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Research: Industrials
Severfield’s (SFR’s) AGM statement retained management’s existing guidance for FY19. The year has started well in the UK – a more even profit profile is anticipated overall – and confidence in the Indian JV’s outlook is supporting plans for further investment. Overall, it is a very solid update with a consistent message to investors. The recent ex-dividend share price move has increased the attraction of earnings-based valuation multiples.
Written by
Severfield |
Good, balanced UK trading, India orders growing |
AGM update |
Construction & materials |
5 September 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Severfield is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Severfield’s (SFR’s) AGM statement retained management’s existing guidance for FY19. The year has started well in the UK – a more even profit profile is anticipated overall – and confidence in the Indian JV’s outlook is supporting plans for further investment. Overall, it is a very solid update with a consistent message to investors. The recent ex-dividend share price move has increased the attraction of earnings-based valuation multiples.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield** |
03/17 |
262.2 |
20.3 |
5.7 |
2.3 |
13.3 |
3.0 |
03/18** |
274.2 |
24.0 |
6.5 |
4.3 |
11.7 |
5.7 |
03/19e |
279.2 |
25.0 |
6.8 |
2.8 |
11.1 |
3.7 |
03/20e |
285.9 |
27.3 |
7.4 |
3.0 |
10.3 |
4.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding pension net finance costs, intangible amortisation and exceptional items. **FY18 DPS includes a 1.7p special dividend.
Balanced UK performance
Favourable project completion timings resulted in a first half profit weighting last year. In FY19, management expects a more even H1/H2 operating profit split and, based on our existing estimates, this suggests a broadly similar profit outturn in H119. While the UK order book has reduced (to £210m) this largely appears to be a mix effect. Some larger contracts have substantially worked through, resulting in a rebalancing towards smaller project works that cycle through the order book more quickly and, hence, shorten the orders-on-hand position. Taking a wider view, pipeline stability and strength is again referenced, suggesting there have been no material outlook changes in individual sectors addressed since the FY18 results.
India investment approved
The Indian JV order book reached a record level at the end of FY18 and the latest reading of £128m represents a further £22m uplift. This reflects a cycling through of existing work on hand and a contract award on one of the significant commercial projects flagged in the year-end pipeline, improving the overall mix. In the light of this and other commercial prospects, the JV partners are to increase fabrication capacity at Bellary. This c £16m expansion (a 50% increase to c 90,000 tonnes) will be funded 50:50 debt:equity, requiring SFR to inject £4m cash, in line with previous illustrations that also suggested a 12-month project phase. Associated timings are to be firmed up and we will update our model when H119 results are announced in November; we anticipate some cash outflow this year and a P&L impact in FY21.
Valuation: Confident trading messaging
The favourable reaction to FY18 results in June was largely sustained in share price terms before SFR went ex-dividend (1.7p FY18 final plus a 1.7p special) in mid-August. At current levels, an 11.1x FY19 P/E and EV/EBITDA of 6.3x suggest a neutral market stance on prospects with evidence of trading confidence balancing out more bearish UK construction sector views. We believe the former should carry more weight; in our view, SFR’s recent record of successfully winning work across a range of subsectors and delivering improving margins looks set to continue.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
||
Year end 31 March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
12m to Dec |
12m to Dec |
15m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
12m to Mar |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
267.8 |
256.6 |
318.3 |
231.3 |
201.5 |
239.4 |
262.2 |
274.2 |
279.2 |
285.9 |
292.5 |
Cost of Sales |
(246.9) |
(268.8) |
(330.9) |
(217.8) |
(186.7) |
(219.6) |
(236.3) |
(244.9) |
(249.0) |
(253.2) |
(258.9) |
||
Gross Profit |
20.9 |
(12.2) |
(12.7) |
13.5 |
14.9 |
19.8 |
25.9 |
29.3 |
30.3 |
32.7 |
33.6 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
19.5 |
(13.6) |
(13.6) |
12.0 |
13.6 |
18.9 |
25.7 |
29.0 |
30.2 |
32.9 |
34.1 |
Operating Profit - Edison |
|
|
15.0 |
(17.7) |
(18.6) |
8.4 |
10.0 |
15.2 |
22.1 |
25.4 |
26.1 |
28.3 |
29.0 |
Net Interest |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
(2.0) |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
||
Associates |
(2.5) |
0.2 |
(0.3) |
(3.0) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
||
SBP |
(0.3) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(2.7) |
(2.7) |
(3.5) |
(2.7) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(1.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Pension Net Finance Costs |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Exceptionals |
(0.6) |
(1.0) |
(3.8) |
(5.3) |
(5.9) |
(0.9) |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) - Edison |
|
10.6 |
(19.1) |
(20.9) |
4.5 |
8.8 |
13.7 |
20.3 |
24.0 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
28.1 |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
10.1 |
(19.6) |
(21.5) |
4.0 |
8.3 |
13.2 |
19.8 |
23.5 |
24.5 |
26.8 |
27.6 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
