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Research: Financials
DeA Capital
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DeA Capital |
Transformation progress |
Q315 results |
Investment companies |
23 November 2015 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next event
Analyst
DeA Capital is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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DeA Capital’s NAV per share at 30 September 2015 was €2.17, little changed from €2.18 at 30 June 2015. The company has made progress on its path to reposition itself as an alternative asset manager rather than a private equity investor in Q315. It received the cash from the part-disposal of its stake in Migros and made an application to Borsa Italiana to list a REIT. DeA Capital is cash-positive, yields just below 7% according to our dividend estimate and is trading at a discount of around 30% to our estimate of its sum-of-the-parts of €2.10 per share.
Year end |
AUM |
Fees from AAM (€m) |
NAV/share |
DPS |
P/NAV |
Yield |
12/13 |
10.51 |
76.4 |
2.30 |
0.00 |
0.65 |
N/A |
12/14 |
10.46 |
66.0 |
2.41 |
0.30 |
0.62 |
20.4 |
12/15e |
10.80 |
65.2 |
2.21 |
0.10 |
0.66 |
6.8 |
12/16e |
11.31 |
64.5 |
2.17 |
0.10 |
0.68 |
6.8 |
Note: NAV is stated NAV, including goodwill.
Migros part-disposal completed
In July 2015, DeA Capital received €107.7m from the disposal of half of its holding in Migros, which also gave it a capital gain of €46.3m. The transaction was included in DeA Capital’s Q2 results but the cash was not received until Q3. The cash was used to pay down debt. As a result of the transaction, private equity investments accounted for 59% of its investment portfolio at end September 2015, down from 69% at end December 2014. Its Migros stake now accounts for 15% of its investment portfolio compared with 33% at the end of December 2014. DeA Capital intends to reduce the proportion of its investment portfolio invested in private equity further in future years by disposal, but in the meantime will focus on increasing the value of its remaining private equity investments.
Application for REIT listing made
DeA Capital is seeking to reposition itself as an alternative asset manager of real estate and private equity assets. A big step to further the development of its real estate business was the September application to Borsa Italiana to list a REIT of up to €500m. The REIT is expected to list between the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016 and is targeted towards an international investor base. DeA Capital believes there is a large potential international market for high-yielding Italian real estate funds.
Valuation: Good yield and discount to SOTP
We estimate that DeA Capital is currently yielding just below 7% and is trading at a discount of c 30% to our estimate of its SOTP valuation. In our valuation, we have included the asset management activities at our estimate of their fair value using peer comparison rather than the equity value used in the company accounts. We anticipate that further progress in lowering the size of its private equity portfolio will reduce the discount to our SOTP calculation.
Q315 NAV
DeA Capital’s NAV per share at end September 2015 was €2.17, little changed from the end of June 2015 figure of €2.18. The following exhibit shows its components and the change since the end of June. The main change in the NAV calculation is that the €107.7m sale proceeds from the part disposal of the holding in Migros were used in the quarter to pay down debt ,so the group now reports a net cash position (holding company) of €83.9m compared with debts of €37.1m at the end of the previous quarter. DeA Capital is seeking to reduce its holdings in private equity investments as market opportunities allow and return the proceeds to shareholders or alternatively invest them in expanding its alternative asset management activities.
Exhibit 1: Evolution of reported NAV in Q315
NAV |
30 June 2015 |
30 September 2015 |
||
Stake |
Value (€m) |
Stake |
Value (€m) |
|
Sale proceeds* from Migros part disposal |
107.7 |
|||
Migros investment |
6.8% |
89.2 |
6.8% |
72.6 |
Migros |
196.9 |
72.6 |
||
Other PE direct investments |
N/M |
11.6 |
N/M |
11.7 |
PE funds |
N/M |
219.6 |
N/M |
204.4 |
Private Equity |
|
428.1 |
|
288.7 |
IDeA Capital Funds SGR |
100% |
47.5 |
100% |
49.3 |
IDeA Fimit SGR |
64.3% |
142.2 |
64.3% |
144.2 |
Innovation RE |
97.0% |
7.8 |
97.0% |
9.2 |
Alternative Asset Management |
|
197.5 |
|
202.7 |
Total investment portfolio |
|
625.6 |
|
491.4 |
Other net assets/liabilities |
|
(8.0) |
|
(0.6) |
Net financial (debt)/cash |
|
(37.1) |
|
83.9^ |
NAV |
|
580.5 |
|
575.9 |
Shares outstanding (excluding treasury stock) |
|
266.2 |
|
264.9 |
NAV per share |
|
2.18 |
|
2.17 |
Source: DeA Capital, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Received in Q315.^Net cash in holding company of €83.9 with an additional €32.3m held in the alternative asset management companies and €7m by the private equity investment companies make up the consolidated group net financial position of €123.2m.
