Last close As at 05/08/2026
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EUR21m
Research: TMT
CLIQ Digital delivered a disappointing start to FY24 in Q124, as its membership base fell following a change in refund programmes from credit card providers, making it easier for subscribers to cancel. Revenues fell 12%, while marketing expenses, a key growth driver for CLIQ, dropped 9% as management sought to protect its gross margin. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 7%, driven by the decline in sales. Management has initiated its Fit for Future transformation strategy to drive operational efficiencies, while diversifying its marketing channels from traditional display advertising into search engine advertising (SEA), affiliation and B2B partnerships. The company has cut FY24 revenue guidance by 13–17%, while EBITDA is now expected to be 48–50% lower than previously. Consequently, we have lowered our forecasts, now anticipating revenue of €305m and EBITDA of €26m in FY24 and revenue of €329m and EBITDA of €30m in FY25.
Written by
Cliq Digital |
Increased churn weakens FY24 outlook |
Q124 results |
Media |
14 May 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
Cliq Digital is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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CLIQ Digital delivered a disappointing start to FY24 in Q124, as its membership base fell following a change in refund programmes from credit card providers, making it easier for subscribers to cancel. Revenues fell 12%, while marketing expenses, a key growth driver for CLIQ, dropped 9% as management sought to protect its gross margin. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 7%, driven by the decline in sales. Management has initiated its Fit for Future transformation strategy to drive operational efficiencies, while diversifying its marketing channels from traditional display advertising into search engine advertising (SEA), affiliation and B2B partnerships. The company has cut FY24 revenue guidance by 13–17%, while EBITDA is now expected to be 48–50% lower than previously. Consequently, we have lowered our forecasts, now anticipating revenue of €305m and EBITDA of €26m in FY24 and revenue of €329m and EBITDA of €30m in FY25.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
276.1 |
43.5 |
4.47 |
1.79 |
1.9 |
20.8 |
12/23 |
326.4 |
50.3 |
4.91 |
0.00 |
1.8 |
N/A |
12/24e |
305.1 |
26.1 |
2.10 |
0.04 |
4.1 |
0.5 |
12/25e |
329.3 |
29.5 |
2.57 |
0.00 |
3.3 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Q124 highlight impact of credit card refunds
CLIQ’s Q124 results demonstrated a weaker backdrop and a higher churn rate due to refund policy changes from credit card providers, affecting its membership base, which fell 7% q-o-q to 1.1 million. Revenue dropped 12% to €72.0m (Q123: €82.9m), while adjusted EBITDA, before €3.5m in items related to the transformation programme, more than halved to €5.3m (Q123: €12.8m). CLIQ continued its share buyback programme in the quarter, repurchasing 10% of the allotted volume for €1.1m.
Fit for Future transformation strategy
In response to the weaker backdrop affecting sales, management initiated its Fit for Future transformation programme to streamline the business. This involved several efficiency measures in Q124 to lower the cost base, including the closure of its UK office. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, CLIQ will utilise alternative marketing channels to its traditional display advertising such as SEA, affiliation and B2B, to generate higher sales and profitability.
Valuation: Substantial discount to peers
Reflecting the cut to guidance, CLIQ’s share price has more than halved in the year to date. CLIQ trades at discount of 90% to peer average (ex-Netflix) EV/sales multiples in FY24e and FY25e. Priced at parity to peers on this basis, CLIQ’s implied share price would be €73, reflecting substantial upside to the current price. Stable trading and consistent financials could close this valuation gap.
Changes to forecasts
We have lowered our forecasts following CLIQ’s updated guidance, which now expects revenue within a range of €300–330m (previously €360–380m), marketing expenditure of €120–140m (previously €150–170m) and adjusted EBITDA of €26–30m (previously €52–58m). We have reduced our revenue forecasts by 19% in FY24 and 25% in FY25, resulting in revenue of €305m and €329m, respectively. We expect marketing costs to be brought down by 10% to €122m in FY24 as CLIQ looks to protect its gross margin. Subsequently, we anticipate reported EBITDA of €26.1m in FY24 and €29.5m in FY25, reflecting lower revenues and some wage inflation in the cost base, offset partially by the lower marketing costs. These reflect lower margins of 8.5% and 9.0% in FY24 and FY25, respectively (previously 14.9% in both years). The reduction in profitability lowers our expected cash flow, resulting in a 53% lower net cash position of €16.5m at end FY24 and 65% lower at end FY25 at €17.7m. The lower net cash position also reflects the progress made in the share buyback programme in the year to date and the small dividend of €0.04 per share paid following the AGM in April.
