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GBP2.22
▲ 1.00 (0.45%)
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GBP508m
Research: TMT
Following April’s trading update, GB Group’s (GBG) FY17 results held no major surprises, with the fraud, risk management and location services continuing to underpin strong growth. The incoming CEO plans to continue to execute the group’s internationalisation strategy and investment will be managed to maintain EBITA margins at c 20% over the medium term; while marginally lower than our FY19 assumption, we raise our EPS forecasts by c 4% in FY18 and c 2% in FY19 reflecting a lower expected tax rate.
Written by
GB Group |
Business as usual |
FY17 results |
Software & comp services |
8 June 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
GB Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Following April’s trading update, GB Group’s (GBG) FY17 results held no major surprises, with the fraud, risk management and location services continuing to underpin strong growth. The incoming CEO plans to continue to execute the group’s internationalisation strategy and investment will be managed to maintain EBITA margins at c 20% over the medium term; while marginally lower than our FY19 assumption, we raise our EPS forecasts by c 4% in FY18 and c 2% in FY19 reflecting a lower expected tax rate.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITA* |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/16 |
73.4 |
13.4 |
13.2 |
8.2 |
2.1 |
47.4 |
0.5 |
03/17 |
87.5 |
17.0 |
16.5 |
9.9 |
2.4 |
39.2 |
0.6 |
03/18e |
117.1 |
23.3 |
22.6 |
12.0 |
2.5 |
32.4 |
0.6 |
03/19e |
133.4 |
27.0 |
26.4 |
13.6 |
2.8 |
28.6 |
0.7 |
Note: *EBIT, PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Tax boost to FY17 earnings
Revenues of £87.5m (+19% y-o-y, of which 12% was organic) and EBITA of £17.0m (+27%) were in line with April’s trading update. The group benefited from a tax credit (versus the 21% tax charge we had forecast) as a result of movements to its deferred tax asset and the increased use of patent box tax relief, which boosted the group’s earnings; adjusting for this, adjusted EPS was in line with our forecast. All service lines – bar ID Engage, which is experiencing some competitive pressure – grew strongly, particularly the fraud and risk management products. A dividend of 2.35p (+13% y-o-y) has been proposed.
Incoming CEO; global aspects unique
CEO Chris Clark joined GBG in April, replacing Richard Law. Although early in his tenure, he outlined his initial views on the group and its strategy, which is unlikely to see a major change in direction, with the focus remaining on driving the globalised nature of both the data sets and customer base, features he considers unique to the group. Management plans to hold EBITA margins at the 20% level as it steps up investment to integrate the product offerings and expand its capabilities in the faster growing segments; we update our forecasts to reflect this although, net of a slightly lower tax rate, we increase our FY18 and FY19 EPS forecasts by c 4% and c 2% respectively.
Valuation: Organic and acquisition prospects
43% of GBG’s revenues are coming from fraud and risk management services. On an FY18e P/E of 32x, the shares are already factoring in the group’s superior growth prospects to other identity management groups (average FY17 P/E of 25x), but trade at a discount to the wider internet security peer set (average FY17 P/E of 45x). We believe the organic opportunities open to the group support the rating at these levels and, with an active acquisition strategy and a strong M&A track record, there is room for further growth-driven share price upside.
FY17 results summary – tax benefit boosts earnings
Revenue growth of 19% to £87.5m and adjusted EBITA of £17.0m, up 27%, had been pre-announced in April’s trading update.
Net of £498k finance costs, adjusted PBT of £16.5m (up 25% y-o-y) was in line with our forecasts. However, GBG’s adjusted EPS of 13.1p (up 24% y-o-y), which was considerably ahead of our forecast (9.7p) was flattered by a £668k tax credit as a result of changes to deferred tax entitlements, R&D and patent box tax relief (which allows companies to apply for a lower rate of corporation tax for earnings related to its patented inventions). In our calculation of adjusted EPS for FY17 we use an adjusted tax rate of 21%, which implies an adjusted EPS of 9.9p (+20% y-o-y). Although our measure of EPS is conservative, we believe it gives a more meaningful picture of the group’s underlying longer-term earnings pattern.
Reported PBT of £10.1m (up 8% y-o-y) captures a higher charge for amortisation of acquired intangibles of £4.0m following the acquisition of ID Scan during the year, as well as associated exceptional costs relating to its acquisition of £1.4m and share-based payments of £1.0m.
Operating cash flow of £16.3m (FY16: £13.4m) equates to an 87% cash conversion, slightly down on FY16 (91%) owing to the strong growth experienced in Asia and from the financial services sector where payment cycles tend to be longer. The group is setting up a wholly foreign-owned enterprise (WFOE) in the region, which should improve the payment cycles (as the organisation would be registered in China and can deal in local currencies).