Alternative asset management
DeA Capital’s alternative asset management activities encompass real estate funds (managed by IDeA FIMIT, AuM €8.6bn at end Q315), private equity funds and fund of funds (managed by IDeA Capital Funds, AuM €1.7bn at end Q315) and project and property management services (IRE/IRE advisory services). DeA Capital seeks to expand its alternative asset management activities by repositioning its private equity funds along thematic lines as it believes that these will have more appeal outside Italy. It will replace its liquidating real estate funds, whose mandates require them to be liquidated after a pre-determined period, by new funds in a REIT and in the reserved funds segments, which do not have fixed lives. Key figures for Q315 are given in the following exhibit.
IDeA Capital Funds increased AuM in Q315 to €1.7bn, from €1.6bn at end H115, as a result of the second closing of its Taste of Italy fund (AuM €140m at end Q315 from €86m at end H115). Fees earned from the sale of this fund resulted in a rise in fees for this unit to 128bp in the quarter, from 98bp in H1, and an uptick in profitability in Q3. We anticipate the fee level to return to around 100bp in Q415 and in 2016.
IDeA Fimit saw its AuMs fall to €8.6bn at the end of Q3 from €9.0bn at the end of H115. As expected, there was some liquidation of its funds in line with their limited life mandates. Fee levels in the quarter at 56bp were broadly in line with H115. Net profits in Q3 were boosted by investment gains and the non-recurrence of exceptional service costs in Q215.On 22 September, IDeA Real Estate, a REIT, submitted a listing application to Borsa Italiana. It is anticipated that the listing will take place between the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016 and will raise up to €500m of equity with borrowing potentially increasing the assets managed to €1bn in the REIT.
IRE/IRE advisory net profits in Q315 were boosted by lower service and personnel costs that were exceptionally high in H115.
We have fine-tuned our 2015 forecasts for the alternative asset management segment in the light of the Q3 results and now expect adjusted net profits of €14.7m, from €13.3m previously.
Exhibit 2: Alternative asset management – key figures
H114 |
H214 |
H115 |
Q315 |
H215e |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
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AuMs (€bn) – end period |
|||||||||
IDeA Capital Funds |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.80 |
|
IDeA FIMIT |
9.0 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
8.6 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
8.5 |
9.40 |
|
10.4 |
10.5 |
10.6 |
10.3 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
10.2 |
11.20 |
||
AuMs (€bn) – average |
|||||||||
IDeA Capital Funds |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
|
IDeA FIMIT |
9.1 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
8.7 |
9.1 |
8.8 |
9.0 |
|
10.5 |
10.4 |
10.5 |
10.4 |
10.3 |
10.5 |
10.4 |
10.7 |
||
Management fees/AuM bp |
|||||||||
IDeA Capital Funds |
96 |
108 |
98 |
128 |
115 |
102 |
106 |
100 |
|
IDeA FIMIT |
62 |
58 |
55 |
56 |
55 |
60 |
56 |
55 |
|
Management and service fees (€m) |
|||||||||
IDeA Capital Funds |
6.7 |
7.8 |
7.6 |
5.2 |
9.5 |
14.5 |
17.1 |
17.5 |
|
IDeA FIMIT |
28.1 |
26.0 |
24.8 |
12.4 |
23.9 |
54.1 |
48.7 |
49.2 |
|
IRE/ IRE advisory |
10.1 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
4.9 |
9.5 |
20.7 |
19.0 |
16.5 |
|
44.9 |
44.3 |
41.9 |
22.5 |
42.9 |
89.3 |
84.8 |
83.2 |
||
Adjusted* net profits (€m) |
|||||||||
IDeA Capital Funds |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
|
IDeA FIMIT |
8.9 |
7.9 |
5.6 |
3.1 |
5.7 |
16.8 |
11.4 |
10.8 |
|
IRE/IRE advisory |
1.7 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.4 |
2.3 |
1.2 |
|
12.5 |
11.4 |
8.5 |
6.5 |
10.3 |
23.9 |
18.8 |
16.6 |
||
Minorities |
(3.2) |
(2.9) |
(2.0) |
(1.1) |
(2.1) |
(6.1) |
(4.1) |
(3.9) |
|
Adjusted net profit (€m) |
9.3 |
8.5 |
6.5 |
5.4 |
8.2 |
17.8 |
14.7 |
12.7 |
|
Net profit/management and service fees bp |
|||||||||
IDeA Capital Funds |
28% |
22% |
26% |
40% |
33% |
25% |
30% |
26% |
|
IDeA FIMIT |
32% |
31% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
31% |
23% |
22% |
|
IRE/IRE advisory |
17% |
16% |
9% |
27% |
15% |
17% |
12% |
15% |
Source: Compiled by Edison Investment Research from DeA Capital segmental analysis. Note: *Adjusted for intangible amortisation, impairments and provisions.
