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▲ 20.00 (1.03%)
Market capitalisation
GBP239m
Research: Financials
S&U’s year-end update confirms strong growth has continued at the main motor finance business with customer numbers up 26%, while credit criteria have been tightened to underpin the quality of receivables prospectively. Confidence in the property bridging business is growing, although it remains at a trial stage. Overall trading is in line with management expectations and our estimates are unchanged.
Written by
S&U |
Good loan growth and credit experience on track |
FY18 trading update |
Financial services |
12 February 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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S&U’s year-end update confirms strong growth has continued at the main motor finance business with customer numbers up 26%, while credit criteria have been tightened to underpin the quality of receivables prospectively. Confidence in the property bridging business is growing, although it remains at a trial stage. Overall trading is in line with management expectations and our estimates are unchanged.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
01/16 |
45.2 |
19.5 |
132.4 |
76.0 |
16.7 |
3.4 |
01/17 |
60.5 |
25.2 |
169.1 |
91.0 |
13.0 |
4.1 |
01/18e |
80.0 |
30.3 |
201.9 |
105.0 |
10.9 |
4.8 |
01/19e |
95.6 |
35.5 |
235.8 |
117.4 |
9.4 |
5.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are reported from continuing operations. FY16 DPS excludes exceptional payment of 125p.
Motor finance customer growth with tighter criteria
Advantage motor finance customer numbers stand at c 54,000, up 26% compared with end-FY17, while the 24,500 new transactions completed during FY18 represented an increase of 22% on the prior year. Advantage has continued to implement tighter criteria, which has resulted in an increase in the credit scores of new customers. This will take time to be fully reflected in the overall impairment rate but should more evident in FY19 and beyond. Helping to bolster customer numbers is Dealflo, an e-signature system that guides customers through terms and conditions and verifies their digital sign-off. This is contributing to a higher rate of conversion from approvals to transactions (c 10% in recent years). While new car registrations in the UK have shown distinct weakness (down 14% in 2017), used car sales have been much more resilient (see overleaf) and S&U suggests lower new car sales could support used car values as more people opt for used versus new.
Aspen, introduction of IFRS 9
The Aspen property bridging business has continued to build its loan book, with over £10m of loans issued. The business remains a pilot but confidence in the viability of the operation is increasing. FY19 sees the introduction of IFRS 9 and S&U has given an initial indication of potential impact of the accounting change on group numbers. IFRS 9 is designed to bring forward provisioning for bad loans where appropriate through the application of an expected loss model for certain loans. The net effect (allowing for deferred tax) could be a c £3m reduction in the level of opening receivables (and shareholders’ equity), taking the centre of the range indicated (0.5%-2.5% of receivables). There will be no change in cash flows and the impact is modest relative to overall equity (£143m at end-H118).
Valuation
Our unchanged valuation of 2,700p is based on consideration of an ROE/COE model and peer group valuations. This suggests upside of over 20% from the current share price. On our estimates, the yield for FY18 is 4.8%.
Indicators for the UK used car market
For reference, we include three charts tracking activity and pricing in the UK used car market. The first shows the volume of transactions in the market up to the third quarter of 2017. While there was a small percentage reduction in Q317, the overall picture has been relatively stable. The next chart shows the level of car finance provided through dealerships, including that used for both new and used to show the divergence of trend with used finance remaining buoyant recently.
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Exhibit 1: UK used car market volume |
Exhibit 2: Car finance through dealerships |
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Source: SMMT |
Source: Finance and Leasing Association |
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Exhibit 1: UK used car market volume |
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Source: SMMT |
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Exhibit 2: Car finance through dealerships |
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Source: Finance and Leasing Association |
Exhibit 3 collates BCA data for auction prices. We have included prices for fleet and lease sales and dealer part exchange, but excluded nearly new cars as they are relatively low in volume and at a much higher price level. A typical price level for an Advantage customer is around £7,000, so between the categories shown on the chart. While the BCA data is contingent on the company’s mix of business, which may not reflect overall market trends, it does tend to indicate stability in prices, particularly towards the lower end of the pricing range.