Exhibit 1: Summary financials
£000s |
2016a |
2017 forecast |
2017 actual |
Variance to forecast (%) |
% change (y-o-y) |
Total revenue |
73,401 |
87,500 |
87,468 |
0 |
19 |
Gross profit |
55,795 |
66,926 |
67,166 |
0 |
20 |
Gross margin |
76.0% |
76.5% |
76.8% |
0 |
|
EBITDA |
14,772 |
19,200 |
18,734 |
(2) |
27 |
Total EBITA |
13,428 |
17,000 |
17,006 |
0 |
27 |
EBITA margin |
18.3% |
19.4% |
19.4% |
0 |
6 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(2,501) |
(2,540) |
(4,022) |
58 |
61 |
Share based payments |
(1,245) |
(1,600) |
(994) |
(38) |
(20) |
Exceptional items |
(94) |
(1,200) |
(1,410) |
18 |
NM |
Share of associate |
- |
||||
Reported operating profit |
9,588 |
11,660 |
10,580 |
(9) |
10 |
Finance charges |
(270) |
(500) |
(498) |
0 |
84 |
PBT - adjusted |
13,158 |
16,500 |
16,508 |
0 |
25 |
PBT - reported |
9,318 |
11,160 |
10,082 |
(10) |
8 |
tax |
(178) |
(3,630) |
668 |
||
FX |
1,096 |
- |
3,685 |
236 |
|
Net profit |
10,236 |
7,530 |
14,435 |
92 |
41 |
EPS (p) - adjusted, diluted (Edison basis) |
8.2 |
9.7 |
9.9 |
2 |
20 |
EPS (p) - adjusted, diluted (GBG basis) |
10.6 |
9.7 |
13.1 |
35 |
24 |
EPS (p) - reported, basic |
7.4 |
5.9 |
8.2 |
38 |
13 |
Net cash |
8,673 |
2,490 |
5,181 |
108 |
(40) |
Source: GB Group (actuals), Edison Investment Research
Divisional analysis and outlook
Total revenue growth of 19% reflects very strong 33% growth from IDP (Identity Proofing) and a solid 8% growth from IDS (ID Solutions). Across the portfolio fraud and risk management (which was also boosted by the acquisition of ID Scan) continue to perform very strongly, as did Identify Registration and Loqate solutions. The ID Engage services were the only area of weakness during the year, affected by an intense competitive climate. Adjusting for the prior year revenues related to Gov.uk/verify and the impact of acquisitions (Loqate and ID Scan), organic growth was 12% across the year.
EBITA margin of 19.4% increased y-o-y despite the £2m losses from GBG’s recently launched Gov.uk/verify service, which has been slower to take off than initially expected. Excluding this investment, underlying EBITA margins were closer to 21.8%.
Exhibit 2: Divisional revenues
£m |
2016a |
2017 forecast |
2017 actual |
Variance to forecast (%) |
% change (y-o-y) |
|
Risk management |
19.8 |
27.6 |
39 |
|||
Fraud management |
8.4 |
10.8 |
29 |
|||
Employment checks |
5 |
5.9 |
18 |
|||
Total IDP |
33.2 |
44.5 |
44.2 |
(1) |
33 |
|
Registering identities |
18 |
21.8 |
21 |
|||
Building relationships (engage) |
12.3 |
10.4 |
(15) |
|||
Locating people |
9.9 |
11.0 |
11 |
|||
Total IDS |
40.2 |
43.0 |
43.3 |
1 |
8 |
|
Total revenues |
73.4 |
87.5 |
87.5 |
0 |
19 |
|
Adjustment for organic growth calculations: |
||||||
Acquisition impact: Loqate and ID Scan |
(6.7) |
|||||
Gov.uk/verify |
(1.6) |
(0.1) |
||||
Adjusted organic revenues |
71.8 |
80.7 |
12 |
|||
IDP EBITA |
6.6 |
8.8 |
8.4 |
(5) |
26 |
|
IDP EBITA margin |
20.0% |
19.7% |
18.9% |
|||
IDS EBITA |
7.7 |
9,3 |
9.3 |
1 |
21 |
|
IDP EBITA margin |
10.5% |
10.6% |
10.7% |
|||
Group/other) |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(0.7) |
(33) |
(24) |
|
Total EBITA |
13.4 |
17.0 |
17.0 |
0 |
27 |
|
EBITA margin |
18.3% |
19.4% |
19.4% |
0 |
6 |
|
Source: GB Group
Outlook and forecasts
Chris Clark, the incoming CEO replacing Richard Law, joined the group in April. Although still early in his tenure, his initial assessment is that the group should continue to build on its core strengths, in particular:
■
Further expanding the international footprint by rolling out more of its product sets on a wider basis; three of GBG’s products are currently available internationally and revenues from outside the UK increased to 31% in FY17 (26% in FY16).