Forecast revisions
We have revised our 2015 forecasts, as shown in the following exhibit. We have increased our net profit expectation for FY15 mainly because of lower tax charges – the Migros gain did not incur a tax charge and DeA Capital has utilised tax losses in the quarter. Our 2016 profit forecasts are unchanged.
We anticipate that DeA Capital will pay a dividend of €0.1 per share for 2015, payable in 2016. For 2014 it paid a special large dividend of €0.3 per share as the company had surplus capital and it wished to reward shareholders. A €0.1 per share dividend will amount to around €27m per year, which is likely to be more than the asset management businesses will earn in the next few years. However, private equity gains/revaluations could be used and the company has the option to pay the dividend from reserves, which amounted to €181m at end September 2015.
Exhibit 3: Changes to estimates
Net profit (€000s)* |
NAV (€) |
Dividend (€) |
|||||||
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
|
2015e |
63,472 |
75,489 |
19 |
2.21 |
2.21 |
0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0 |
2016e |
12,663 |
12,663 |
0 |
2.18 |
2.17 |
0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excluding minority interests.
Valuation
Our preferred valuation measure for DeA Capital is a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP), which we show in the exhibit below. Most of DeA Capital private equity investments are valued at fair value in its accounts. DeA Capital values its alternative asset management subsidiaries at their equity value. We have replaced the equity value of these companies with our estimate of their fair value, which we have calculated as our estimate of their 2015 earnings multiplied by a P/E ratio of 12.4x, the latter being an average multiple of US, UK and Italian asset managers less 12% to account for the early stage of development of the DeA Capital asset management activities. With a forecast of adjusted profits of €14.7m in 2015 for DeA Capital’s asset management businesses, we now value them at €182.2m. This is higher than our previous valuation of €159.6m on 24 September 2015 due to a rise in earnings expectations for DeA Capital’s asset management activities and a slightly higher P/E multiple of 12.4 vs 12.1 previously. The net result is a SOTP of €2.10 per share, from €2.02 previously.
Exhibit 4: Sum-of-the-parts
30 September 2015 |
||
Value (€m) |
Valuation method |
|
Migros |
72.6 |
Market prices |
Other PE direct investments |
11.7 |
Net equity |
PE Funds |
204.4 |
Fair value |
Private Equity |
288.7 |
|
Alternative Asset Management |
182.3 |
Edison valuation of asset management at 12.4x 2015e earnings |
471.0 |
|
|
Other net assets/liabilities |
0.6 |
|
Net financial (debt)/cash |
83.9 |
|
Sum-of-the-parts |
555.5 |
|
Shares outstanding end Q315 |
264.9 |
|
SOTP per share (€) |
2.10 |
Source: DeA Capital, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
€000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
||
Year-end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Alternative Asset Management fees |
82,004 |
76,356 |
66,045 |
65,231 |
64,525 |
||
Income (loss) from equity investments |
(18,442) |
6,586 |
(1,673) |
59 |
100 |
||
Other investment income/expense |
(7,884) |
(24,617) |
(56,149) |
73,588 |
3,500 |
||
Income from services |
10,863 |
16,329 |
18,667 |
18,237 |
16,500 |
||
Other income |
1,658 |
4,032 |
509 |
3,162 |
0 |
||
Revenue |
|
|
68,199 |
78,686 |
27,399 |
160,277 |
84,625 |
Cost of Sales |
(64,623) |
(56,212) |
(71,857) |
(63,139) |
(61,669) |
||
Gross Profit |
3,576 |
22,474 |
(44,458) |
97,138 |
22,956 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
3,576 |
22,474 |
(44,458) |
97,138 |
22,956 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
3,035 |
21,574 |
(45,240) |
96,479 |
