Takung Art’s Q118 results show it is making progress at reorienting its user base more towards the retail market, which significantly increases its potential reach. There has also been some success in the quarter in increasing the average listing values of the items listed on the trading platform and in diversifying the offering, with five new pieces of sports memorabilia listed in the period. The FY17 reconstruction makes direct comparison with Q117 figures of limited use. The share price is yet to reflect the scale or quality of the potential opportunity.
Takung Art |
Growing the retail base |
Q1 figures |
Retail |
22 May 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Takung Art is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Takung Art’s Q118 results show it is making progress at reorienting its user base more towards the retail market, which significantly increases its potential reach. There has also been some success in the quarter in increasing the average listing values of the items listed on the trading platform and in diversifying the offering, with five new pieces of sports memorabilia listed in the period. The FY17 reconstruction makes direct comparison with Q117 figures of limited use. The share price is yet to reflect the scale or quality of the potential opportunity.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
12/16 |
19.1 |
9.5 |
0.66 |
0.00 |
3.3 |
N/A |
1.2 |
12/17 |
12.9 |
(1.1) |
(0.15) |
0.00 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e** |
18.9 |
1.2 |
0.08 |
0.00 |
28.4 |
N/A |
7.0 |
12/19e** |
23.3 |
4.4 |
0.29 |
0.00 |
7.5 |
N/A |
2.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Revenues adjusted for change in accounting.
Driving up the quality
Takung has built a scalable tech platform that is also flexible enough to adapt to different categories of trading items. Short term, the group is offering reduced commission percentages to build the user base, while it is increasing the quality of the portfolios on offer. Management is also investing in additional people and property, with overhead recovery set to improve as the top line grows. The shift in emphasis has meant fewer portfolios being listed, but at higher average values. This included five paintings with an average listing value of $562k, compared with the 40 paintings listed since inception at an average of $486k. As at end March, the group had a total of 260 art listings, at an aggregate listing value of $62.8m. Q118 listing fees at $2.0m compared with Q417 at $0.8m.
On track for FY18e
Our EBITDA forecast is unchanged from our initiation note, but the adoption of new accounting principles alters the presentation of revenue. Commission rebates earned by traders and service agents were netted off against revenue, at an undisclosed level. These are now included as a cost of sales, at $606k in Q118, resulting in a reduction of the gross profit margin from 94% to 77% (note historic numbers are not restated).
Valuation: Considerable potential upside
Valuation is complicated by the recent changes in the group’s business model and lack of true peers. There are few quoted art market stocks with earnings forecasts, making the normal metrics unreliable. Valuations accorded to other art businesses and online retail/gaming and trading platforms suggest that Takung’s shares could trade markedly higher. A DCF on our model (excluding newer ventures or identified opportunities) implies a lower value. The two methods average out at $3.75. Continuing evidence of strong new listings and increased levels of platform trade should support our forecasts and provide catalysts for share price appreciation.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
31-December |
GAAP |
GAAP |
GAAP |
GAAP |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
19,143 |
12,922 |
18,909 |
23,255 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,129) |
(1,247) |
(4,349) |
(5,349) |
||
Gross Profit |
18,014 |
11,675 |
14,560 |
17,906 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
9,779 |
(338) |
1,713 |
4,825 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
9,255 |
(1,081) |
713 |
3,825 |
|
Share-based payments |
(813) |
(751) |
(250) |
(250) |
||
Reported operating profit |
8,443 |
(1,832) |
463 |
3,575 |
||
Net Interest |
(202) |
(601) |
(200) |
(150) |
||
Other income |
416 |
577 |
637 |
705 |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
9,469 |
(1,104) |
1,150 |
4,380 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
8,140 |
(719) |
900 |
4,130 |
Reported tax |
(1,769) |
(343) |
(225) |
(1,032) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
7,411 |
(1,631) |
863 |
3,285 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
6,371 |
(1,062) |
675 |
3,097 |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
FX translation adjustment |
(1,082) |
763 |
993 |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
6,329 |
(868) |
1,856 |
3,285 |
||
Net income (reported) |
5,289 |
(298) |
1,668 |
3,097 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
10,641 |
11,078 |
11,206 |
11,223 |
||
EPS - normalised ($) |
|
|
0.70 |
(0.15) |
0.08 |
0.29 |
EPS - diluted normalised ($) |
|
|
0.66 |
(0.15) |
0.08 |
0.29 |
EPS - basic reported ($) |
|
|
0.60 |
(0.10) |
0.06 |
0.28 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
69 |
(32) |
46 |
23 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
94 |
90 |
77 |
77 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
51 |
(3) |
9 |
21 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
48 |
(8) |
4 |
16 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,696 |
3,262 |
3,262 |
3,262 |
Intangible Assets |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,065 |
2,191 |
2,191 |
2,191 |
||
Investments & other |
610 |
1,049 |
1,049 |
1,049 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
45,540 |
49,567 |
54,090 |
60,339 |
Restricted cash |
21,743 |
25,274 |
27,801 |
30,581 |
||
Debtors |
3,059 |
2,292 |
3,072 |
4,541 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
13,395 |
11,867 |
12,642 |
13,869 |
||
Loan Receivables/Other |
7,342 |
10,134 |
10,575 |
11,348 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
30,603 |
34,911 |
37,581 |
40,361 |
Creditors |
22,712 |
26,906 |
29,575 |
32,355 |
||
Tax and social security |
550 |
313 |
313 |
313 |
||
Short term borrowings |
6,309 |
7,209 |
7,209 |
7,209 |
||
Other |
1,032 |
484 |
484 |
484 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
17,633 |
17,918 |
19,772 |
23,241 |
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
17,633 |
17,918 |
19,772 |
23,241 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
9,779 |
(338) |
1,713 |
4,825 |
||
Working capital |
(3,591) |
(4,001) |
(1,142) |
(2,121) |
||
Exceptional & other |
1,896 |
4,381 |
1,444 |
705 |
||
Tax |
(3,025) |
(1,830) |
(1,032) |
(1,032) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
5,059 |
(1,789) |
983 |
2,377 |
Capex |
(1,412) |
(814) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Loan payables/ loan receivables |
(66) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net interest |
(435) |
(526) |
(200) |
(150) |
||
Equity financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
1,032 |
1,000 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
4,178 |
(2,129) |
(217) |
1,227 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(10,769) |
(13,461) |
(12,492) |
(11,649) |
FX |
(1,552) |
1,360 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
66 |
(199) |
(625) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(13,461) |
(12,492) |
(11,649) |
(12,876) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
PDL’s recent Q118 results reported that revenues of $38.5m were down 15.2% compared to Q117 as the company transitioned away from royalties related to the Queen et al. patents to product revenue related to its Noden and LENSAR subsidiaries as well as royalties from the Depomed assets. Excluding Queen et al. royalties, revenues were up 14.2%. Also, while the revenues associated with the Tekturna assets sold by Noden continue to be weak, LENSAR is now EBITDA positive. PDL has also repurchased approximately $12.6m of stock since March 2018 and has $12.4m available under its current repurchase program.