PPHE Hotel Group — Fraught with opportunity

PPHE Hotel Group (LN: PPH)

Last close As at 11/10/2024

1,070.00

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

455m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

PPHE Hotel Group — Fraught with opportunity

PPHE has delivered a strong set of results for 2017. The 14% EBITDA gain was ahead of our expectations, largely owing to core resilience in London, the company’s major profit source, despite a demanding H2 comparative and notable market slowdown. The new properties (Waterloo and Park Royal) also surprised. While 2018 is transitional as management reviews deployment of its greatly enhanced flexibility (c £290m cash equivalents at end-2017), there should still be good progress thanks to recent openings and current momentum. Indeed, our new 2019 forecasts may prove cautious, given such investment potential. PPHE’s modest rating reflects neither this excess liquidity nor its asset backing (fair value c £20/share).

Richard Finch

Written by

Richard Finch

Analyst, Consumer

Consumer

PPHE Hotel Group

Fraught with opportunity

2017 results

Travel & leisure

12 March 2018

Price

1,115p

Market cap

£472m

Net bank debt (£m) at December 2017

408.1

Shares in issue

42.3m

Free float

23%

Code

PPH

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.9

1.6

38.5

Rel (local)

(1.4)

3.4

38.1

52-week high/low

1180p

760p

Business description

PPHE Hotel Group (formerly Park Plaza Hotels) is an integrated owner and operator of four-star, boutique and deluxe hotels in gateway cities, regional centres and select resort destinations, predominantly in Europe.

Next events

IMS

May 2018

Analysts

Richard Finch

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

PPHE Hotel Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PPHE has delivered a strong set of results for 2017. The 14% EBITDA gain was ahead of our expectations, largely owing to core resilience in London, the company's major profit source, despite a demanding H2 comparative and notable market slowdown. The new properties (Waterloo and Park Royal) also surprised. While 2018 is transitional as management reviews deployment of its greatly enhanced flexibility (c £290m cash equivalents at end-2017), there should still be good progress thanks to recent openings and current momentum. Indeed, our new 2019 forecasts may prove cautious, given such investment potential. PPHE’s modest rating reflects neither this excess liquidity nor its asset backing (fair value c £20/share).

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

12/16

272.5

94.1

34.2

69.9

21.0**

11.2

12/17

325.1

107.3

34.5

64.2

24.0

8.2

12/18e

340.0

112.0

38.0

68.8

26.0

8.0

12/19e

357.0

118.0

44.0

81.6

28.0

7.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Plus 100p special dividend

H2 bucks headwinds

As 23% higher H1 EBITDA was driven by recovery in London, a gain of 9% in the half-year to December is no less creditable, given clear slowdown in the capital and major refurbishments in the Netherlands. With core London RevPAR flat in H2 (our estimate), PPHE looks in line with the market, while its flagship Westminster Bridge again markedly outperformed its peers. However, unsurprisingly, cost pressures (eg payroll and property taxes) were to the fore, hence core London EBITDA was apparently down slightly, if by less than we forecast. Waterloo (especially) and Park Royal are stabilising rapidly with an impressive first contribution. Croatia was buoyant (local currency double-digit RevPAR growth) and the Netherlands resilient (RevPAR +3%) despite renovation works (local currency EBITDA down by a quarter).

Developments may well surprise forecasts

On stated investment plans, we are comfortable with existing 2018 forecasts, detailed on page 2, bar minimal adjustments. EBITDA growth will be driven by recent investment in London and Croatia, while H217 suggests costs may be less punitive in core London than feared (we still expect lower margin), even if our RevPAR is now curbed from +2% to flat. 2019 is less clear as management focuses on exploiting flexibility after Waterloo’s sale and leaseback and Arena’s fund-raising.

Valuation: Deals to showcase value creation

Record share price strength suggests overdue recognition of PPHE’s investment case. In particular, the market discount to fair value is highlighted by refinancing valuations that show an excess of £500m+ over book value. Expected investment activity should only accentuate this and draw attention to the company’s strong development record. At 8.0x 2018e EV/EBITDA excluding Waterloo finance lease, the rating is low against an average of c 11x 2018e for branded European peers.

Financials

Exhibit 1: Analysis of revenue and profit

Year-end December (£m)

H116

H216

FY16

H117

H217

FY17

2018e

2019e

Revenue

UK

London

RevPAR

£118

£150

£135

£130

£150

£140

£140

£140

Change

-5%

+4%

Flat

+10%

Flat

+4%

Flat

Flat

Available rooms

1,898

1,910*

1,904*

2,052*

2052*

2052*

2022*

2082

Room revenue

41.0

52.8

93.8

48.2

56.3

104.5

103.5

106.5

Non-room revenue

20.5

22.5

43.0

22.5

23.0

45.5

45.5

46.5

Existing revenue

61.5

75.3

136.8

70.7

79.3

150.0

148.0

153.0

Waterloo + Park Royal**

-

0.4

0.4

9.8

14.2

24.0

35.0

39.0

Total London revenue

61.5

75.7

137.2

80.5

93.5

174.0

183.0

192.0

Leeds and Nottingham

4.9

6.6

11.5

5.1

6.7

11.8

12.0

12.0

UK

66.4

82.3

148.7

85.6

100.2

185.8

195.0

204.0

The Netherlands (€m)***

29.6

29.4

59.0

28.9

25.2

54.1

56.0

60.5

Exchange rate

1.28

1.17

1.22

1.16

1.12

1.14

1.13

1.13

The Netherlands

23.2

25.1

48.3

24.9

22.4

47.3

50.0

53.5

Croatia (HRKm)****

92.1

333.6

425.7

125.2

354.6

479.8

495.0

515.0

Exchange rate

9.63

8.96

9.17

8.64

8.40

8.52

8.40

8.40

Croatia

9.6

36.8

46.4

14.5

41.8

56.3

59.0

61.5

Germany and Hungary*****

10.6

14.5

25.0

14.4

16.3

30.7

31.0

32.5

Owned and leased hotels

109.7

158.4

268.1

139.4

180.7

320.1

335.0

351.5

Management and holdings

1.8

2.6

4,4

2.4

2.6

5.0

5.0

5.5

TOTAL

111.6

160.9

272.5

141.8

183.3

325.1

340.0

357.0

EBITDA

UK

London

Existing

20.3

29.4

49.7

23.4

29.1

52.5

50.5

50.5

Margin (%)