22,297 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(16,106) |
(72,384) |
(15,318) |
(5,441) |
(5,341) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(13,071) |
(50,810) |
(60,558) |
91,038 |
16,956 |
||
Net Interest |
(6,759) |
(438) |
2,905 |
4,223 |
500 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(3,724) |
21,136 |
(42,335) |
100,702 |
22,797 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(19,830) |
(51,248) |
(57,653) |
95,261 |
17,456 |
Tax |
1,621 |
(4,381) |
1,720 |
(1,986) |
(2,793) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2,103) |
16,755 |
(40,615) |
98,715 |
20,004 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(18,209) |
(55,629) |
(55,933) |
93,275 |
14,663 |
||
Minoriy interests |
(8,068) |
24,499 |
(1,668) |
(17,786) |
(2,000) |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
(26,277) |
(31,130) |
(57,601) |
75,489 |
12,663 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
277.5 |
274.0 |
274.7 |
268.3 |
264.9 |
||
EPS - normalised |
|
|
(3.7) |
15.1 |
(15.4) |
30.2 |
6.8 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted |
|
|
(3.7) |
15.1 |
(15.4) |
30.2 |
6.8 |
EPS - (IFRS) |
|
|
(9.5) |
(11.4) |
(21.0) |
28.1 |
4.8 |
Dividend per share (€) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
5.2 |
28.6 |
-162.3 |
60.6 |
27.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
5.2 |
28.6 |
-162.3 |
60.6 |
27.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
4.5 |
27.4 |
-165.1 |
60.2 |
26.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
1,060,645 |
971,549 |
786,141 |
637,108 |
621,108 |
Intangible Assets |
314,883 |
244,778 |
229,711 |
224,538 |
218,538 |
||
Tangible Assets |
58,669 |
73,336 |
39,988 |
41,834 |
41,834 |
||
Investments |
687,093 |
653,435 |
516,442 |
370,736 |
360,736 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
66,884 |
81,018 |
117,585 |
158,723 |
162,396 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
27,537 |
44,406 |
53,389 |
40,161 |
40,161 |
||
Cash |
29,156 |
26,396 |
55,583 |
114,235 |
117,908 |
||
Other |
10,191 |
10,216 |
8,613 |
4,327 |
4,327 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(94,621) |
(72,338) |
(36,193) |
(32,368) |
(32,368) |
Creditors |
(49,532) |
(32,920) |
(35,833) |
(32,008) |
(32,008) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(45,089) |
(39,418) |
(360) |
(360) |
(360) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(173,461) |
(173,670) |
(40,911) |
(24,633) |
(24,633) |
Long term borrowings |
(142,802) |
(150,198) |
(5,201) |
(1,201) |
(1,201) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(30,659) |
(23,472) |
(35,710) |
(23,432) |
(23,432) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
859,447 |
806,559 |
826,622 |
738,830 |
726,503 |
Minorities |
(136,309) |
(177,070) |
(173,109) |
(154,686) |
(151,186) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
723,138 |
629,489 |
653,513 |
584,144 |
575,317 |
Year-end number of shares m |
274.6 |
274.0 |
271.6 |
264.9 |
264.9 |
||
NAV per share |
2.63 |
2.30 |
2.41 |
2.21 |
2.17 |
||
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(23,752) |
(49,664) |
188,419 |
179,836 |
35,663 |
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,049) |
(4,519) |
(1,476) |
159 |
0 |
||
Financing |
14,657 |
55,917 |
(151,805) |
(16,094) |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(6,290) |
(5,643) |
(5,951) |
(105,152) |
(31,990) |
||
Cash flow |
(16,434) |
(3,909) |
29,187 |
58,749 |
3,673 |
||
Other items |
(1,174) |
1,149 |
0 |
(97) |
0 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
117,167 |
158,735 |
163,220 |
(50,022) |
(112,674) |
Movement in debt |
23,960 |
1,725 |
(184,055) |
(4,000) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
158,735 |
163,220 |
(50,022) |
(112,674) |
(116,347) |
Source: DeA Capital, Edison Investment Research
|