■
Continuing to expand its access to global data sets, increasingly important for companies as they internationalise and already a unique feature of the group; GBG draws on 426 data sets (FY16: 338) across 190 markets.
■
Adding capabilities, both organically and by acquisition.
Chris Clark also sees an opportunity to strengthen GBG’s brand awareness and, by improving the integration of its product portfolio and technologies, extend the cross-sell of services into its customer base. Once the group reaches its targeted 20% EBITA margin (which we forecast during FY18), it intends to maintain margins at around this level by stepping up investment in these areas, as well as expanding its capabilities in the faster growing areas of fraud and risk management.
With the exception of ID Engage (which accounted for 12% of revenues in FY17), we expect the other product areas to continue to grow strongly. No specific guidance has been provided, although 70% of GBG’s revenues recurring in nature, organic growth remained strong in H217 and the deferred income balance of £19m increased 38% y-o-y (of which 19% is from the acquisition of ID Scan), consistent with continued solid growth.
We make no changes to our revenue forecasts, although we trim our FY19 EBITA margin forecast in FY19 from 20.5% to approximately 20% to reflect a slightly higher level of R&D expense. We also lower our notional tax charge from 21% to 19% to take account of the likely ongoing benefit from the patent box tax relief, which means overall a slight increase to our EPS forecast in FY18 (4%) and FY19 (2%). We summarise our forecast changes in Exhibit 3 below and present forecasts in full at the back of this report.
Exhibit 3: Summary forecast changes
£000s |
2018e |
2019e |
||||
|
Previous |
New |
Change (%) |
Previous |
New |
Change (%) |
Revenues |
117,093 |
117,093 |
0.0 |
133,352 |
133,352 |
0.0 |
EBITA |
23,300 |
23,300 |
0.0 |
27,300 |
27,000 |
(1.1) |
PBT |
22,550 |
22,550 |
0.0 |
26,700 |
26,400 |
(1.1) |
EPS (p) - normalised, diluted |
11.5 |
12.0 |
4.4 |
13.4 |
13.6 |
1.8 |
EPS (p) - reported |
7.5 |
7.2 |
(4.4) |
10.9 |
10.8 |
(1.0) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation: Widening opportunities underpins P/E premium
The shares performed strongly over the last three months and now trade on P/Es of 32.4x FY18e and 28.6x FY19e, and an EV/EBITA of 25.1x and 21.6x respectively. While the shares are already factoring in the group’s superior growth prospects to other identity management groups (which trade on an average P/E of 25x FY1), with 43% of revenues now coming from fraud and risk management services we believe this rating should be taken in the context of the wider internet security peer set, which trades on an average P/E of 45x FY1.
Investors should also bear in mind the group’s acquisition strategy and track record. GBG has made 10 acquisitions over the last five years, adding capabilities, data sets and client reach, as well as driving revenue and cost synergies; DecTech (acquired in April 2014), for instance, has seen growth accelerate from 5-10% to 20-30% since acquisition, and has facilitated the launch of new products internationally (eg the fraud bureaus). The acquisition of ID Scan (June 2016) was also in line with this strategy and ID Scan reports an enlarged pipeline since it has been integrated into the group and was earnings accretive in its first full year. More recently, PCA Predict, which complements GBG’s existing address intelligence services, is also expected to be earnings accretive in its first year despite a planned increase in investment.
