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GBP508m
Research: TMT
GB Group
Written by
GB Group |
Solid growth continues; outlook positive |
Interim results |
Software & comp services |
1 December 2015 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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GB Group’s (GBG) H116 results show strong performance in line with the October trading update. Group revenue rose 39%, aided by organic growth of 18%, with contributions from both of the group’s business segments. Normalised operating profit was up 21% after investing c £1.3m in product and business development capabilities, and diluted EPS after our notional 21% tax charge increased 19%. Revenue from international clients continues to rise strongly, now accounting for 26% of the group’s business up from 21% in H115. The balance sheet remains solid with £1.2m net cash.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/14 |
41.8 |
7.1 |
4.8 |
1.65 |
57.7 |
0.6 |
03/15 |
57.3 |
10.5 |
6.7 |
1.85 |
41.3 |
0.7 |
03/16e |
76.0 |
11.8 |
7.3 |
2.00 |
37.9 |
0.7 |
03/17e |
89.0 |
14.7 |
9.1 |
2.20 |
30.4 |
0.8 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding acquired intangible amortisation, associate, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS are diluted on a notional 21% tax rate.
Strong growth in H116; FY16e and FY17e maintained
During H116, ID Solutions revenue rose 42.5% to £16.9m, including contributions from the October 2014 Transactis and April 2015 Loqate acquisitions, and ID Proofing revenue rose 35.9% to £15.4m. Normalised segmental operating profit before central costs increased 22.4%, while its operating margin declined to 15.5% (H115: 17.7%) reflecting start-up costs for the new GOV.UK Verify product, as well as international investment costs and the expected small loss from Loqate. We maintain our FY16e, which includes an increase in GOV.UK Verify costs in H216 and also maintain FY17e, when we expect EPS growth to strengthen further.
Acquisitions creating an international services group
GBG’s acquisition strategy to create a truly international services proposition to serve its customers globally is an important factor for the group’s future growth. The two most recent overseas purchases have been Australia-based anti-fraud solutions business DecTech (April 2014) and US-based provider of specialist location intelligence solutions Loqate (April 2015). Management says that it remains vigilant to further potential acquisitions that can provide opportunities to develop existing markets and enhance the group’s product portfolio.
Valuation: Growth prospects support premium rating
The increasing awareness of, and demand for, identity intelligence solutions present positive opportunities for GBG’s future growth prospects. Following the strong share price performance over the past year, the current P/E rating is significantly higher than our selected proxy comparators. However, we believe this valuation is supported by GBG being well placed to grow both its operating divisions strongly ahead of the comparator average in FY17 and beyond. This follows our expectation of a temporary profit growth rate slowdown in FY16 due to anticipated GOV.UK Verify start-up costs and international investment, including Loqate, which we anticipate to move into profitability in FY17.
Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2015
H116 results show strong performance with group revenue rising to £32.4m (H115: £23.2m), up 39%, aided by organic growth of 18%, with contributions from both the group’s business segments. Normalised operating profit (after central costs, but before acquired intangibles amortisation), which increased to £4.54m (H115: £3.75m), was up 21% after investing c £1.3m in product and business development capabilities. Our H216 estimates include a further £2.5m investment in these capabilities, thus affecting operating margins for this period.
Segmental revenue and gross margin analysis
During H116, IDS revenue rose 42.5% to £16.9m, including contributions from the October 2014 Transactis and April 2015 Loqate acquisitions, and IDP revenue rose 35.9% to £15.4m. Group gross profit margin increased significantly to 75.9% (H115: 70.7%). Our FY16 estimate anticipates an increase to 72.2% (FY15: 71.3%) implying conservatively a lower gross margin in H216.
Exhibit 1: Analysis of revenue and gross profit
£000s |
H115 |
H215 |
H116 |
H216e |
FY13 |
FY14 |
FY15 |
FY16e |
FY17e |
FY13-17e CAGR |
Previously reported revenue |
39,424 |
|||||||||
Revenue* |
||||||||||
ID Proofing (IDP) |
11,346 |
13,821 |
15,423 |
18,512 |
12,368 |
15,118 |
25,167 |
33,935 |
41,500 |
35.3% |
ID Solutions (IDS) |
11,886 |
20,230 |
16,945 |
25,120 |
23,976 |
26,717 |
32,116 |
42,065 |
47,500 |
18.6% |
Total |
23,232 |
34,051 |
32,368 |
43,632 |
36,344 |
41,835 |
57,283 |
76,000 |
89,000 |
25.1% |
Gross profit |
16,423 |
24,412 |
24,555 |
30,345 |
22,761 |
27,362 |
40,835 |
54,900 |
64,600 |
29.8% |
Gross margin % |
70.7 |
71.7 |
75.9 |
69.5 |
62.6 |
65.4 |
71.3 |
72.2 |
72.6 |
Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Based on revenue under the restructured BT agreement.
Operating margin analysis
Segmental operating profit margins during FY16 are being affected in a few ways. In addition to planned investment in the group’s product and business development capabilities, the investment in the GOV.UK Verify project (for which GBG has been chosen by Royal Mail to be its ID verification partner) is likely to significantly affect IDP’s operating profit margin, while IDS’s operating profit margin is being dampened by the April 2015 acquisition of Loqate, which contributed losses of £0.17m (on revenue of £1.60m) during H116. Our estimate for H216 assumes that Loqate will approach break even, and that in FY17, it will progress to profitability, though initially at a lower margin than IDS’s historic operating margin. It should be noted that IDS’s revenue and operating profit margin have been historically higher in the second half of the group’s fiscal year.
Exhibit 2: Operating margin analysis
£000s |
H115 |
H215 |
H116 |
H216e |
FY13 |
FY14 |
FY15 |
FY16e |
FY17e |
FY13-17e CAGR |
|
Normalised divisional operating profit * |
|||||||||||
ID Proofing (IDP) |
2,049 |
2,255 |
3,219 |
3,323 |
1,359 |
1,594 |
4,304 |
6,542 |
7,200 |
51.7% |
|
ID Solutions (IDS) |
2,058 |
5,019 |
1,809 |
4,409 |
4,667 |
6,134 |
7,077 |
6,218 |
8,500 |
16.2% |
|
Combined |
4,107 |
7,274 |
5,028 |
7,732 |
6,026 |
7,728 |
11,381 |
12,760 |
15,700 |
27.0% |
|
Normalised divisional operating margin * % |
|||||||||||
ID Proofing (IDP) |
18.1 |
16.3 |
20.9 |
18.0 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
17.1 |
19.3 |
17.3 |
||
ID Solutions (IDS) |
17.3 |
24.8 |
10.7 |
17.6 |
19.5 |
23.0 |
22.0 |
14.8 |
17.9 |
||
Combined |
17.7 |
21.4 |
15.5 |
17.7 |
16.6 |
18.5 |
19.9 |
16.8 |
17.6 |
||
Central costs |
(357) |
(234) |
(492) |
(188) |
(504) |
(564) |
(591) |
(680) |
(760) |
10.8% |
|
Normalised group operating profit * |
3,750 |
7,040 |
4,536 |
7,544 |
5,522 |
7,164 |
10,790 |
12,080 |
14,940 |
28.3% |
|
Normalised group operating margin * % |
16.1 |
20.7 |
14.0 |
17.3 |
15.2 |
17.1 |
18.8 |
15.9 |
16.8 |
Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Before acquired intangibles amortisation and based on revenue under the restructured BT agreement.