33

39

36

33

36

35

34

33

Waterloo + Park Royal**

-

(0.5)

(0.5)

1.8

4.2

6.0

10.5

12.5

Total London EBITDA

20.3

28.9

49.2

25.2

33.3

58.5

61.0

63.0

Leeds and Nottingham

0.7

1.2

1.9

0.8

1.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

UK

21.0

30.1

51.1

26.0

34.5

60.5

63.0

65.0

The Netherlands (€m)***

9.5

8.4

17.9

8.8

6.4

15.2

15.7

18.2

Exchange rate

1.28

1.17

1.22

1.16

1.12

1.14

1.13

1.13

The Netherlands

7.4

7.2

14.6

7.5

5.8

13.3

14.0

16.0

Croatia (HRKm)****

14.9

158.7

173.6

Neg.

159.1

159.1

165.0

170.0

Exchange rate

9.63

8.96

9.17

8.64

8.40

8.51

8.40

8.40

Croatia**

1.5

17.4

18.9

Neg.

18.7

18.7

19.5

20.2

Germany and Hungary*****

(0.8)

1.7

0.9

1.7

2.6

4.3

4.5

5.3

Owned and leased hotels

29.2

56.3

85.5

35.2

61.6

96.8

101.0

106.5

Management and holdings

3.3

5.3

8.6

4.7

5.8

10.5

11.0

11.5

TOTAL

32.5

61.6

94.1

39.9

67.4

107.3

112.0

118.0

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Including Riverbank extension (184 rooms) from December 2016 and rooms off at Sherlock Holmes (estimated 30 in 2017 and 60 in 2018). **December 2016 Waterloo (494 rooms and April 2017 Park Royal (212 rooms). ***Notably rooms off at Victoria Amsterdam H217 and 2018. ****From April 2016. *****Including June 2016 Nuremberg (177 rooms), July 2016 termination of Berlin lease (155 rooms) and rooms off at art’otel berlin kudamm (estimated 30 in 2018).


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

272,500

325,100

340,000

357,000

EBITDA

 

 

94,100

107,300

112,000

118,000

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

70,900

75,400

80,000

86,000

Intangible Amortisation

(2,500)

(2,400)

(2,500)

(2,500)

Operating Profit

68,400

73,000

77,500

83,500

Net Interest

(34,900)

(40,600)

(42,000)

(42,000)

Associates

(1,800)

(300)

0

0

Exceptionals

6,500

(400)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

34,200

34,500

38,000

44,000

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

38,200

31,700

35,500

41,500

Tax

(100)

(1,700)

(2,000)

(2,500)

Profit After Tax (norm)

34,100

32,800

36,000

41,500

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

38,100

30,000

33,500

39,000

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

42.2

42.2

42.3

42.3

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

69.9

64.2

68.8

81.6

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

69.9

64.2

68.8

81.6

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

83.2

57.6

62.6

74.9

Dividend per share (p)

21.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

34.5

33.0

32.5

33.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

26.0

23.2

23.2

24.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

1,122,300

1,220,200

1,223,000

1,206,000

Intangible Assets

25,200

23,600

23,000

23,000

Tangible Assets

947,200

1,037,200

1,040,000

1,025,000

Income units sold to private investors

122,500

121,200

118,000

115,000

Investments

27,400

38,200

42,000

43,000

Current Assets

 

 

195,600

319,800

278,000

303,000

Restricted deposits

25,500

25,500

25,000

25,000

Stocks

2,400

2,700

3,200

3,200

Debtors

12,600

13,400

13,800

13,800

Cash

144,700

265,700

222,000

237,000

Other

10,400

12,500

14,000

24,000

Current Liabilities

 

 

(173,000)

(93,100)

(81,000)

(80,000)

Creditors

(54,700)

(60,200)

(61,000)

(60,000)

Deposits from unit holders

0

0

0

0

Short term borrowings

(118,300)

(32,900)

(20,000)

(20,000)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(814,700)

(1,006,000)

(968,000)

(958,000)

Long term borrowings

(642,100)

(666,900)

(650,000)

(640,000)

Financial liability to unit holders

(134,000)

(131,600)

(128,000)

(128,000)

Other long term liabilities

(38,600)

(207,500)

(190,000)

(190,000)

Net Assets

 

 

330,200

440,900

452,000

471,000

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

79,500

114,000

112,000

118,000

Net Interest

(37,300)

(43,100)

(43,000)

(43,000)

Tax

0

(700)

(2,400)

(3,000)

Capex

(87,300)

(107,000)

(35,000)

(35,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

(64,300)

152,400

(35,000)

0

Exchange rate

(26,700)

(9,000)

(1,000)

0

Dividends

(50,600)

(9,300)

(10,500)

(11,400)

Other

(500)

79,500

0

(600)

Net Cash Flow

(187,200)

176,800

(14,900)

25,000

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

397,700

584,900

408,100

423,000

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

584,900

408,100

423,000

398,000

Source: PPHE Hotel Group accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by PPHE Hotel Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by PPHE Hotel Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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