Last close As at 27/10/2026
CHF72.20
▲ 3.30 (4.79%)
Market capitalisation
CHF971m
Research: Healthcare
Basilea has materially raised FY26 guidance, with Cresemba- and Zevtera-related revenue now expected at c CHF250m versus CHF210m guided in August and operating profit at c CHF115m versus CHF70m. The upgrade is driven mainly by higher milestone income, now c CHF65m versus CHF35m. With CHF4.7m recognised in H126, guidance implies around CHF60m in H2, which we believe could reflect broadly similar contributions from Pfizer and Astellas. Higher-margin revenue, alongside slightly lower R&D spend, highlights the strength of Basilea’s capital-efficient, partner-led model. Separately, FDA/EMA feedback has enabled a streamlined CTB-LEDA Phase II/III programme, lowering expected patient requirements and development costs, albeit with a modest timeline delay. Fosmanogepix remains on track for mid-2028 Phase III readouts, and we expect further detail at today’s capital markets day. We will present updated estimates in due course.
| Year end | Revenue (CHFm) | EBITDA (CHFm) | PBT (CHFm) | EPS (CHF) | P/E (x) | EV/EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/24 | 208.5 | 62.9 | 60.6 | 6.44 | 11.2 | 13.0 |
| 12/25 | 232.4 | 53.4 | 46.2 | 3.31 | 21.8 | 15.4 |
While the guidance upgrade was not entirely unexpected, given Cresemba’s recent sales momentum, the magnitude of the upgrade is notable. Basilea now expects c CHF310m in total FY26 revenue, up c 33% y-o-y, and operating profit of c CHF115m, more than double the FY25 figure of CHF51.5m. Revenue is expected to comprise c CHF130m of royalty income, CHF65m of milestones and CHF55m of product revenue from Cresemba and Zevtera, implying around CHF5m of incremental contribution from both royalties and product revenue versus previous expectations. Cresemba’s continued momentum supports the stronger outlook, with in-market sales reaching $817m in the 12 months to June 2026, up 25% y-o-y. Basilea has accordingly raised its 2026–30 cumulative cash flow target from Cresemba and Zevtera to CHF650m from CHF600m, of which c CHF215m is expected to be generated in FY26.
The CTB-LEDA update is more nuanced. Following FDA and EMA discussions, Basilea now plans a single Phase II/III umbrella study rather than potentially requiring two separate Phase III trials. The study is expected to commence by mid-2027 and the Phase II component is expected to read out by end-2028, with the investor presentation indicating Phase III data around 2029/30. This implies a modest delay versus our prior assumptions and could potentially shift launch from 2030 to 2031. Patient requirements and development costs will likely be lower, while BARDA’s commitment of up to $159m should continue to limit Basilea’s own funding burden. The protocol and final study design are still being finalised, so enrolment assumptions, timelines and costs may evolve before the targeted mid-2027 start.
Fosmanogepix remains the largest pipeline opportunity, with Basilea assigning c $1.0bn peak-sales potential. Both Phase III studies remain on track for mid-2028 readouts, with recruitment complete in the salvage cohort of the invasive mould study. We expect further detail at today’s capital markets day (CMD) on the timing and scope of the initial regulatory filings, including how Basilea plans to use data from both studies to support regulatory discussions. The CMD should also provide further clarity on how fosmanogepix fits within Agenda 2030 and Basilea’s target of having four commercial products by 2030.
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Research: Healthcare
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