GB Group — Update 30 November 2015

GB Group (AIM: GBG)

Last close As at 29/04/2024

324.60

9.80 (3.11%)

Market capitalisation

GBP813m

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Research: TMT

GB Group — Update 30 November 2015

GB Group

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TMT

GB Group

Solid growth continues; outlook positive

Interim results

Software & comp services

1 December 2015

Price

276.75p

Market cap

£341m

Net cash (£m) at 30 Sept 2015

1.2

Shares in issue

123.3m

Free float

95%

Code

GBG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.6

24.5

88.9

Rel (local)

2.4

22.5

94.4

52-week high/low

283.75p

146.5p

Business description

GB Group has complimentary identity (ID) intelligence offerings of verification, capture, maintenance and analysis, enabling companies to identify and understand their customers.

Next events

Preliminary results

June 2016

AGM

August 2016

Analysts

Martin Lister

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

GB Group’s (GBG) H116 results show strong performance in line with the October trading update. Group revenue rose 39%, aided by organic growth of 18%, with contributions from both of the group’s business segments. Normalised operating profit was up 21% after investing c £1.3m in product and business development capabilities, and diluted EPS after our notional 21% tax charge increased 19%. Revenue from international clients continues to rise strongly, now accounting for 26% of the group’s business up from 21% in H115. The balance sheet remains solid with £1.2m net cash.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/14

41.8

7.1

4.8

1.65

57.7

0.6

03/15

57.3

10.5

6.7

1.85

41.3

0.7

03/16e

76.0

11.8

7.3

2.00

37.9

0.7

03/17e

89.0

14.7

9.1

2.20

30.4

0.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding acquired intangible amortisation, associate, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS are diluted on a notional 21% tax rate.

Strong growth in H116; FY16e and FY17e maintained

During H116, ID Solutions revenue rose 42.5% to £16.9m, including contributions from the October 2014 Transactis and April 2015 Loqate acquisitions, and ID Proofing revenue rose 35.9% to £15.4m. Normalised segmental operating profit before central costs increased 22.4%, while its operating margin declined to 15.5% (H115: 17.7%) reflecting start-up costs for the new GOV.UK Verify product, as well as international investment costs and the expected small loss from Loqate. We maintain our FY16e, which includes an increase in GOV.UK Verify costs in H216 and also maintain FY17e, when we expect EPS growth to strengthen further.

Acquisitions creating an international services group

GBG’s acquisition strategy to create a truly international services proposition to serve its customers globally is an important factor for the group’s future growth. The two most recent overseas purchases have been Australia-based anti-fraud solutions business DecTech (April 2014) and US-based provider of specialist location intelligence solutions Loqate (April 2015). Management says that it remains vigilant to further potential acquisitions that can provide opportunities to develop existing markets and enhance the group’s product portfolio.

Valuation: Growth prospects support premium rating

The increasing awareness of, and demand for, identity intelligence solutions present positive opportunities for GBG’s future growth prospects. Following the strong share price performance over the past year, the current P/E rating is significantly higher than our selected proxy comparators. However, we believe this valuation is supported by GBG being well placed to grow both its operating divisions strongly ahead of the comparator average in FY17 and beyond. This follows our expectation of a temporary profit growth rate slowdown in FY16 due to anticipated GOV.UK Verify start-up costs and international investment, including Loqate, which we anticipate to move into profitability in FY17.

Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2015

H116 results show strong performance with group revenue rising to £32.4m (H115: £23.2m), up 39%, aided by organic growth of 18%, with contributions from both the group’s business segments. Normalised operating profit (after central costs, but before acquired intangibles amortisation), which increased to £4.54m (H115: £3.75m), was up 21% after investing c £1.3m in product and business development capabilities. Our H216 estimates include a further £2.5m investment in these capabilities, thus affecting operating margins for this period.

Segmental revenue and gross margin analysis

During H116, IDS revenue rose 42.5% to £16.9m, including contributions from the October 2014 Transactis and April 2015 Loqate acquisitions, and IDP revenue rose 35.9% to £15.4m. Group gross profit margin increased significantly to 75.9% (H115: 70.7%). Our FY16 estimate anticipates an increase to 72.2% (FY15: 71.3%) implying conservatively a lower gross margin in H216.

Exhibit 1: Analysis of revenue and gross profit

£000s

H115

H215

H116

H216e

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16e

FY17e

FY13-17e CAGR

Previously reported revenue

39,424

Revenue*

ID Proofing (IDP)

11,346

13,821

15,423

18,512

12,368

15,118

25,167

33,935

41,500

35.3%

ID Solutions (IDS)

11,886

20,230

16,945

25,120

23,976

26,717

32,116

42,065

47,500

18.6%

Total

23,232

34,051

32,368

43,632

36,344

41,835

57,283

76,000

89,000

25.1%

Gross profit

16,423

24,412

24,555

30,345

22,761

27,362

40,835

54,900

64,600

29.8%

Gross margin %

70.7

71.7

75.9

69.5

62.6

65.4

71.3

72.2

72.6

Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Based on revenue under the restructured BT agreement.