Exhibit 1: Summary forecast changes
€m |
FY24e old |
FY24e new |
Change |
FY25e old |
FY25e new |
Change |
Gross revenue |
375.3 |
305.1 |
-19% |
439.1 |
329.3 |
-25% |
Marketing spend |
157.1 |
121.9 |
-22% |
180.6 |
129.2 |
-28% |
EBITDA |
56.0 |
26.1 |
-53% |
65.5 |
29.5 |
-55% |
EBITDA margin |
14.9% |
8.5% |
-6.4pp |
14.9% |
9.0% |
-6.0pp |
Adjusted EBIT |
52.5 |
21.0 |
-60% |
60.5 |
25.5 |
-58% |
Normalised EPS (€) |
5.5 |
2.1 |
-62% |
6.4 |
2.6 |
-60% |
Net cash |
35.1 |
16.5 |
-53% |
51.1 |
17.7 |
-65% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€m |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
|
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
150.0 |
276.1 |
326.4 |
305.1 |
329.3 |
Cost of Sales |
(98.8) |
(201.3) |
(241.7) |
(240.1) |
(257.6) |
|
Gross Profit |
51.2 |
74.8 |
84.6 |
65.0 |
71.7 |
|
EBITDA |
|
27.2 |
43.5 |
50.3 |
26.1 |
29.5 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
26.3 |
42.1 |
45.9 |
21.0 |
25.5 |
Reported operating profit |
26.3 |
42.1 |
45.9 |
21.0 |
25.5 |
|
Net Interest |
(0.9) |
(1.2) |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
25.3 |
40.9 |
45.0 |
20.2 |
24.6 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
25.3 |
40.9 |
45.0 |
20.2 |
24.6 |
Reported tax |
(7.1) |
(11.9) |
(13.2) |
(6.3) |
(7.7) |
|
Profit After Tax (norm) |
18.2 |
29.0 |
32.0 |
13.9 |
17.0 |
|
Profit After Tax (reported) |
18.2 |
29.0 |
31.8 |
13.9 |
17.0 |
|
Minority interests |
0.4 |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
Net income (normalised) |
17.8 |
29.1 |
32.0 |
13.6 |
16.6 |
|
Net income (reported) |
17.8 |
29.0 |
31.8 |
13.6 |
16.6 |
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
|
EPS - normalised (€) |
|
2.74 |
4.47 |
4.91 |
2.10 |
2.57 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (€) |
|
2.71 |
4.45 |
4.84 |
2.07 |
2.54 |
Dividend (€) |
1.10 |
1.79 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
|
Revenue growth (%) |
40.2 |
84.1 |
18.2 |
(-6.5) |
0.0 |
|
Gross Margin (%) |
34.1 |
27.1 |
25.9 |
21.3 |
21.8 |
|
EBITDA Margin (%) |
18.1 |
15.8 |
15.4 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
|
Normalised Operating Margin |
17.5 |
15.2 |
14.1 |
6.9 |
7.7 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
59.4 |
65.1 |
69.9 |
77.9 |
86.8 |
Intangible Assets |
2.6 |
8.4 |
12.1 |
19.9 |
28.5 |
|
Tangible Assets |
3.8 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
|
Goodwill & other |
53.0 |
51.7 |
53.8 |
54.0 |
54.2 |
|
Current Assets |
|
36.9 |
70.0 |
84.8 |
97.2 |
110.1 |
Receivables |
12.5 |
13.6 |
20.5 |
29.3 |
40.6 |
|
Cash & cash equivalents |
7.3 |
16.8 |
15.7 |
16.5 |
17.5 |
|
Other |
17.1 |
39.6 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
52.0 |
|
Current Liabilities |
|
(27.3) |
(31.2) |
(33.9) |
(38.1) |
(43.3) |
Creditors |
(7.9) |
(9.5) |
(13.1) |
(17.8) |
(23.2) |
|
Tax |
(1.2) |
(2.6) |
(6.9) |
(6.9) |
(6.9) |
|
Borrowings |
(5.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Provisions |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
|
Other |
(12.8) |
(18.7) |
(13.5) |
(13.1) |
(12.8) |
|
Long Term Liabilities |
|
(9.4) |
(22.6) |
(17.7) |
(21.4) |
(21.1) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
(6.6) |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
Other long term liabilities |
(9.4) |
(16.0) |
(17.7) |
(21.6) |
(21.5) |
|
Net Assets |
|
59.6 |
81.3 |
103.1 |
115.6 |
132.5 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
0.2 |
0.6 |
|
Shareholders’ equity |
|
59.5 |
81.4 |
103.2 |
115.4 |
131.9 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
26.8 |
44.9 |
53.2 |
25.2 |
28.6 |
|
Working capital |
(1.2) |
(18.1) |
(19.9) |
(4.0) |
(5.9) |
|
Exceptional & other |
1.3 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
Tax |
(6.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.3) |
(7.2) |
(8.6) |
|
Operating cash flow |
|
20.8 |
23.8 |
30.4 |
14.9 |
15.0 |
Capex |
(3.3) |
(9.6) |
(10.7) |
(11.8) |
(13.0) |
|
Acquisitions/disposals |
(10.3) |
1.5 |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Net interest |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Dividends |
(3.3) |
(7.2) |
(11.6) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
|
Other |
(2.5) |
(0.9) |
(2.0) |
(1.0) |
(0.8) |
|
Net Cash Flow |
1.4 |
7.7 |
5.8 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
|
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
(0.9) |
(2.3) |
(9.9) |
(15.7) |
(16.5) |
FX |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
(2.3) |
(9.9) |
(15.7) |
(16.5) |
(17.7) |
Source: CLIQ Digital, Edison Investment Research
|
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