Molten Ventures — Expected NAV growth of 14% in H127

Molten Ventures (LSE: GROW)

Last close As at 23/10/2026

GBP6.69

▲ 11.50 (1.75%)

Market capitalisation

GBP1,160m

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Research: Financials

Molten Ventures — Expected NAV growth of 14% in H127

Molten Ventures expects to deliver a strong 14% increase in NAV per share in H127 (to end-September 2026) to c 869p, supported by a 15.9% (£244m) constant currency fair value uplift in its gross portfolio, primarily driven by ICEYE, Revolut and its fund-of-funds programme. Molten also maintained a healthy pace of realisations, generating £109m in proceeds (7% of opening gross portfolio value, already close to its through-the-cycle annual target of 10%), compared to £62m in H126, while investing £44m. Another important development is the £175m first close of its Growth Fund, including £75m committed by the British Business Bank and £100m by Molten itself. This marks tangible progress in expanding its third-party capital platform. Based on the last closing price, Molten’s shares trade at a c 23% discount to its expected end-September NAV.

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director of Content, Investment Trusts

molten03

Investment companies

Listed venture capital

26 October 2026

Price 668.50p
Market cap £1,159m
Shares in issue 173.4m
Code/ISIN GROW/GB00BY7QYJ50
Primary exchange LSE
AIC sector N/A
Financial year end 31 March
52-week high/low 719.5p 391.2p

Fund objective

Molten Ventures is a UK 250 index, London-based venture capital (VC) firm that invests in the European technology sector. It has a portfolio of 100+ investee companies and includes a fund-of-funds programme (as well as EIS and VCT schemes), as well as its flagship balance sheet VC fund.

Bull points

  • Strong position in the European VC landscape coupled with an extensive partner network.
  • Some downside protection from preference-share structures.
  • Strong recent realisation activity supporting new investments and share buybacks.

Bear points

  • Continued geopolitical uncertainty and higher-for-longer interest rates may weigh on long-duration assets such as VC.
  • Impact of AI is difficult to predict accurately at this stage.
  • Lack of broad-based recovery in investor appetite could negatively affect Molten’s emerging portfolio.

Analysts

Milosz Papst
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Molten Ventures is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Strong portfolio performance, led by ICEYE

Molten expects its gross portfolio value (GPV) to increase by 11% to c £1,695m in H127, reflecting a £244m fair value uplift (excluding a £10m adverse foreign exchange movement). Positive valuation movements totalling £334m were partly offset by £90m of write-downs. A major contributor was ICEYE, a provider of synthetic aperture radar satellite systems and data, which completed a €450m Series F funding round in June 2026 at a valuation of more than €10bn. As discussed in our previous note, this implied a £238m uplift in Molten’s holding relative to its end-March 2026 carrying value, bringing its pro forma NAV per share to 877p. Molten also highlighted positive contributions from Revolut, a digital banking platform, and its fund-of-funds investments.

Molten also invested in Isar Aerospace, a European developer of orbital launch vehicles, as part of its Series D funding round in June. Isar Aerospace subsequently became the first European commercial space company to successfully deliver satellites into orbit in September 2026.

Healthy realisations support further investment and buybacks

Molten’s realisation proceeds in H127 were driven primarily by further partial exits of Revolut (£71m) and ICEYE (£22m), carried out at average multiples on invested capital of 19.0x and 14.1x, respectively. These transactions provide further evidence of Molten’s ability to realise substantial value from its most successful investments. Total realisations since Molten’s inception have now reached c £900m.

Molten deployed £44m into new and follow-on investments in H127 (H126: £33m), supplemented by £4m through its managed enterprise investment scheme (EIS) and venture capital trust (VCT) funds. The company also returned £16m to shareholders through buybacks during the period, bringing total repurchases since July 2024 to c £70m, with shares repurchased representing c 9% of the company’s issued share capital. A further £10m extension of the programme, announced today, will follow the completion of the existing £15m tranche.

Not intended for persons in the EEA.

Growth Fund’s first close marks strategic progress

The £175m first close of Molten’s Growth Fund in September 2026, which targets Series B and later-stage investments, represents an important milestone in expanding its third-party capital platform. The fund, which has a target size of £350m, is supported by a £75m cornerstone commitment from the British Business Bank, with Molten providing the remaining £100m. We believe that the third-party capital under management should, in addition to providing additional fee income, support Molten’s deal flow and consistent deployment in later-stage deals, allowing it to participate in a greater number of rounds a year while preserving balance sheet flexibility. Management expects the Molten East and dedicated Secondaries funds to reach their respective first closes by end-FY27 (financial year ending March 2027).

Molten’s realisation activity continues to support its balance sheet, with group cash increasing to £76m at end-September 2026 from £52m at end-March, alongside an undrawn revolving credit facility of up to £60m (subject to borrowing conditions). The company also had a fully drawn £120m term loan at end-March 2026, with both facilities scheduled to mature in September 2027, subject to potential extensions. A further £31m was available for investment through the separately managed EIS and VCT funds. Continued realisations should support Molten’s ability to balance new investments and share buybacks, while the sizeable discount to NAV offers scope for further NAV accretion from repurchases.

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