6.8 |
(23.3) |
(28.9) |
(4.1) |
(0.2) |
9.6 |
18.1 |
22.2 |
24.5 |
26.8 |
27.6 |
Tax |
(0.9) |
3.9 |
5.7 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
(1.0) |
(2.7) |
(4.1) |
(4.4) |
(4.8) |
(5.0) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
7.7 |
(16.2) |
(17.9) |
3.1 |
7.4 |
11.4 |
17.0 |
19.5 |
20.6 |
22.5 |
23.2 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
5.8 |
(19.4) |
(23.1) |
(2.6) |
0.1 |
8.6 |
15.3 |
18.0 |
20.1 |
22.0 |
22.7 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
89.3 |
89.3 |
89.3 |
295.8 |
297.5 |
297.5 |
298.9 |
299.7 |
301.7 |
303.5 |
303.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) - Edison |
|
|
4.51 |
(9.42) |
(10.42) |
1.05 |
2.47 |
3.84 |
5.70 |
6.52 |
6.82 |
7.40 |
7.64 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
4.21 |
(9.72) |
(9.45) |
0.88 |
2.31 |
3.67 |
5.53 |
6.35 |
6.66 |
7.24 |
7.47 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
3.41 |
(11.33) |
(13.49) |
(0.89) |
0.05 |
2.89 |
5.13 |
6.02 |
6.66 |
7.24 |
7.47 |
Dividend per share (p) |
5.0 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
7.8 |
-4.8 |
-4.0 |
5.8 |
7.4 |
8.3 |
9.9 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
7.3 |
-5.3 |
-4.3 |
5.2 |
6.7 |
7.9 |
9.8 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
11.5 |
11.7 |
||
Operating Margin - Edison (%) |
5.6 |
-6.9 |
-5.8 |
3.6 |
4.9 |
6.4 |
8.4 |
9.2 |
9.3 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
156.9 |
155.6 |
154.9 |
147.7 |
145.1 |
149.3 |
148.3 |
154.5 |
159.0 |
163.0 |
166.6 |
Intangible Assets |
72.9 |
70.4 |
69.8 |
64.6 |
61.8 |
59.2 |
56.3 |
54.8 |
54.8 |
54.8 |
54.8 |
||
Tangible Assets |
79.6 |
76.2 |
76.1 |
74.1 |
76.6 |
77.4 |
78.9 |
81.2 |
84.1 |
86.4 |
88.3 |
||
Investments |
4.4 |
8.9 |
8.9 |
9.0 |
6.7 |
12.7 |
13.1 |
18.5 |
20.1 |
21.7 |
23.5 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
100.5 |
69.8 |
80.5 |
72.2 |
76.3 |
75.1 |
107.1 |
99.2 |
104.2 |
116.6 |
129.4 |
Stocks |
9.1 |
7.1 |
8.2 |
5.8 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
7.8 |
9.6 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
||
Debtors |
89.2 |
61.2 |
71.6 |
60.8 |
64.6 |
50.7 |
66.5 |
56.4 |
58.1 |
60.0 |
62.0 |
||
Cash |
2.3 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
5.5 |
6.9 |
19.0 |
32.8 |
33.1 |
35.3 |
45.6 |
56.2 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(103.6) |
(97.0) |
(112.5) |
(57.9) |
(59.7) |
(58.2) |
(78.7) |
(66.1) |
(66.7) |
(67.9) |
(69.1) |
Creditors |
(70.3) |
(66.1) |
(70.9) |
(52.7) |
(59.5) |
(58.1) |
(78.5) |
(65.9) |
(66.5) |
(67.7) |
(68.9) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(33.3) |
(30.9) |
(41.7) |
(5.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(21.6) |
(21.7) |
(20.4) |
(18.5) |
(21.1) |
(17.9) |
(22.5) |
(18.7) |
(18.7) |
(18.7) |
(18.7) |
Long term borrowings |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.2) |
(0.0) |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(0.2) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(21.3) |
(21.4) |
(20.2) |
(18.5) |
(20.5) |
(17.5) |
(22.3) |
(18.6) |
(18.6) |
(18.6) |
(18.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
132.3 |
106.6 |
102.4 |
143.4 |
140.6 |
148.2 |
154.2 |
169.0 |
177.8 |
193.0 |
208.3 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(5.4) |
12.9 |
3.1 |
2.1 |
11.4 |
24.8 |
27.4 |
22.9 |
27.7 |
31.1 |
32.4 |
Net Interest |
(2.0) |
(1.3) |
(1.7) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Tax |
(3.7) |
(2.7) |
(2.3) |
0.4 |
(1.0) |
(0.9) |
(2.4) |
(3.9) |
(4.6) |
(4.4) |
(4.8) |
||
Capex |
(1.5) |
(0.2) |
(1.4) |
(1.5) |
(1.3) |
(4.3) |
(5.3) |
(5.4) |
(7.0) |
(7.0) |
(7.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(0) |
(2) |
(3.0) |
(3.5) |
(1.7) |
(4.1) |
(0.4) |
(5.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
44.8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(3.6) |
(4.5) |
(4.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(3.0) |
(5.1) |
(7.5) |
(13.3) |
(8.7) |
(9.4) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(16.3) |
1.7 |
(9.7) |
41.5 |
6.7 |
12.4 |
14.0 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
10.3 |
10.6 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
15.0 |
31.3 |
31.3 |
41.2 |
(0.3) |
(6.1) |
(18.4) |
(32.4) |
(32.9) |
(35.0) |
(45.4) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
0.2 |
(0.6) |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
31.3 |
29.7 |
41.2 |
(0.3) |
(6.1) |
(18.4) |
(32.4) |
(32.9) |
(35.0) |
(45.4) |
(56.0) |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
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Research: Investment Companies
Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (AJG) is advised by Atlantis Investment Research Corporation (AIRC). Lead portfolio adviser Taeko Setaishi aims to generate long-term capital growth from a portfolio of primarily smaller-capitalisation Japanese equities. AIRC’s philosophy is that over the long term, a company’s share price performance is driven by its earnings growth, especially for smaller companies. Setaishi notes that Japanese equities have experienced negative investor fund flows in 2018, which has had a large impact on the Japanese stock market. However, while overall economic growth in the country remains modest, the adviser is continuing to find companies with attractive fundamentals that are trading on reasonable valuations, particularly in small and mid-caps. While recent performance has been more challenging, AJG has outperformed its benchmark TOPIX index over the last one, three, five and 10 years.