recurring costs fall, learning curve benefits accrue as the ramp up matures and a favourable price mix (a lower proportion of deliveries with launch discounts). Engine supply issues seem to be subsiding on the A320 programme, with more neos (new engine options) than ceos (current engine options) delivered for the first time in June. Overall civil adjusted EBIT rose to €908m (Q217 €360m). Airbus Helicopters and ADS also improved with adjusted EBIT rising to €138m (Q217 €86m) and €197m (Q217 €180m) respectively on flat revenues in each division, allowing for disposals. H118 group sales were relatively flat at €25.0bn (H117 €25.2bn) and adjusted EBIT doubled to €1.2bn (H117 €0.6bn). A modest €129m Q218 underlying free cash outflow also improved thanks to recovering deliveries, higher pre delivery payments and lower payments to engine suppliers due to Q1 supply delays.
Guidance indicates solid growth
Guidance is unchanged except for the addition of the A220 (formerly the C-Series) programme in H218 following Airbus’s entry. Airbus still expects to deliver around 800 aircraft in 2018, excluding 18 A220’s. Group guidance is now for adjusted EBIT of €5.0bn for FY18, including an EBIT loss of €0.2bn from the A220 that is yet to be reflected in consensus. FCF before M&A and customer financing of close to €3bn for the ongoing business is reduced by €0.3bn by the A220. However, at the net cash level the A220 cash outflow is largely mitigated by the funding agreement, as will be the outflows through to 2021.
Valuation: Rating reflects growth potential
As ADS and Helicopters prospects also appear to be improving and the civil aircraft activity generates increasing returns from the improving new aircraft programmes, EPS and cash flow should sustain strong growth, supporting a 19.6x FY19e PER.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg |
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Research: TMT
Kape’s trading update confirms good progress. Driven by the core App distribution business, EBITDA has increased by 48% to $4.3m. The disposal of the non-core Media division, following hot on the heels of the Intego acquisition essentially completes Kape’s transition into a wholly focused consumer cybersecurity business. We leave our underlying profit forecasts broadly unchanged (34% EBITDA growth between FY18e and FY19e). While the disposal trims 7% from our FY19 EPS forecasts, we believe that the group’s performance and rating should benefit from the being 100% focused on consumer cybersecurity.