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Gaming Realms — Update 14 September 2016

Gaming Realms — Update 14 September 2016

Gaming Realms

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Gaming Realms

Brand building starts to pay off

Interim results

Travel & leisure

14 September 2016

Price

19.0p

Market cap

£52m

$1.3/€1.18/£

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2016

2.6

Shares in issue

274.1m

Free float

71%

Code

GMR

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.7

(7.7)

(20.1)

Rel (local)

3.9

(15.8)

(26.0)

52-week high/low

27.0p

18.2p

Business description

Gaming Realms creates and publishes innovative real money and social games for mobile, with operations in the UK and US. Its real money operations are fully regulated and licensed in the UK and Alderney. Gaming Realms listed on AIM in August 2013.

Next events

Trading update

January 2017

Analysts

Jane Anscombe

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Gaming Realms is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

We take three key messages from Gaming Realms’ interims: strong growth in real money gaming, significant progress with major blue-chip licensing partners and management’s belief that the group will be EBITDA positive for 2016. The latter implies maiden EBITDA profits of over £3m in H216 underpinning our unchanged EBITDA forecast of £6.9m for 2017. More importantly, this suggests that the group has passed a tipping point in its development, which is not yet reflected in the 2017 EV/EVITDA of only 7.2x.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA*
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

12/14**

11.2

(7.8)

(8.4)

(5.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/15

21.2

(4.1)

(5.0)

(2.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/16e

37.1

0.3

(1.7)

(0.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17e

54.3

6.9

4.9

1.7

0.0

11.2

7.2

Note: *Normalised (and diluted EPS), excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **15-month period.

Building real traction in RMG and social gaming

With its proprietary Grizzly platform scaling nicely, Gaming Realms has been able to focus on marketing its real money gaming (RMG) brands, with over 143k new depositing players in H116 (H115: 39k), revenue growing to £10.2m (H115: £4.2m) and 84% of depositing players using mobile. It is also ready to begin licensing its games to selected partners on a B2B basis. The Slingo social gaming brand (acquired in August 2015) has successfully crossed over into RMG but, more importantly, is attracting blue-chip licensing partners. Gaming Realms has already launched Britain’s Got Talent, X Factor and Deal or No Deal Slingo-based games sites and we expect more to come, including product launches from its US licensing partners Zynga (Slingo-branded social casino slot game), Scientific Games (Slingo-branded land-based slot machines) and Pala Interactive (New Jersey online bingo).

Investment in marketing weighted to H116

H116 revenues more than doubled to £16.6m (H115: 8.0m), partly on the back of a high level of marketing spend (£9.5m, up from £5.1m in H115), which left the H116 EBITDA loss at £3.0m (H115: £2.4m), slightly more than we expected. However, the marketing investment was front-end loaded and the momentum in RMG and growth in licensing revenues underpins management’s belief that it can achieve EBITDA profits for the year. We trimmed our forecast from £0.8m to £0.3m, but this would still imply H216 EBITDA of £3.3m. Our 2017e EBITDA of £6.9m is unchanged.

Valuation: Payback in sight

Gaming Realms’ management has invested heavily to create a proprietary platform and innovative games, with the directors supporting equity raises and currently holding 16.7%. Aside from the financial momentum, we believe the blue-chip names being added as licensing partners are a clear sign of confidence and that, as it moves into profit at the EBITDA level, the group has passed a tipping point in its development, which is not yet reflected in the 2017e EV/EVITDA of only 7.2x.

Operational progress

B2C RMG – growing portfolio of branded games

RMG revenues more than doubled in H116 to £10.17m (H115: £4.18m). Gaming Realms is continuing to achieve good growth from its longer established brands Spin Genie and Pocket Fruity, which contributed 61% of H116 RMG revenues (c £6.2m) implying roughly 45% growth over H115. Gaming Realms recently announced a three-year partnership and revenue-share agreement with Bauer Media to promote Spin Genie across media channels including its Heat and Closer magazines and Heat, Kiss, Magic and Absolute radio stations. The other 39% of H116 RMG revenues came from slingo.com (first RMG version launched autumn 2015) and bgtgames.com (Britain’s Got Talent) which is licensed from Freemantle (which receives a royalty income). The Deal or No Deal games site (also licensed from Freemantle) was launched in April, while the X Factor games site (licensed from Endemol) should contribute materially in H216 (the latest TV series began at the end of August). Each site features Slingo games (attractive to partners as they are seen as soft gaming), other Gaming Realms games and a range of third-party slots and games.

