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SenSen’s Q1 update signals positive momentum following record FY23 results. Q1 saw customer receipts exceed operating costs on a trailing 12-month basis, a key milestone towards its target to reach profitability this year. Encouraging FY24 lead indicators include a recent tender announcement, potentially one of SenSen’s most significant smart cities deals yet, and the settlement of the Angel dispute, which marks SenSen’s gaming exit. Proceeds from Angel’s investment in SenSen and the ongoing rights issue should support the company to more actively pursue the much larger smart cities opportunity, which is now the group’s sole focus.
Written by
SenSen Networks |
Eyeing scalable growth through smart cities |
Q124 update |
Software and comp services |
2 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
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SenSen Networks is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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SenSen’s Q1 update signals positive momentum following record FY23 results. Q1 saw customer receipts exceed operating costs on a trailing 12-month basis, a key milestone towards its target to reach profitability this year. Encouraging FY24 lead indicators include a recent tender announcement, potentially one of SenSen’s most significant smart cities deals yet, and the settlement of the Angel dispute, which marks SenSen’s gaming exit. Proceeds from Angel’s investment in SenSen and the ongoing rights issue should support the company to more actively pursue the much larger smart cities opportunity, which is now the group’s sole focus.
Year end |
Revenue (A$m) |
Adj EBITDA* |
PBT** |
EPS** |
P/sales |
Net debt/ |
06/21 |
5.5 |
(2.2) |
(2.9) |
(0.59) |
4.9 |
(3.9) |
06/22 |
9.1 |
(7.6) |
(8.4) |
(1.40) |
3.0 |
(3.9) |
06/23 |
10.8 |
(5.1) |
(6.1) |
(0.91) |
2.5 |
2.6 |
06/24e |
13.4 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
0.21 |
2.0 |
(2.5) |
Note: *Adjusted EBITDA excludes non-cash share-based payments. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, other income and exceptional items. ***Net debt includes leases.
Forecasting a tipping point in scalability, profitability
SenSen’s revenue grew 18% y-o-y to A$10.8m in FY23 and we forecast growth accelerating to 25% in FY24. FY24 lead indicators are strong following 18% y-o-y growth in Q1 customer receipts to A$3.1m and a potentially transformational multi-year deal with an Australian government customer, delivery of which is supported by a fully underwritten rights issue of A$2.09m. Management sees North America as a pivotal market, where momentum was strong at end-FY23. In Q1, progress was also made in Canada, where SenSen added its 11th Canadian smart city customer. Supported by cost efficiencies generated from its smart cities focus, we forecast a swing into profitability and positive cash generation in FY24.
Pureplay smart cities operator
In FY23, SenSen began shifting from a multi-vertical focus to a streamlined, single platform strategy centred around smart cities. On 27 October, SenSen exited the gaming market by settling its patent dispute with Angel Group and is now solely focused on smart cities. The case had minimal financial impact, with litigation costs insured and settled without admission. SenSen will transfer its gaming contracts and IP to Angel while raising A$1.8m from Angel’s 45m share subscription, enabling investment in its larger and faster growing smart cities operations.
Valuation: Delivering on a pureplay strategy now key
If SenSen can execute on its focused smart cities strategy and deliver scalable growth in line with our forecasts, a substantial re-rating upwards would be justified in our view. Given our basket of peers is forecast to be loss-making, we value SenSen on EV/sales, where it trades at a 41% discount across FY1e and FY2e, despite expected profitability and higher growth.
Q124 results confirm smart cities focus
FY23 was a pivotal year for SenSen, marked by its move from a multi-sector focus to a refined single platform strategy focused on smart cities.
Smart cities has been the main contributor to performance, making up 66% of FY23 revenue and growing 21% y-o-y. Group revenue increased 18% y-o-y in FY23 to A$10.8m and Q1 customer receipts grew 18% y-o-y to A$3.1m. In FY23, growth was particularly strong in Asia, exceeding 100% y-o-y. SenSen now has contracts within many key government bodies in Singapore following its Sea Ports AI trial.
Despite a minor decline in North America in FY23, momentum has been strong in FY24. SenSen renewed and expanded two Las Vegas contracts and won multiple new surveillance deals. Its ‘cluster effect’ strategy in Canada is seeing similar success to when it was implemented in Southeast Queensland, rapidly increasing Canadian customers from two to nine in FY23, followed by a further two in Q1.