The global market for identity data intelligence services remains fragmented, which we believe will provide GBG with a steady pipeline of acquisition opportunities. At the year-end GBG reported £5.2m of net cash. Since the year-end it has paid £66m (cash) for PCA Predict (please see our May update note for more information on this acquisition), financed in part with a £58m share placing. In addition, during FY18 it will satisfy earnouts related to the ID Scan acquisition of approximately £7m. Inclusive of these payments we forecast year-end net debt of £0.1m. The group also has undrawn bank facilities in place of approximately £40m.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
£'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
41,835 |
57,283 |
73,401 |
87,468 |
117,093 |
133,352 |
Cost of Sales |
(14,473) |
(16,448) |
(17,606) |
(20,302) |
(28,822) |
(32,797) |
||
Gross Profit |
27,362 |
40,835 |
55,795 |
67,166 |
88,271 |
100,554 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
7,849 |
11,844 |
14,772 |
18,734 |
26,200 |
30,305 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
7,164 |
10,790 |
13,428 |
17,006 |
23,300 |
27,000 |
||
Acquired intangible amortisation |
(1,110) |
(1,986) |
(2,501) |
(4,022) |
(3,500) |
(3,000) |
||
Exceptionals |
(1,080) |
(1,629) |
(94) |
(1,410) |
(2,200) |
0 |
||
Share of associate |
(159) |
(10) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(747) |
(971) |
(1,245) |
(994) |
(1,750) |
(1,699) |
||
Operating Profit |
4,068 |
6,194 |
9,588 |
10,580 |
15,850 |
22,301 |
||
Net Interest |
(79) |
(266) |
(270) |
(498) |
(750) |
(600) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7,085 |
10,524 |
13,158 |
16,508 |
22,550 |
26,400 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,989 |
5,928 |
9,318 |
10,082 |
15,100 |
21,701 |
Tax |
(474) |
(1,127) |
(178) |
668 |
(4,510) |
(5,280) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
5,597 |
8,314 |
10,395 |
13,206 |
18,040 |
21,120 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
3,515 |
4,801 |
9,140 |
10,750 |
10,590 |
16,421 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
109.6 |
119.1 |
122.7 |
131.6 |
147.6 |
152.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
5.1 |
7.0 |
8.5 |
10.0 |
12.2 |
13.8 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) |
|
4.8 |
6.7 |
8.2 |
9.9 |
12.0 |
13.6 |
|
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
3.2 |
4.0 |
7.4 |
8.2 |
7.2 |
10.8 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
65.4 |
71.3 |
76.0 |
76.8 |
75.4 |
75.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
18.8 |
20.7 |
20.1 |
21.4 |
22.4 |
22.7 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
17.1 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
19.4 |
19.9 |
20.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
26,985 |
51,238 |
59,364 |
105,653 |
175,953 |
172,298 |
Intangible Assets |
23,329 |
45,296 |
54,113 |
98,753 |
169,153 |
166,003 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,519 |
2,829 |
2,234 |
2,856 |
2,756 |
2,251 |
||
Other fixed assets |
2,137 |
3,113 |
3,017 |
4,044 |
4,044 |
4,044 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
23,775 |
33,186 |
36,189 |
48,187 |
66,455 |
85,443 |
Debtors |
|
|
11,929 |
17,408 |
23,774 |
30,569 |
47,290 |
54,493 |
Cash |
11,846 |
15,778 |
12,415 |
17,618 |
19,165 |
30,949 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(17,861) |
(30,784) |
(32,559) |
(44,444) |
(58,665) |
(63,568) |
Creditors |
(17,861) |
(24,305) |
(30,927) |
(36,436) |
(50,657) |
(55,560) |
||
Contingent consideration |
0 |
(5,733) |
(1,050) |
(7,122) |
(7,122) |
(7,122) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
(746) |
(582) |
(886) |
(886) |
(886) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2,066) |
(7,506) |
(6,593) |
(15,940) |
(23,040) |
(19,040) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
(3,643) |
(3,160) |
(11,499) |
(18,599) |
(14,599) |
||
Contingent consideration |
0 |
(895) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,066) |
(2,968) |
(3,433) |
(4,441) |
(4,441) |
(4,441) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
30,833 |
46,134 |
56,401 |
93,456 |
160,703 |
175,132 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
9,355 |
11,684 |
13,397 |
16,305 |
21,500 |
28,005 |
Net Interest |
(79) |
(266) |
(282) |
(498) |
(750) |
(600) |
||
Tax |
65 |
(337) |
(248) |
(2,193) |
(4,510) |
(5,280) |
||
Capex |
(1,144) |
(2,011) |
(1,762) |
(2,227) |
(2,700) |
(2,650) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,443) |
(18,672) |
(12,263) |
(36,840) |
(74,000) |
0 |
||
Financing |
416 |
10,954 |
790 |
24,788 |
58,000 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,632) |
(1,955) |
(2,277) |
(2,775) |
(3,093) |
(3,691) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
5,538 |
(603) |
(2,645) |
(3,440) |
(5,553) |
15,784 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(6,308) |
(11,846) |
(11,389) |
(8,673) |
(5,233) |
320 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
146 |
(71) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(11,846) |
(11,389) |
(8,673) |
(5,233) |
320 |
(15,464) |
Source: GB Group (historics), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
|
|
Research: Real Estate
Palace Capital has published strong FY17 results, with rental income of £14.3m feeding through to adjusted EPRA earnings of 22.2p per share (FY16: 18.9p). EPRA NAV of 443p per share was 3.5% ahead of our forecast (431p) and 7% higher than at 31 March 2016 (414p), driven by asset management initiatives, selective disposals at above book value and modest yield contraction. The regional occupier market is reported to be healthy and we continue to expect Palace’s geographic and sector focus, as well as the relatively high yields on the portfolio, to provide some protection from macroeconomic headwinds, including the effects of Brexit, when compared with property in London.