Social games and licensing

Social and licensing H116 revenue was £3.77m versus only 53k in H115, RealNetworks having only been acquired in July 2015. The £3.77m was 52% higher than the H215 figure and Gaming Realms reported that it reached a monthly run rate of over $1m in June 2016, implying annualised revenues of over £9m. RealNetworks’ main asset was the Slingo range of social games (monetised via a freemium model) including Slingo Adventure and Slingo Shuffle. It also brought in a Hidden Artifacts game, which has proved popular (in July 2016 Gaming Realms acquired 62.5% of its developer Hullabu for $500k, with the consideration being applied to further develop the game). More importantly, RealNetworks brought in a relationship with US gaming equipment manufacturer Scientific Games, whereby Scientific Games produces Slingo-branded physical scratch card lottery tickets in certain markets. During H116 this relationship was extended with a five-year agreement whereby Scientific Games has exclusive rights to produce and distribute Slingo-branded, land-based slot machines to casinos and gaming venues worldwide, with a minimum guaranteed royalty stream payable to Gaming Realms in the first two years. We do not yet know when machines will be launched, but believe the upside potential is considerable.

During H116 Gaming Realms also entered into US licensing deals with Zynga and Pala Interactive. The deal with Zynga is to bring a new Slingo-branded game to the social casino market and includes a minimum guaranteed royalty stream with recoupable upfront royalty payments (based on net revenue) over a three-year term. In March 2016 Gaming Realms was granted a transactional waiver in New Jersey, US to allow it to supply a new bingo game to PalaBingoUSA.com, and the game has already been soft-launched.

Remote game server – new B2B opportunities

Gaming Realms is looking to leverage its game portfolio (both RMG and social) and proprietary platform with the launch of its remote game server (RGS) post the period end. The RGS allows it to license its games to selected partners, which would generate incremental revenue at almost a 100% margin. Likely partners might be sports betting operators or international casino operators looking to extend their product ranges; we assume that Gaming Realms would be less likely to want to license to UK-facing B2C gaming competitors.

Interim results and full year estimates

Overall revenues for H116 were £16.6m, up from £7.95m in H115. In addition to RMG and social gaming and licensing (discussed above), there were £2.7m of marketing services revenues including revenues from the Dragonfish ‘skins’ and QTM up to their disposals in March and June respectively (QTM was injected into a larger agency, Ayima, in which Gaming Realms has a 10% stake worth c £0.5m). We have left our full year and 2017 revenue estimates unchanged.

Exhibit 1: Half-yearly results and estimates

£m

H115

H215

2015

H116

H216

2016e

2017e

Real money gaming (RMG)

4.18

6.62

10.80

10.17

13.33

23.50

32.70

Social gaming & licensing

0.05

2.49

2.54

3.77

5.23

9.00

20.00

Marketing services

3.72

4.12

7.84

2.69

1.89

4.58

1.60

Revenue

7.95

13.26

21.21

16.63

20.45

37.08

54.30

Marketing expense

(5.05)

(6.46)

(11.51)

(9.52)

(5.48)

(15.00)

(18.10)

Marketing % revenue

63.5%

48.7%

54.3%

57.3%

26.8%

40.4%

33.3%

Operating expense

(2.40)

(3.33)

(5.73)

(4.29)

(5.35)

(9.64)

(14.80)

Operating expense % revenue

30.2%

25.1%

27.0%

25.8%

26.2%

26.0%

27.3%

Admin expense

(2.93)

(5.15)

(8.08)

(5.81)

(6.29)

(12.10)

(14.50)

Admin % revenue

36.9%

38.8%

38.1%

35.0%

30.7%

32.6%

23.0%

Adjusted EBITDA

(2.43)

(1.68)

(4.11)

(3.00)

3.34

0.34

6.90

Adjusted EBITDA margins

-30.6%

-12.6%

-19.4%

-18.0%

16.3%

0.9%

12.7%

Source: Gaming Realms accounts, Edison Investment Research

Gaming Realms is still building its business and brands and marketing is its biggest expense; indeed, we view one of management’s core skills as the ability to flex marketing rapidly to maximise returns. 2016 marketing spend is reported to have been front loaded to the first half, with spend of £9.5m (57% of revenue), including TV advertising as well as online. Operating and admin expense ratios declined slightly as the group scaled up, but the high level of investment resulted in an EBITDA loss of £3.0m. Normalised PBT was a loss of £3.9m (H115: loss of £2.7m).