At the start of Q2, management announced a fully underwritten A$2.09m entitlement offer (52.5m shares at A$0.04 per share), where A$900k will be deployed to support the delivery of a significant, multi-year contract with an Australian government customer. We expect details of the deal to be announced soon, but management has stated that this could be one of SenSen’s most significant deals to date and will have multiple upsell opportunities, further validating its strengthening smart cities market positioning.
Unified strategy to drive profitability and cash flow
In FY23, SenSen announced that it was consolidating its Scancam (Retail) operations under a single platform strategy to remove internal silos and align the group under a more unified, efficient strategy. Management is expecting this move to generate annualised savings of more than A$0.8m in FY24, adding to the A$500k achieved in Q323.
On 27 October, the group announced that it had settled its patent infringement legal proceedings with Angel on a no admissions basis, avoiding further litigation costs, which have so far been covered under insurance. Under the terms, SenSen will transfer its minor gaming customer contracts, IP and table monitoring business to Angel, exiting the gaming sector and allowing the company to solely focus on scaling its core smart cities operations. SenSen will continue providing parking and smart surveillance solutions (not gaming table monitoring) to casino properties and SenSen and Angel will release each other in relation to claims and possible claims.
In addition, the company raised A$1.8m through Angel’s subscription for 45m shares at A$0.04 each, providing additional growth capital to invest in the global smart cities opportunity, alongside the A$2.09m entitlement offer. We believe the combined equity raisings will also enable the company to pay down some of its drawn debt, which we reflect in our FY24 forecasts.
Updated forecasts show no profit impact from gaming exit
SenSen has made a strong start to FY24, and we believe the group’s Australian government contract could be a main driver for the year. We expect its exit from gaming will have a small impact on FY24 revenue given the segment’s relative size (8% of FY23 revenue), leading to a marginal reduction in our forecasts.
In Q1, SenSen delivered on a key milestone with customer cash receipts exceeding operating costs on a 12-month rolling basis, see Exhibit 1. This key inflection point shows early signs of success of its refined strategy, where management expects the benefits of the Scancam integration to accelerate in the coming months. We reflect this in our raised EBITDA and margin forecasts, which also include cost reductions from its gaming exit.
As indicated by Exhibit 1, SenSen’s customer receipts will also have to cover COGs to reach break-even and move closer to our forecasts. The group’s shift to selling higher-margin software-only contracts could continue improving the revenue mix and support its trajectory, as seen in the 7.7pp gross margin uplift in FY23.
|
Exhibit 1: Quarterly collections versus operating costs on a 12-month rolling average |
|
|
Source: SenSen Networks |
Additionally, as part of the cost-saving measures, the company also moved offices in Melbourne and Hyderabad to less costly premises where it took out new leases and closed its Perth office, with the objective of reducing ongoing lease payments.
Exhibit 2: Summary of results and changes to forecasts
FY23 |
FY24e |
|||||||
A$m |
Forecast |
Actual |
difference |
y-o-y |
old |
new |
change |
y-o-y |
Revenue |
10.8 |
10.8 |
(0.0)% |
18.1% |
14.3 |
13.4 |
(6.2)% |
24.5% |
Gross profit |
7.5 |
7.5 |
(0.2)% |
32.8% |
11.1 |
10.4 |
(6.2)% |
39.3% |
Gross margin |
69.4% |
69.3% |
(0.1)% |
7.7% |
73.2% |
77.5% |
4.3% |
8.2% |
Adjusted EBITDA |
(5.0) |
(5.1) |
(2.0)% |
34.3% |
2.5 |
2.6 |
3.2% |
N/A |
Adjusted EBITDA margin |
-46% |
-47% |
(0.9)% |
37.6% |
17% |
19% |
1.7% |
(18.4)% |
EBIT, normalised |
(5.5) |
(5.6) |
(2.1)% |
53.4% |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8% |
N/A |
PBT, normalised |
(6.0) |
(6.1) |
(1.9)% |
50.6% |
1.9 |
1.9 |
(1.4)% |
N/A |
EPS - normalised, diluted (c) |
(0.90) |
(0.91) |
(1.9)% |
54.7% |
0.21 |
0.21 |
(1.2)% |
N/A |
Cash flow from operations |
(4.8) |
(4.8) |
- |
37.3% |
1.9 |
1.8 |
(6.1)% |
N/A |
Net debt/(cash) including leases |
2.6 |
2.6 |
- |
N/A |
1.3 |
(2.5) |
N/A |
N/A |
Source: SenSen Networks, Edison Investment Research
As shown above, our forecasts factor in a move to positive cash flow in FY24 and a net cash position of A$2.5m by year-end. The combined total of c A$3.9m from the entitlement offer and issue to Angel is the primary driver of the change in our end-FY24 net cash forecast.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
