QEX’s operations are gaining momentum, as illustrated by the recent upward revision of three out of four key operating milestone (KOM) targets set by the company. Management now expects sales turnover to reach at least NZ$30m, assisted by the strong Chinese New Year season, good performance of both the Australian operations and QEX’s Chinese subsidiary, Shanghai Ditu International Freight Forwarder (Ditu), as well as a solid sales outlook for March. The Australian daigou market looks promising, as exhibited by the significant interest in AuMake’s newly opened daigou hub in Sydney.
QEX Logistics |
FY18 targets increased amid solid demand
General industrials |
NXT Company Spotlight
23 March 2018 |
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QEX Logistics coverage is provided through the NXT Research Scheme |
QEX’s operations are gaining momentum, as illustrated by the recent upward revision of three out of four key operating milestone (KOM) targets set by the company. Management now expects sales turnover to reach at least NZ$30m, assisted by the strong Chinese New Year season, good performance of both the Australian operations and QEX’s Chinese subsidiary, Shanghai Ditu International Freight Forwarder (Ditu), as well as a solid sales outlook for March. The Australian daigou market looks promising, as exhibited by the significant interest in AuMake’s newly opened daigou hub in Sydney.
Upward revision of FY18 KOMs
On 5 March, QEX announced that it expects to exceed three of its KOM targets set in the listing document for FY18 (year ending March 2018) by more than 10%. The company should exceed its sales turnover target of NZ$26m and now expects to reach sales of at least NZ$30m. This will be driven by: 1) record activity levels of New Y Trading during the Chinese New Year season; 2) stronger than expected initial sales from the operations in Australia; 3) Ditu demonstrating performance ahead of expectations; and 4) a solid sales pipeline for March. Furthermore, the earlier expectations for monthly volume of exported dairy products at 155 tonnes per month in FY18 will be exceeded by more than 10%. Similarly, the targeted 66,000 parcels to be cleared on average per month in FY18 will also be surpassed by more than 10%. QEX’s fourth KOM target (gross margin at 14.3%) remained unchanged.
FY19 KOMs review post-March
QEX highlighted that the board will review its FY19 KOM targets after 31 March (as required by the NXT Market Rules) and will subsequently provide an update. According to the listing document, QEX expects a sales turnover of NZ$28m in FY19, monthly volume of exported dairy products at 160 tonnes and the number of parcels cleared monthly at 72,000. Given that the revised FY18 numbers are ahead of the current FY19 targets, it is quite likely that QEX will raise the latter as well.
Valuation: Peer comparison
QEX is still relatively small and has few listed peers. AuMake is an Australia-listed company taking a different approach to the daigou market, which had LTM sales at end-December 2017 of c A$18m and a market cap of c A$70m. QEX is currently priced at 14.8x FY17 (end-March 2017) EV/EBITDA, with logistics companies trading on multiples of c 10.9x EV/EBITDA and 22.7x P/E on a trailing 12-month basis.
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Company financials
Source: QEX (historicals and forecasts). Note: *QEX will review its FY19 target post-March. |
Valuation
QEX remains a small company and has few peers. We note that AuMake (a recently listed Australian company) is approaching the daigou market differently, planning to open at least 20 specialist stores in Australia targeting Chinese consumers. It generated LTM revenues as at end-December 2017 of c A$18m and raised A$14m on 22 January 2018.
There are a number of other logistics companies globally, which average 10.9x next-year EV/EBITDA multiples. As can be seen, analyst coverage of these is poor for any companies with market cap of less than c US$700m.
Exhibit 1: Comparative multiples
Market cap |
EV/EBITDA (x) trailing 12 months |
P/E (x) |
|
Direct |
|
||
AuMake International |
59 |
- |
- |
|
|||
Milk and health supplements |
|||
a2 Milk Co |
7,374 |
25.4 |
69.4 |
Bellamy's Australia |
1,915 |
- |
- |
Blackmores |
1,760 |
28.7 |
35.5 |
Median |
|
27.0 |
52.4 |
Logistics |
|||
United Parcel Service |
93,076 |
12.5 |
17.9 |
FedEx Corp |
67,506 |
10.1 |
18.5 |
Deutsche Post |
54,751 |
9.8 |
17.7 |
Kuehne + Nagel International |
18,215 |
17.3 |
23.3 |
Bollore |
15,911 |
25.6 |
44.9 |
DSV A/S |
15,070 |
18.6 |
26.8 |
JB Hunt Transport Services |
13,255 |
13.6 |
31.6 |
CH Robinson Worldwide |
13,006 |
15.6 |
27.5 |
Expeditors International of Washington |
11,337 |
13.8 |
26.0 |
Yamato Holdings |
10,254 |
16.1 |
- |
Nippon Express |
6,643 |
7.5 |
14.7 |
Hyundai Glovis |
5,648 |
6.1 |
8.9 |
Landstar System |
4,747 |
14.9 |
30.2 |
Sinotrans |
3,477 |
7.2 |
13.3 |
Sankyu |
3,211 |
7.3 |
15.9 |
Panalpina Welttransport Holding |
3,127 |
22.5 |
40.9 |
Hitachi Transport System |
3,024 |
10.2 |
16.7 |
Mainfreight |
1,787 |
14.1 |
24.3 |
Forward Air Corp |
1,629 |
11.5 |
23.1 |
Hub Group |
1,554 |
12.0 |
24.0 |
Kintetsu World Express |
1,354 |
9.9 |
24.2 |
Echo Global Logistics |
775 |
18.3 |
- |
Eddie Stobart Logistics |
661 |
- |
- |
Logwin |
467 |
5.5 |
14.1 |
Wincanton |
380 |
4.9 |
7.3 |
Hanjin Transportation |
264 |
13.2 |
- |
Sebang |
246 |
5.8 |
9.5 |
K&S Corp |
158 |
5.8 |
38.2 |
Marsden Maritime Holdings |
157 |
186.1 |
22.7 |
TIL Logistics Group |
121 |
- |
- |
South Port New Zealand |
118 |
10.2 |
17.8 |
Lindsay Australia |
90 |
6.8 |
20.9 |
CTI Logistics |
65 |
8.1 |
22.8 |
Bremer Lagerhaus-Gesellschaft |
65 |
- |
- |
Hansol Logistics |
39 |
4.5 |
13.4 |
Mercantile Ports and Logistics |
26 |
- |
- |
Median |
|
10.9 |
22.7 |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg (priced on 21 March 2018).
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Blancco’s H118 results reflect the non-recurrence of one-off licence deals signed in H117 as well as a period of restructuring. Despite the weak H1, management has a sufficiently strong sales pipeline that it expects to meet previous guidance for FY18. The company is now in better shape for the soon to be appointed new CEO to drive sustainable, cash-generative revenue growth.