Last close As at 05/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
Evolva Holding
Written by
Evolva Holding |
On track |
H116 results |
Food & beverages |
1 September 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Evolva Holding is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
H116 results confirmed Evolva is on track: following the stevia delay announced in March, the company has identified bottlenecks and is making good progress towards addressing them. As expected, production constraints with resveratrol have been resolved and nootkatone remains a strong proposition as an insect repellent. Our updated fair value of CHF1.10 per share (previously CHF1.14) reflects a slight move in FX rates and a slight increase in FY16 revenue forecasts, and represents 67% upside from the current share price.
Year end |
Revenue (CHFm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
13.4 |
(32.1) |
(8.0) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/16e |
13.1 |
(34.3) |
(8.6) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17e |
19.4 |
(32.4) |
(8.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
29.4 |
(28.0) |
(7.0) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Stevia progress encouraging
The news of the stevia delay in March was disappointing, but newsflow over the past few months has been encouraging: a European patent has been granted on a significant aspect of production, the FDA has issued a no objection letter, and with the H1 results, we have learned that in the four months since the delay was announced, the bottlenecks have been identified and the company is half way to addressing all the technical issues. We assume stevia is launched in mid-2018, and we believe this may now be too conservative given the speed with which the issues are being addressed, but we are leaving our assumptions unchanged for now as we await another update later this year.
Focus products all performing well
With the announcement of the stevia delay, management also chose to slightly shift the alignment of the company, identifying three focus products (stevia, nootkatone/valencene and resveratrol) and increasing the resource behind them. With the three products all progressing well, the decision seems sound. While the focus has shifted away from smaller products such as saffron and sandalwood, which are likely to progress more slowly, it is nevertheless encouraging that partnering negotiations are still taking place for these products.
Valuation: Fair value of CHF1.10/share
Our new fair value is CHF1.10 (previously CHF1.14). We have slightly increased our FY16 revenue forecast, in line with management guidance for flat revenues, and tweaked our assumptions for santalol, saffron and nootkatone. This results in a cut to 2018 revenues, due to phasing of the ramp up of the various products. Evolva is well capitalised with a cash position of CHF66.7m at June 2016. We forecast the company will have enough cash through to the end of FY17. However, if the option to enter into a JV with Cargill is exercised in 2017 and the previously issued capex guidance of c CHF30m is still valid, Evolva will need to raise more cash by 2018.