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Research: Financials
Record’s assets under management equivalent (AUME) has continued to grow in Q122 with net inflows including the launch of the new Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund. This is the first of several new product initiatives to be realised and will contribute to diversification of revenues. The group is also continuing to focus on modernisation and succession to support future growth.
Written by
Record |
Further growth in AUME |
Q122 trading update |
Financial services |
29 July 2021 |
Share price performance
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Record is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Record’s assets under management equivalent (AUME) has continued to grow in Q122 with net inflows including the launch of the new Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund. This is the first of several new product initiatives to be realised and will contribute to diversification of revenues. The group is also continuing to focus on modernisation and succession to support future growth.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
03/19 |
25.0 |
8.0 |
3.25 |
2.30 |
26.7 |
2.7 |
03/20 |
25.6 |
7.7 |
3.26 |
2.30 |
26.6 |
2.7 |
03/21 |
25.4 |
6.2 |
2.73 |
2.30 |
31.8 |
2.7 |
03/22e |
33.0 |
12.2 |
5.05 |
2.30 |
17.2 |
2.7 |
Note: *EPS is diluted. **DPS excludes special dividends.
AUME increases with revenue diversification
At end-June Record’s AUME stood at $84.5bn, an increase of 5% compared with end-March (in sterling terms to £61.2bn, also an increase of 5%). There was a net inflow of $1.8bn (2%), split evenly between passive hedging and currency for return. The latter included the Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund, which launched at end-June at a size of approximately $0.75bn. The fund is important as it is a first step in the group’s strategy to create new products in collaboration with clients to grow and diversify revenue. It also provides an entry point to sustainable investment as an area for development and commands a significantly higher fee margin than existing products. Changes in exchange rates and market levels together with scaling of volatility targeting mandates resulted in a positive movement in AUME of $2.6bn (3%). The client count was reduced to 87 from 89 as two legacy funds with negligible AUME were closed in the quarter. Average fee rates were broadly stable and no performance fees were earned in the period.
Further estimate increase
Following the increase in AUME in Q122, we have again raised our estimates for FY22. An increase of 3% in our revenue assumption results in a 6% increase in diluted earnings per share (see Exhibit 3 for further details). As with previous estimates, we do not allow for further unannounced prospective fund flows or potential performance fees.
Valuation
On our revised estimate, the shares trade on a prospective P/E of 17x, a premium to the average for a selection of UK asset managers (Exhibit 2). Supporting this are the recent upward trend in AUME, the potential for further new product development and possible crystallisation of performance fees over time.
AUME changes and investment performance
Changes in Q122 AUME are analysed in Exhibit 1. Looking at the AUME figures, within the overall 5% increase in the quarter the largest change (+38%) was in the currency for return category; as noted earlier, this includes the Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund launched at the end of June.
Within the 33% y-o-y increase, the largest percentage change (+238%) has been in dynamic hedging, with the winning of a large mandate announced in September 2020 reflected in the $6.5bn 12-month inflow for the category. In absolute terms, the largest increase year-on-year was in passive hedging ($9.9bn, 18%), reflecting a combination of market moves and inflows (7%). Splitting the 33% AUME 12-month increase of $21.2bn in another way, 57% was accounted for by flows and 43% by market and other moves.
Exhibit 1: AUME changes
March year-end |
Q121 |
Q421 |
Q122 |
12-month |
Q122 |
$bn |
AUME |
AUME |
AUME |
Net flows |
Net flows |
Dynamic hedging |
2.9 |
9.3 |
9.8 |
6.5 |
0 |
Passive hedging |
53.9 |
61.5 |
63.8 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
Currency for return |
3.1 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
Multi-product |
3.2 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
1.0 |
0 |
Cash and futures |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0 |
Total |
63.3 |
80.1 |
84.5 |
12.0 |
1.8 |
Markets |
6.1 |
1.3 |
|||
FX and scaling for mandate volatility targeting |
3.1 |
1.3 |
|||
Total change |
21.2 |
4.4 |
Source: Record, Edison Investment Research
Investment performance of the multi-strategy product was positive in the quarter, with the multi-strategy composite targeting 4% volatility, generating a quarterly return of 0.88% and an annualised, since-inception return of 0.93%. Hedging returns for US Dynamic clients were negative in the quarter with value added for a representative account of -0.44%, but the annualised performance since inception (April 2009) stood at 0.41%. Tenor-managed passive hedging returns were also negative during the quarter (-0.004% with annualised performance since October 2014 inception of 0.08%). Here, central bank injections of US dollar liquidity resulted in relative stability in forward market pricing, limiting the opportunity for gains through tenor management. From a client perspective, the passive hedging ratio is maintained in these mandates, although current market conditions mean the opportunity to limit hedging costs and for Record to earn performance fees is constrained.
Valuation comparison
Exhibit 2 shows an updated version of our comparative valuation table, with a selection of quoted UK fund managers. Record shares still trade at a premium to the average prospective, calendarised P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, although this is moderated by the further increase in our estimate.
