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Research: TMT
EQS Group
EQS Group |
Growth stimulus from regulatory changes |
Q3 trading update |
Media |
16 November 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
EQS Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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EQS Group’s Q3 results are the first to incorporate ARIVA, consolidated from 1 July. The purchase of this 51.1% stake was timely, benefiting from projects related to PRIIPs regulation. Year-to-date organic revenue growth of 8% reflects both growing international operations (non-Germany now 24% of group) and a pick-up in domestic activity related to the Market Abuse Directive. Recurring revenues (cloud-based services and licence income) were 71% of top line, despite the level of project work, highlighting the quality of earnings. Our FY16 forecast is unchanged, while FY17 is adjusted for higher ARIVA revenues but greater levels of investment. The shares remain undervalued.
Year |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
16.4 |
3.4 |
1.83 |
0.75 |
23.4 |
1.7 |
12/15 |
18.4 |
3.1 |
1.15 |
0.75 |
37.4 |
1.7 |
12/16e |
23.6 |
3.6 |
1.71 |
0.80 |
25.1 |
1.9 |
12/17e |
30.0 |
4.0 |
2.09 |
0.85 |
20.6 |
2.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strong Q3 boosted by ARIVA
ARIVA’s performance has exceeded that expected at the time EQS took the majority stake as clients have implemented projects to get their reporting templates set up ahead of the implementation of the PRIIPs regulation (see our September 2016 outlook note). The date for this has been pushed back from January 2017 by one year to take account of the complexities that have become apparent as people have been preparing. The project work should continue in the interim and lays the ground for longer-term licence revenues. Elsewhere in the business, the Market Abuse Directive has bolstered sales of INSIDER MANAGER, generating initial fees and lining up future licence revenues. Revenues continue to build outside Germany, with Asian top-line growth significantly narrowing the losses and promising progress in Russia and the UK. The Middle Eastern and US operations are still early stage.
Investment to deliver longer-term growth
We have slightly lifted our FY17 revenue number from €28.9m to €30.0m, but the additional expense to be incurred in delivering contracts will drag on the EBIT margin and we have made a precautionary 7% trim to our pre-tax number to €4.0m. Net debt rose to €8.9m at end September, but underlying cash generation is good and our model shows a year-end figure of €7.5m, falling to €6.7m by end FY17.
Valuation: Discount narrowed, but still overstated
EQS remains in its investment/growth phase, so comparisons with large global financial information companies are inevitably distorted. Using blended historic and forward multiples to revenue and EBITDA, it is clear that, although the shares have performed well over 2016, EQS still trades at a discount to peers of over 20%. We believe this overstates the development risk and expect the discount to continue to close as EQS’s international expansion drives an attractive ROI.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
15,829 |
16,390 |
18,377 |
23,600 |
30,000 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
15,829 |
16,390 |
18,377 |
23,600 |
30,000 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
3,572 |
3,660 |
3,485 |
4,078 |
4,590 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
3,418 |
3,311 |
2,983 |
3,639 |
4,075 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(140) |
(280) |
(351) |
(580) |
(680) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
(211) |
(268) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
28 |
177 |
167 |
71 |
25 |
||
Operating Profit |
3,306 |
2,997 |
2,532 |
3,130 |
3,420 |
||
Net Interest |
(29) |
(52) |
(45) |
(90) |
(100) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,418 |
3,436 |
3,105 |
3,620 |
4,000 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,278 |
2,945 |
2,486 |
3,040 |
3,320 |
Tax |
(1,096) |
(1,105) |
(1,372) |
(1,420) |
(1,260) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,283 |
2,148 |
1,355 |
2,037 |
2,481 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,182 |
1,841 |
1,115 |
1,621 |
2,060 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
1.19 |
1.17 |
1.18 |
1.19 |
1.19 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
191.0 |
182.9 |
115.2 |
171.2 |
208.5 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
183.3 |
156.8 |
94.8 |
136.2 |
173.1 |
Dividend per share (c) |
75.0 |
75.0 |
75.0 |
80.0 |
85.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
22.6 |
22.3 |
19.0 |
17.3 |
15.3 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
21.6 |
20.2 |
16.2 |
15.4 |
13.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
13,658 |
19,383 |
22,287 |
31,437 |
33,522 |
Intangible Assets |
10,524 |
15,827 |
17,360 |
25,151 |
25,151 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,032 |
1,468 |
2,796 |
4,526 |
6,611 |
||
Investments |
2,103 |
2,088 |
2,131 |
1,760 |
1,760 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
6,055 |
4,750 |
6,972 |
7,034 |
8,781 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
2,971 |
3,282 |
3,215 |
4,784 |
6,281 |
||
Cash |
2,980 |
1,370 |
3,607 |
2,100 |
2,350 |
||
Other |
104 |
98 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(3,274) |
(4,380) |
(5,325) |
(9,680) |
(11,267) |
Creditors |
(2,273) |
(2,689) |
(3,475) |
(7,880) |
(10,017) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1,001) |
(1,691) |
(1,850) |
(1,800) |
(1,250) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,070) |
(3,882) |
(6,805) |
(9,838) |
(9,838) |
Long term borrowings |
(982) |
(2,500) |
(4,767) |
(7,800) |
(7,800) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(88) |
(1,382) |
(2,038) |
(2,038) |
(2,038) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
15,369 |
15,870 |
17,129 |
18,953 |
21,198 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
2,476 |
4,050 |
4,989 |
3,903 |
5,100 |
Net Interest |
(29) |
(52) |
(45) |
(90) |
(100) |
||
Tax |
(1,096) |
(1,105) |
(1,371) |
(1,384) |
(1,380) |
||
Capex |
(3,088) |
(1,041) |
(1,978) |
(1,500) |
(1,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
(3,669) |
(1,046) |
(4,500) |
(325) |
||
Equity Financing |
(202) |
(100) |
569 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(892) |
(1,623) |
(883) |
(890) |
(950) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(2,831) |
(3,540) |
235 |
(4,461) |
845 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,827) |
(996) |
2,821 |
3,009 |
7,500 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
(277) |
(423) |
(30) |
(45) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(996) |
2,821 |
3,009 |
7,500 |
6,700 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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