Operating margin analysis

Segmental operating profit margins during FY16 are being affected in a few ways. In addition to planned investment in the group’s product and business development capabilities, the investment in the GOV.UK Verify project (for which GBG has been chosen by Royal Mail to be its ID verification partner) is likely to significantly affect IDP’s operating profit margin, while IDS’s operating profit margin is being dampened by the April 2015 acquisition of Loqate, which contributed losses of £0.17m (on revenue of £1.60m) during H116. Our estimate for H216 assumes that Loqate will approach break even, and that in FY17, it will progress to profitability, though initially at a lower margin than IDS’s historic operating margin. It should be noted that IDS’s revenue and operating profit margin have been historically higher in the second half of the group’s fiscal year.

Exhibit 2: Operating margin analysis

£000s

H115

H215

H116

H216e

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16e

FY17e

FY13-17e CAGR

Normalised divisional operating profit *

ID Proofing (IDP)

2,049

2,255

3,219

3,323

1,359

1,594

4,304

6,542

7,200

51.7%

ID Solutions (IDS)

2,058

5,019

1,809

4,409

4,667

6,134

7,077

6,218

8,500

16.2%

Combined

4,107

7,274

5,028

7,732

6,026

7,728

11,381

12,760

15,700

27.0%

Normalised divisional operating margin * %

ID Proofing (IDP)

18.1

16.3

20.9

18.0

11.0

10.5

17.1

19.3

17.3

ID Solutions (IDS)

17.3

24.8

10.7

17.6

19.5

23.0

22.0

14.8

17.9

Combined

17.7

21.4

15.5

17.7

16.6

18.5

19.9

16.8

17.6

Central costs

(357)

(234)

(492)

(188)

(504)

(564)

(591)

(680)

(760)

10.8%

Normalised group operating profit *

3,750

7,040

4,536

7,544

5,522

7,164

10,790

12,080

14,940

28.3%

Normalised group operating margin * %

16.1

20.7

14.0

17.3

15.2

17.1

18.8

15.9

16.8

Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Before acquired intangibles amortisation and based on revenue under the restructured BT agreement.

Valuation: Growth prospects support premium rating

The scope and financial impact of global fraud and cyber-crime is increasing. The requirement of organisations and governments to invest in technologies and compliance solutions to combat these issues should also increase to outpace this threat. The group has market-leading products and services that address these global issues relating to identity and fraud. Management believes that the increasing awareness of, and demand for, identity intelligence solutions present positive opportunities for the group’s growth future prospects.

There are no quoted companies that are directly comparable competitors to GBG’s businesses. Identified competitors include Acxiom (a US-quoted direct mail and marketing group); Equifax (a US-quoted global leader in information solutions for business and consumers; Callcredit Marketing Solutions (the marketing division of Callcredit Information Group, owned by GTCR, a Chicago-based private equity firm); Experian Integrated Marketing (part of the UK-quoted Experian Group, which owns 192.com, a provider of online ID verification services); Occam (unquoted database services); RAPP (an unquoted global data-driven solutions provider);and Tracesmart (acquired in April 2014 by LexisNexis Risk Solutions, a subsidiary of UK/Dutch-quoted RELX).

For our proxy comparison table we have identified a selection of companies, including the quoted holding companies listed above, that have interests in businesses with similar disciplines. While most of these companies are significantly larger, Exhibit 3 provides some benchmarks for a realistic rating that investors could attribute to GBG.

GBG has a scalable and flexible business platform, with a high proportion of revenue coming from online services. Employing a software-as-a-service and annual renewal licence model, the group has a high (c 75%) recurring and repeat revenue base. Historically, growth has been achieved organically. However, since 2009, management has completed eight acquisitions that have strengthened the group’s product offering and added increased geographic reach.

The group takes advantage of significant trading tax losses (£18.4m carried forward at 31 March 2015) that are being recognised against current profits. As shown in Exhibit 3, for comparison purposes, we continue to calculate GBG’s normalised diluted EPS on a notional 21% tax rate, despite the UK corporation tax rate reducing to 20% in FY16, as the group now has increased overseas profits taxed at a higher rate. While the current P/E rating using this measure is significantly higher than our selected proxy comparators, we believe this valuation is supported by GBG being well placed to grow both its operating divisions strongly ahead of the comparator average in FY17 and beyond. This follows our expectation of a temporary profit growth slowdown in FY16 due to anticipated GOV.UK Verify start-up costs and international investment, including Loqate, which we anticipate to move into profitability in FY17.