Exhibit 2: Comparing valuation with UK fund managers
Price |
Market cap (£m) |
P/E |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA 2021e (x) |
Dividend yield (%) |
|
Ashmore |
382 |
2,713 |
14.7 |
14.9 |
10.1 |
4.4 |
City of London Investment Group |
516 |
260 |
10.5 |
9.8 |
N/A |
5.8 |
Impax Asset Management |
1,159 |
1,530 |
36.4 |
26.9 |
29.2 |
0.7 |
Jupiter |
285 |
1,567 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
Liontrust |
2,059 |
1,253 |
20.5 |
17.2 |
14.3 |
2.3 |
Man Group |
196 |
3,888 |
9.9 |
10.8 |
7.3 |
3.9 |
Polar Capital |
883 |
880 |
14.0 |
12.1 |
9.0 |
4.5 |
Schroders |
3,675 |
9,674 |
16.9 |
15.6 |
12.5 |
3.1 |
Average |
16.6 |
14.8 |
12.6 |
3.9 |
||
Record |
87 |
167 |
19.4 |
16.0 |
14.1 |
2.7 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/E and EV/EBITDA on a calendar-year basis. Record’s dividend yield excludes the special dividend. Priced at 28 July 2021.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
£000s |
|
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
Year end 31 March |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
23,834 |
24,973 |
25,563 |
25,412 |
32,995 |
Operating expenses |
|
|
(16,735) |
(17,089) |
(17,996) |
(19,333) |
(20,882) |
Other income/(expense) |
|
|
173 |
(8) |
82 |
41 |
0 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
7,272 |
7,876 |
7,649 |
6,120 |
12,114 |
Finance income |
|
|
56 |
113 |
88 |
33 |
38 |
Profit Before Tax |
|
|
7,328 |
7,989 |
7,737 |
6,153 |
12,152 |
Taxation |
(1,182) |
(1,559) |
(1,365) |
(802) |
(2,309) |
||
Minority interests |
|
|
0 |
0 |
48 |
0 |
0 |
Attributable profit |
|
|
6,146 |
6,430 |
6,420 |
5,351 |
9,843 |
Revenue/AuME (excl. perf fees) bps |
|
|
5.1 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
Operating margin (%) |
|
|
30.5 |
31.5 |
29.9 |
24.1 |
36.7 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
|
206.5 |
198.1 |
197.1 |
196.2 |
194.9 |
Basic EPS (p) |
|
|
3.03 |
3.27 |
3.26 |
2.75 |
5.06 |
EPS - diluted (p) |
|
|
2.98 |
3.25 |
3.26 |
2.73 |
5.05 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
Special dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.50 |
0.69 |
0.41 |
0.45 |
2.10 |
Total dividend (p) |
|
|
2.80 |
2.99 |
2.71 |
2.75 |
4.40 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-current assets |
|
|
2,339 |
2,161 |
4,868 |
5,153 |
4,488 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
228 |
288 |
470 |
420 |
405 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
910 |
761 |
751 |
683 |
533 |
Investments |
|
|
1,115 |
1,112 |
2,472 |
3,046 |
3,046 |
Other |
|
|
86 |
0 |
1,175 |
1,004 |
504 |
Current Assets |
|
|
29,737 |
31,427 |
31,149 |
28,045 |
33,470 |
Debtors |
|
|
6,775 |
7,562 |
8,704 |
8,006 |
10,088 |
Cash |
|
|
12,498 |
12,966 |
14,294 |
6,847 |
10,190 |
Money market instruments |
|
|
10,198 |
10,735 |
7,958 |
12,932 |
12,932 |
Other |
|
|
266 |
164 |
193 |
260 |
260 |
Current liabilities |
|
|
(5,525) |
(6,158) |
(6,955) |
(5,992) |
(6,383) |
Creditors |
|
|
(2,630) |
(2,736) |
(3,009) |
(3,426) |
(4,317) |
Financial liabilities |
|
|
(2,467) |
(2,621) |
(2,191) |
(1,696) |
(1,696) |
Other |
|
|
(428) |
(801) |
(1,755) |
(870) |
(370) |
Non-current liabilities |
|
|
0 |
(29) |
(901) |
(407) |
(407) |
Net Assets |
|
|
26,551 |
27,401 |
28,161 |
26,799 |
31,168 |
Minority interests |
|
|
0 |
60 |
132 |
0 |
0 |
Net assets attributable to ordinary shareholders |
|
26,551 |
27,341 |
28,029 |
26,799 |
31,168 |
|
No of shares at year end |
|
|
199.1 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
NAV per share p |
|
|
13.3 |
13.7 |
14.1 |
13.5 |
15.7 |
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
2,746 |
7,026 |
6,543 |
6,798 |
9,569 |
Capex |
|
|
(236) |
(72) |
(243) |
(230) |
(140) |
Cash flow from other investing activities |
|
|
7,899 |
(561) |
1,513 |
(6,210) |
(112) |
Dividends |
|
|
(6,810) |
(5,517) |
(5,888) |
(5,290) |
(5,474) |
Other financing activities |
|
|
(10,367) |
(613) |
(943) |
(2,368) |
(500) |
Other |
|
|
146 |
205 |
346 |
(147) |
0 |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(6,622) |
468 |
1,328 |
(7,447) |
3,343 |
Opening cash/(net debt) |
|
|
19,120 |
12,498 |
12,966 |
14,294 |
6,847 |
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
12,498 |
12,966 |
14,294 |
6,847 |
10,190 |
Closing net (debt)/cash inc money market instruments |
22,696 |
23,701 |
22,252 |
19,779 |
23,122 |
||
AUME ($bn) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opening |
|
|
58.2 |
62.2 |
57.3 |
58.6 |
80.1 |
Net new money flows |
|
|
(1.2) |
(4.5) |
4.6 |
9.7 |
1.4 |
Market/other |
|
|
5.2 |
(0.4) |
(3.3) |
11.8 |
3.2 |
Closing |
|
|
62.2 |
57.3 |
58.6 |
80.1 |
84.7 |
Source: Record accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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