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Exhibit 3: BCA auction prices (£) |
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Source: BCA |
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
£000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
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Year end 31 January |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
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PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
36,102 |
45,182 |
60,521 |
80,014 |
95,623 |
Impairments |
(5,863) |
(7,611) |
(12,194) |
(18,252) |
(21,366) |
||
Other cost of sales |
(6,674) |
(8,980) |
(12,871) |
(17,763) |
(20,559) |
||
Administration expenses |
(6,957) |
(7,131) |
(8,332) |
(10,162) |
(12,144) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
16,608 |
21,460 |
27,124 |
33,836 |
41,554 |
Depreciation |
|
|
(163) |
(209) |
(253) |
(348) |
(626) |
Op. profit (incl. share-based payouts pre-except.) |
|
|
16,445 |
21,251 |
26,871 |
33,489 |
40,928 |
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Non-recurring items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Investment revenues / finance expense |
(1,680) |
(1,782) |
(1,668) |
(3,146) |
(5,384) |
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Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
14,765 |
19,469 |
25,203 |
30,343 |
35,544 |
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
14,765 |
19,469 |
25,203 |
30,343 |
35,544 |
Tax |
(2,920) |
(3,583) |
(4,861) |
(5,997) |
(7,109) |
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Discontinued business after tax |
6,615 |
53,299 |
|||||
Profit after tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
18,460 |
69,185 |
20,342 |
24,346 |
28,435 |
Profit after tax (norm) |
|
|
11,845 |
15,886 |
20,342 |
24,346 |
28,435 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
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Diluted EPS (p) |
|
|
154.3 |
576.5 |
169.1 |
201.9 |
235.8 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
99.0 |
132.4 |
169.1 |
201.9 |
235.8 |
Dividend per share (p) |
66.0 |
201.0 |
91.0 |
105.0 |
117.4 |
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EBITDA margin (%) |
46.0% |
47.5% |
44.8% |
42.3% |
43.5% |
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Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
45.6% |
47.0% |
44.4% |
41.9% |
42.8% |
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Return on equity |
15.7% |
15.2% |
15.2% |
16.7% |
17.7% |
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BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Non-current assets |
|
|
76,781 |
103,653 |
138,004 |
182,253 |
219,322 |
Current assets |
|
|
68,578 |
61,903 |
57,763 |
79,351 |
97,837 |
Total assets |
|
|
145,359 |
165,556 |
195,767 |
261,604 |
317,159 |
Current liabilities |
|
|
(8,945) |
(6,850) |
(17,850) |
(8,401) |
(23,180) |
Non-current liabilities inc pref |
(54,950) |
(30,450) |
(38,450) |
(100,450) |
(125,450) |
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Net assets |
|
|
81,464 |
128,256 |
139,467 |
152,753 |
168,529 |
NAV per share (p) |
689 |
1,084 |
1,177 |
1,275 |
1,407 |
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CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
(13,404) |
(16,017) |
(27,431) |
(34,873) |
(21,543) |
Net cash from investing activities |
(1,096) |
80,716 |
(308) |
(1,618) |
(1,618) |
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Dividends paid |
(6,734) |
(23,090) |
(9,548) |
(11,380) |
(12,977) |
||
Other financing (excluding change in borrowing) |
8 |
55 |
21 |
2 |
0 |
||
Net cash flow |
|
|
(21,226) |
41,664 |
(37,266) |
(47,869) |
(36,138) |
Opening net (debt)/cash |
|
|
(32,339) |
(53,565) |
(11,901) |
(49,167) |
(97,036) |
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
(53,565) |
(11,901) |
(49,167) |
(97,036) |
(133,174) |
Source: S&U accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: FY16 DPS includes an exceptional payment of 125p.
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Research: TMT
Edel’s results to September 2017 were comfortably ahead of earlier guidance, revised post year-end. Revenues were boosted by good demand at Optimal Media, particularly for vinyl records, increased music streaming and by a good performance in cookery and health-related books. The capital investment programme is boosting market positioning while the earlier refinancing has reduced the interest burden. The group is majority family-owned with limited market liquidity, which partly explains the modest rating. The shares trade at a discount to global entertainment content and publishing companies, and carry an attractive yield.