Management believes that it will be EBITDA positive for the full year, which will be a considerable achievement; we forecast H216 EBITDA of £3.34m to give £0.34m for the year, implying a second-half margin of just over 16%. We have left our 2017 estimates unchanged. We allow for marketing to fall to about 33% of revenue as licensed sites provide increasing brand visibility, and the admin ratio should also decline. However, we allow for a slight increase in the operating expense ratio to accommodate the extension of remote gaming duty (POC) to free bets from August 2017 (its exact method of implementation is currently the subject of an HMRC consultation).

Our normalised PBT estimates are for a loss of £1.7m in 2016 and profit of £4.9m in 2017 (Exhibit 2), slightly below our last published £0.4m loss and £5.8m profit (respectively) as we have adopted a more conservative treatment of amortisation and now charge all amortisation relating to development costs, software and domain names (but exclude that relating to acquired customer databases and intellectual property).

Net cash of £2.6m at 30 June

Cash (net of player balances) increased slightly in the half year to £2.59m (December 2015: £2.34m). Gaming Realms has continued to invest heavily in its games, platform and player acquisition, including £1.9m of capitalised development costs in H116. It raised £1.525m via the issue of 7.6m shares (at 20p) on 2 March and £1.2m from the sale of the Dragonfish ‘skins’ (Blueburra) on 4 March. Since the period end it has raised £2.5m via the issue of 12.5m shares (at 20p) on 27 July, which part-funded the first deferred consideration payment of $4m (£3.1m) to RealNetworks. We expect year-end net cash of around £1.15m and for the group to turn cash positive in 2017, with net cash rising to c £4.3m by end 2017.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'m

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

September/December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

11.23

21.21

37.08

54.30

EBITDA

 

 

(7.82)

(4.11)

0.34

6.90

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

(8.33)

(4.94)

(1.66)

4.90

Amortisation of acquired intangibles*

(0.80)

(1.46)

(1.50)

(1.00)

Exceptional items

(0.23)

(0.32)

0.27

0.00

Share based payments

(0.44)

(1.05)

(1.25)

0.00

Operating Profit

(9.80)

(7.76)

(4.14)

3.90

Net Interest

(0.04)

(0.01)

(0.03)

0.00

Mov't in deferred consideration

0.00

(0.37)

(0.75)

0.00

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(8.38)

(4.95)

(1.69)

4.90

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(9.85)

(7.78)

(4.17)

3.90

Tax

0.09

0.34

0.15

(0.20)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(8.28)

(4.62)

(1.54)

4.71

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(9.75)

(7.44)

(4.02)

3.71

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

165.2

215.7

263.0

272.4

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(5.0)

(2.1)

(0.6)

1.7

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

(5.0)

(2.1)

(0.6)

1.7

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

(5.9)

(3.4)

(1.5)

1.4

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

-69.6

-19.4

0.9

12.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

-74.2

-23.3

-4.5

9.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

17.06

29.27

27.35

27.54

Intangible Assets

16.76

28.93

27.01

27.00

Tangible Assets

0.30

0.34

0.34

0.54

Investments

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Current Assets

 

 

6.24

6.55

6.05

9.80

Stocks

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Debtors

2.22

4.02

4.50

5.00

Cash

3.99

2.20

1.15

4.30

Other including player balances

0.02

0.34

0.40

0.50

Current Liabilities

 

 

(5.26)

(9.32)

(8.10)

(8.50)

Creditors

(5.25)

(9.32)

(8.10)

(8.50)

Short term borrowings

(0.01)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2.43)

(3.71)

0.00

0.00

Long term borrowings

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other long term liabilities

(2.43)

(3.71)

0.00

0.00

Net Assets

 

 

15.61

22.80

25.30

28.84

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(8.02)

(3.83)

(0.66)

5.35

Net Interest

(0.04)

(0.21)

(0.21)

0.00

Tax

0.05

0.34

0.00

0.00

Capex

(0.69)

(1.87)

(2.00)

(2.20)

Acquisitions/disposals

(4.12)

(7.66)

(1.90)

0.00

Financing

11.81

12.00

3.60

0.00

Dividends

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net Cash Flow

(1.01)

(1.23)

(1.17)

3.15

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5.02)

(3.98)

(2.34)

(1.15)

HP finance leases initiated

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other

(0.03)

(0.41)

(0.02)

0.00

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(3.98)

(2.34)

(1.15)

(4.30)

Source: Gaming Realms accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Gaming Realms and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). 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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Gaming Realms and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Abzena — Update 14 September 2016

Abzena

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