Newmont Corporation — In line with expectations

Newmont Corporation (TSX: NEM)

Last close As at 20/06/2024

49.02

0.18 (0.37%)

Market capitalisation

USD37,024m

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Research: Metals & Mining

Newmont Corporation — In line with expectations

Newmont’s Q322 results were closely in line with our prior expectations (see our note, Q3 forecasts refined, published on 14 October). Although revenue was 5.6% below our forecast for the quarter (in part on account of provisionally priced sales at the end of Q2, but also on account of the timing of shipments from Penasquito), this was roughly balanced by costs (in US$m), which were 4.8% lower, to result in pre-tax profits that were within 1.0% (or US$3m) and adjusted net income that was within 4.1% (or US$9m) of our prior forecasts. At the same time, Newmont’s Q3 dividend was held at US$0.55/share for the quarter which, among other things, augurs well for future payouts at the current gold price.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals & Mining

Newmont Corporation

In line with expectations

Q322 results

Metals and mining

2 November 2022

Price

US$42.32

Market cap

US$33.6bn

Net debt (US$m) at end-September 2022 (including US$653m in time deposits)

2,416

Shares in issue

793m

Free float

99.8%

Code

NEM

Primary exchange

NYSE

Secondary exchange

TSX

Share price performance

Business description

Newmont Corporation is the world’s leading gold company with a world-class portfolio of assets in the Americas, Australia and Africa. It is the only gold producer in the S&P 500 Index and is widely recognised for its ESG practices and as a leader in value creation, safety and mine execution.

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Newmont Corporation is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Newmont’s Q322 results were closely in line with our prior expectations (see our note, Q3 forecasts refined, published on 14 October). Although revenue was 5.6% below our forecast for the quarter (in part on account of provisionally priced sales at the end of Q2, but also on account of the timing of shipments from Penasquito), this was roughly balanced by costs (in US$m), which were 4.8% lower, to result in pre-tax profits that were within 1.0% (or US$3m) and adjusted net income that was within 4.1% (or US$9m) of our prior forecasts. At the same time, Newmont’s Q3 dividend was held at US$0.55/share for the quarter which, among other things, augurs well for future payouts at the current gold price.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/20

11,497

3,143

2.66

1.45

15.9

3.4

12/21

12,222

1,108

2.97

2.20

14.2

5.2

12/22e

11,793

1,788

1.83

2.20

23.1

5.2

12/23e

11,959

2,665

2.10

2.20

20.2

5.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Attributable production for the quarter amounted to 1,487koz, which is 3.1% below our prior expectation, albeit in line with Newmont’s reiterated guidance for FY22 of 6,000koz at a cost applicable to sales of US$900/oz. Costs applicable to sales in Q3 were US$968/oz, which was 4.0% above our forecast of US$931/oz. Geographically, North America was an area of notable outperformance, with production recovering by 27.8% relative to Q222 and now firmly above pre-COVID levels after two relatively weak quarters in Q122 and Q222 and costs applicable to sales 7.9% below our prior forecast at US$980/oz. However, this was broadly offset by lower than expected production, and higher than expected costs, in both South America and Australia, while both production and costs were broadly in line with our prior expectations in Africa. Capital expenditure remained steady relative to Q222, at US$529m, primarily owing to higher development capital spend, primarily relating to Tanami Expansion 2, Yanacocha Sulphides, Ahafo North, Pamour and Cerro Negro District Expansion 1.

At the time of our last note (when its share price was US$42.28), we calculated an ex-growth, terminal value for Newmont, as at end-FY27, of US$52.73/share (using a real discount rate of 6.71%), which equated to an immediate valuation of US$48.12/share in FY22 after intervening dividends were taken into account. However, this valuation rose to US$76.62/share in FY27 if the growth in real cash flows thereafter amounted to just 2.0% per year (ie the minimum that might reasonably be expected given the average historical annual increase in the real gold price of 2.0% pa) and to US$64.30/share as at the start of FY22. In the meantime, in both historical and relative terms, Newmont remains cheap with respect to its dividend yield, which we continue to calculate at in excess of 5% and higher than 83% of its peers’ dividend yields over the next three years. Q4 is expected to be Newmont’s strongest quarter and we will review our Q422 and FY22 forecasts and valuation in a fuller note in due course. However, given Q3 results and the current level of the gold price (US$1,652/oz cf US$1,676/oz at the time of our last note), at the moment, we would expect any changes to be immaterial.

General disclaimer and copyright

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Newmont Corporation and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Newmont Corporation. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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