A$’000s |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
||
Year end 30 June |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
5,533 |
9,145 |
10,797 |
13,447 |
Cost of Sales |
(2,030) |
(3,513) |
(3,314) |
(3,026) |
||
Gross Profit |
3,503 |
5,633 |
7,483 |
10,421 |
||
Other income |
2,807 |
2,978 |
2,529 |
2,529 |
||
Oper. expense (not incl. share-based payments) |
(8,524) |
(8,524) |
(16,217) |
(15,102) |
||
Adjusted EBITDA |
|
|
(2,214) |
(7,606) |
(5,090) |
2,579 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(2,685) |
(8,183) |
(5,605) |
2,037 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(83) |
(536) |
(960) |
(960) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(72) |
(3,173) |
(208) |
(1,000) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(2,840) |
(11,893) |
(6,773) |
77 |
||
Net Interest |
(176) |
(254) |
(463) |
(163) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
(154) |
(148) |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(2,861) |
(8,437) |
(6,068) |
1,874 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(3,016) |
(12,300) |
(7,384) |
(86) |
Reported tax |
(6) |
225 |
(26) |
(1) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2,878) |
(8,488) |
(6,105) |
1,499 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(3,022) |
(12,075) |
(7,409) |
(86) |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(2,878) |
(8,488) |
(6,105) |
1,499 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(3,022) |
(12,075) |
(7,409) |
(86) |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
484 |
484 |
608 |
667 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (c) |
|
|
(0.59) |
(1.40) |
(0.91) |
0.21 |
EPS - diluted normalised (c) |
|
|
(0.59) |
(1.40) |
(0.91) |
0.21 |
EPS - basic reported (c) |
|
|
(0.62) |
(1.99) |
(1.11) |
(0.01) |
Dividend (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
47.0 |
65.3 |
18.1 |
24.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
63.3 |
61.6 |
69.3 |
77.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-40.0 |
-83.2 |
-47.1 |
19.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
-48.5 |
-89.5 |
-51.9 |
15.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,168 |
9,127 |
9,052 |
8,054 |
Intangible Assets |
1,300 |
8,281 |
7,322 |
6,362 |
||
Tangible Assets |
800 |
770 |
1,692 |
1,653 |
||
Investments & other |
68 |
75 |
39 |
39 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
8,022 |
11,391 |
7,286 |
9,366 |
Stocks |
241 |
232 |
486 |
315 |
||
Debtors |
979 |
1,943 |
1,467 |
1,253 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
5,176 |
6,214 |
1,898 |
4,363 |
||
Other |
1,625 |
3,002 |
3,435 |
3,435 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
3,946 |
8,185 |
9,549 |
6,899 |
Creditors |
750 |
1,239 |
1,714 |
1,714 |
||
Tax and social security |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
861 |
1,954 |
3,101 |
451 |
||
Lease liabilities |
306 |
185 |
287 |
287 |
||
Other |
2,028 |
4,806 |
4,447 |
4,447 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
244 |
201 |
1,198 |
1,198 |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Lease liabilities |
138 |
183 |
1,091 |
1,091 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
106 |
19 |
107 |
107 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
6,000 |
12,132 |
5,591 |
9,322 |
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Shareholders’ equity |
|
|
6,000 |
12,132 |
5,591 |
9,322 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before interest and tax |
(3,250) |
(7,770) |
(4,449) |
1,963 |
||
Net interest |
(127) |
(117) |
(335) |
(163) |
||
Tax |
(31) |
0 |
0 |
(1) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(3,409) |
(7,887) |
(4,784) |
1,799 |
Capex |
(253) |
(254) |
(151) |
(151) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
(1,080) |
0 |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
7,043 |
9,644 |
0 |
3,754 |
||
Borrowings |
(414) |
1,120 |
909 |
(2,650) |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(253) |
(506) |
(290) |
(287) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
2,714 |
1,037 |
(4,316) |
2,465 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(1,150) |
(4,315) |
(4,259) |
1,204 |
FX |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Movement in borrowings |
451 |
(1,093) |
(1,147) |
2,650 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(4,315) |
(4,259) |
1,204 |
(3,911) |
Closing net debt/(cash) w/ leases |
|
|
(3,871) |
(3,891) |
2,581 |
(2,534) |
Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts
|
|
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