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Research: Industrials
Epwin Group
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Epwin Group |
Stormking – another earnings-enhancing deal |
Acquisition |
Construction & materials |
8 January 2016 |
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Epwin Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Epwin has announced its second earnings-enhancing acquisition of FY15. The purchase of Stormking Plastics – for an initial £27m, plus deferred consideration of up to £8m representing 6x EBITDA – adds a complementary manufacturer of building products. The deal enhances our fully diluted EPS estimates by c 12% in both FY16 and FY17. Consequently, Epwin’s P/E is now below 10x in FY17, with strong yield attractions.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/13 |
255.3 |
14.5 |
10.1 |
0.0 |
14.0 |
N/A |
12/14 |
259.5 |
18.0 |
11.2 |
4.2 |
12.7 |
3.0 |
12/15e |
258.2 |
19.3 |
11.5 |
6.4 |
12.3 |
4.5 |
12/16e |
295.5 |
24.2 |
13.8 |
6.6 |
10.3 |
4.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptionals.
Strong complement to existing Epwin business
Stormking is a leading manufacturer of moulded glass reinforced plastic (GRP) products primarily for the new build residential market. Its broad range comprises external functional and decorative lines including dormers, porticos and canopies, as well as other roofing, coping and ancillary items. These products strongly complement Epwin’s existing offering, extend its manufacturing process capability and bring opportunities to further develop a number of market channels. In the year to February 2016, trading financials are expected to have risen to revenue of £25m and EBITDA of c £4.5m (vs £22.8m and £3.0m respectively in the previous year).
Acquisition funded by cash and shares
The initial consideration is £27m; a further deferred payment (up to £8m) is dependent on Stormking’s performance in its year to February 2017. Both elements are to be settled with a 75:25 split of cash and new Epwin shares. Renewed and enlarged banking facilities (ie a £20m amortising term loan and a £30m RCF, to December 2019) are funding the cash element of the deal. New shares are to be subject to lock-in arrangements. Management commented that FY15 profitability is in line with market estimates so our earnings estimates for that year are unchanged, although our year-end balance sheet and cash flow statements now reflect the transaction. (We had previously expected Epwin to be modestly cash positive at the end of FY15.) We estimate that Stormking enhances our previous FY16 and FY17 fully diluted EPS estimates by c 12%.
Valuation: Improving earnings profile and good yield
Epwin has developed from a relatively flat earnings outlook at the time of its IPO (in mid-2014) to our expected three-year fully diluted EPS CAGR to FY17 of 4.5% before Stormking and 9.3% now. Consequently, the company’s P/E ratio declines steadily from 12.3x for FY15 to 9.8x in FY17, with a corresponding post-acquisition EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x. In addition, Epwin offers a dividend yield of c 4.5%, with prospective growth thereafter.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m's |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
2017e |
||
December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
Restated |
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
294.4 |
255.3 |
259.5 |
258.2 |
295.5 |
306.3 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(209.9) |
(185.8) |
(186.7) |
(183.6) |
(210.1) |
(217.7) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
84.5 |
69.5 |
72.8 |
74.6 |
85.4 |
88.5 |
EBITDA |
|
|
21.8 |
21.3 |
24.5 |
25.6 |
32.1 |
33.3 |
Operating Profit (before GW and except.) |
15.4 |
15.5 |
19.5 |
20.0 |
25.8 |
26.8 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(1.7) |
(1.7) |
(1.7) |
(0.0) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(4.3) |
(5.1) |
2.3 |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.8) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
Operating Profit |
|
|
9.4 |
8.7 |
19.3 |
19.3 |
24.5 |
25.5 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(1.9) |
(1.0) |
(0.7) |
(0.3) |
(1.2) |
(1.0) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
13.5 |
14.5 |
18.0 |
19.3 |
24.2 |
25.4 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
7.5 |
7.8 |
18.6 |
19.0 |
23.4 |
24.5 |
Tax |
|
|
(2.2) |
(1.2) |
(3.5) |
(3.7) |
(4.6) |
(4.8) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
10.4 |
12.3 |
14.4 |
15.6 |
19.6 |
20.5 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
4.5 |
5.0 |
15.1 |
15.4 |
18.8 |
19.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
122.3 |
122.3 |
128.0 |
135.3 |
141.4 |
141.7 |
|
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
8.5 |
10.1 |
11.2 |
11.6 |
13.9 |
14.5 |
EPS - normalised (p) FD |
|
|
|
|
11.2 |
11.5 |
13.8 |
14.4 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
3.7 |
4.1 |
11.8 |
11.3 |
13.3 |
13.9 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.2 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
28.7 |
27.2 |
28.1 |
28.9 |
28.9 |
28.9 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
7.4 |
8.4 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
5.2 |
6.1 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
8.7 |
8.7 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
56.9 |
54.7 |
53.8 |
86.6 |
89.0 |
90.1 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
27.9 |
26.4 |
24.7 |
52.8 |
51.9 |
53.1 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
26.1 |
25.1 |
26.2 |
30.9 |
34.1 |
34.1 |
Other |
|
|
2.8 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
Current Assets |
|
|
59.9 |
62.1 |
62.3 |
73.4 |
83.7 |
91.0 |
Stocks |
|
|
20.9 |
21.7 |
22.4 |
23.3 |
25.7 |
26.6 |
Debtors |
|
|
37.4 |
40.1 |
37.6 |
42.7 |
43.9 |
45.9 |
Cash |
|
|
1.6 |
0.3 |
2.3 |
7.4 |
14.1 |
18.5 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(53.2) |
(54.5) |
(49.0) |
(52.7) |
(55.4) |
(57.7) |
Creditors |
|
|
(49.1) |
(51.5) |
(48.6) |
(52.7) |
(55.4) |
(57.7) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(4.1) |
(3.0) |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(32.0) |
(25.7) |
(4.3) |
(27.8) |
(27.8) |
(22.8) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(20.6) |
(16.0) |
(0.8) |
(24.4) |
(24.4) |
(19.4) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(11.4) |
(9.7) |
(3.5) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
Net Assets |
|
|
31.5 |
36.6 |
62.8 |
79.6 |
89.5 |
100.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
15.7 |
12.0 |
19.8 |
24.7 |
30.3 |
32.1 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(1.4) |
(0.9) |
(0.7) |
(0.3) |
(1.2) |
(1.0) |
Tax |
|
|
(1.6) |
(0.9) |
(1.7) |
(3.2) |
(4.1) |
(4.3) |
Capex |
|
|
(4.6) |
(4.9) |
(5.6) |
(8.8) |
(9.5) |
(6.5) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(28.2) |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
(23.9) |
0.0 |
(1.5) |
Financing |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.9) |
(6.7) |
(8.8) |
(9.4) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(20.2) |
5.1 |
19.9 |
(18.1) |
6.7 |
9.4 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
0.5 |
23.2 |
18.7 |
(1.1) |
17.0 |
10.3 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
(2.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
0.0 |
(0.1) |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
23.2 |
18.7 |
(1.1) |
17.0 |
10.3 |
0.9 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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