Exhibit 3: Proxy comparison table

Ticker

Price p/$

Mkt Cap £m/$m

YE Hist

EV/Rev Yr 2

EV/EBITDA Yr 2

P/E** Dec16

P/E Yr 2

Yield Yr 2

Yr2/Hist EPS CAGR %

Accenture

Consultancy

ACN*

107.6

67,228

Aug-15

1.8

10.3

20.1

18.9

2.2

9.4

Acxiom

Data management

ACXM*

22.7

1,768

Mar-15

2.2

11.7

39.3

36.6

0.0

18.7

Equifax

Credit/risk analytics

EFX*

111.8

13,246

Dec-14

5.1

13.8

22.6

22.6

1.2

29.0

Experian

Information services

EXPN

1222.0

11,691

Mar-15

4.9

13.0

19.7

19.3

2.2

11.6

Fair Isaac

Credit/risk analytics

FICO*

95.2

2,959

Sep-15

3.4

12.0

29.6

23.3

0.1

24.1

RELX

Information solutions

RELX

1197.0

13,314

Dec-14

2.5

7.0

17.9

17.9

2.5

8.9

Vasco

Internet security

VDSI*

18.7

740

Dec-14

2.8

12.8

19.1

19.1

0.0

7.4

Average

3.2

11.5

24.0

22.5

1.2

15.6

GB Group

Applied 21% tax rate

GBG

278.0

336

Mar-15

3.6

19.8

32.4

30.5

0.8

16.5

Actual/nil tax

32.1

30.2

Source: Thomson Reuters, Edison Investment Research. Note: *US listed; **straight-line adjustment to December 2016 year end. Prices are at UK close on 27 November 2015.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 March

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

39,424

41,835

57,283

76,000

89,000

Cost of Sales

(16,663)

(14,473)

(16,448)

(21,100)

(24,400)

Gross Profit

22,761

27,362

40,835

54,900

64,600

EBITDA

 

 

6,125

7,848

11,844

13,400

16,340

Operating Profit (before *)

 

 

5,522

7,164

10,790

12,080

14,940

Acquired intangible amortisation *

(981)

(1,110)

(1,986)

(2,340)

(2,540)

Exceptionals *

(409)

(1,080)

(1,629)

(21)

0

Share of Associate *

(146)

(159)

(10)

0

0

Share Based Payments *

(488)

(747)

(971)

(1,500)

(1,600)

Operating Profit

3,498

4,068

6,194

8,219

10,800

Net Interest

(84)

(79)

(266)

(300)

(280)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

5,438

7,085

10,524

11,780

14,660

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

3,414

3,989

5,928

7,919

10,520

Tax

831

(474)

(1,127)

(2,400)

(2,900)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

4,296

5,597

8,314

9,306

11,581

Profit After Tax (FRS3)

 

 

4,245

3,515

4,801

5,519

7,620

Dividend per share (p)

1.50

1.65

1.85

2.00

2.20

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

108.3

109.6

119.1

122.6

123.3

EPS - normalised (p) on notional 21% tax

4.0

5.1

7.0

7.6

9.4

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) on notional 21% tax

3.8

4.8

6.7

7.3

9.1

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

3.9

3.2

4.0

4.5

6.2

Gross Margin (%)

57.7%

65.4%

71.3%

72.2%

72.6%

EBITDA Margin (%)

15.5%

18.8%

20.7%

17.6%

18.4%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

14.0%

17.1%

18.8%

15.9%

16.8%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

26,851

26,985

51,238

62,454

60,614

Intangible assets

22,706

23,329

45,296

55,482

52,792

Tangible assets

1,188

1,519

2,829

2,859

3,709

Other fixed assets

2,957

2,137

3,113

4,113

4,113

Current Assets

 

 

17,139

23,775

33,186

27,720

36,655

Other current assets

82

0

0

0

0

Debtors

10,749

11,929

17,408

20,500

22,000

Cash

6,308

11,846

15,778

7,220

14,655

Current Liabilities

 

 

(13,575)

(17,861)

(30,784)

(31,280)

(33,475)

Creditors

(13,575)

(17,861)

(24,305)

(28,250)

(30,550)

Contingent consideration

0

0

(5,733)

(2,284)

(2,179)

Short term borrowings

0

0

(746)

(746)

(746)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2,798)

(2,066)

(7,506)

(6,711)

(5,811)

Long term borrowings

0

0

(3,643)

(2,743)

(1,843)

Contingent consideration

0

0

(895)

(895)

0

Other long term liabilities

(2,798)

(2,066)

(2,968)

(3,968)

(3,968)

Net Assets

 

 

27,617

30,833

46,134

52,183

57,983

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6,020

9,355

11,684

14,232

17,140

Net Interest

(84)

(79)

(266)

(300)

(280)

Tax

(101)

65

(337)

(2,400)

(2,900)

Capex

(903)

(1,144)

(2,011)

(2,050)

(2,100)

Acquisitions/disposals

(2,097)

(1,443)

(18,672)

(15,275)

(1,000)

Equity financing

203

416

10,954

412

0

Dividends

(1,487)

(1,632)

(1,955)

(2,277)

(2,525)

Net Cash Flow

1,551

5,538

(603)

(7,658)

8,335

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(4,757)

(6,308)

(11,846)

(11,389)

(3,731)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

146

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(6,308)

(11,846)

(11,389)

(3,731)

(12,066)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research.

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