BTG
Written by
BTG |
Small upgrades following interims; strategy intact |
Pharma & biotech |
30 November 2015 |
ADR research
ADR share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
BTG is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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BTG’s interim results have driven upgrades to our financial forecasts with a small boost to revenues from one-off Zytiga backdated royalties. Our operating expenses are broadly unchanged, but adjustments to financial income and tax lead to +12% to FY16e normalised net income. BTG continues to target IM sales >$1.25bn in FY21 from its diverse portfolio of interventional medicine products (including oncology, vascular and pulmonology), with selective investment ongoing in products in the early stage of launch, supported by licensing and specialty pharma cash flows.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PTP* |
EPADR |
DPADR |
P/E |
Gross Yield |
03/14 |
438.6 |
115.6 |
0.29 |
0.0 |
32.2 |
N/A |
03/15 |
555.4 |
86.7 |
0.26 |
0.0 |
36.0 |
N/A |
03/16e |
660.7 |
134.2 |
0.32 |
0.0 |
29.2 |
N/A |
03/17e |
740.6 |
160.7 |
0.32 |
0.0 |
29.2 |
N/A |
Source: Converted at $1.51/US$. Dividend yield excludes withholding tax. Investors should consult their tax advisor regarding the application of any domestic and foreign tax laws.
Strong Interventional Medicine H1 performance
Interventional medicine (IM) grew +36% (+28% at constant FX), driven by a strong performance of both TheraSphere (+32%) and EkoSonic (+41%); these are some of the key future growth drivers. Varithena was flat owing to reimbursement delays leading to lower reordering, which BTG is working to address. Following restocking last year, DigiFab declined 21%. Lemtrada +531% was boosted by the US approval and BTG received one-off, backdated Zytiga-related royalties of £8.5m ($12.8m).
FY16 guidance reiterated
BTG continues to target FY16 sales in the lower half of $620-664m (at $1.61/£); we now forecast $661m (based on $1.54/£, average ytd), with the small upgrade owing to higher Zytiga from £8.5m ($12.8m) of backdated royalties, slightly offset by lower DigiFab. We have made no changes to R&D ($120m, in line with BTG’s outlook of $113-128m). SG&A is only slightly reduced to $225m (from $226m), which is ahead of BTG’s $214-223m outlook. Financial income and tax have both been adjusted to reflect interim trends, with these driving a 12% upgrade to normalised net income.
Varithena: BTG expects an uptick in FY17
BTG is working to address the Varithena reordering rates, including activities to support physicians and payers with claims. The company continues to progress reimbursement coverage and with clarification received over the coding strategy BTG will apply for a permanent CPT code that will cover the cost of the drug and the procedure. A permanent CPT code is usually granted about two years from application. With these endeavours, and current experience showing that Varithena is used across the patient spectrum, BTG expects a sales inflection in FY17.
Valuation: DCF valuation of $5.2bn, $13.59/ADR
Our valuation is adjusted to $5.2bn (from $5.3bn) or $13.59/ADR as a result of FX, small changes to our forecasts and updating for last reported net cash of $167m.
Financials
Exhibit 1: Summary of changes to revenue forecasts
$m |
FY15 |
FY16e |
FY17e |
Comments |
||
Reported |
Old |
New |
Old |
New |
||
Specialty Pharma |
182.9 |
184.0 |
178.4 |
193.8 |
188.1 |
DigiFab decreased by £4.5m ($6.8m) with FY16e growth now -15% (was -5%). |
Interventional Medicine |
170.2 |
237.4 |
238.6 |
337.8 |
339.6 |
No changes to underlying forecasts; only updated for FX (to $1.54/£ from $1.55/£, the average exchange rate fiscal ytd). |
Licensing |
202.3 |
230.9 |
243.7 |
202.6 |
212.9 |
Increased to reflect additional one-off £8.5m ($12.8m) backdated royalty for Zytiga. |
Total revenues |
555.4 |
652.3 |
660.7 |
734.2 |
740.6 |
|
Source: BTG accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note that both our old and new forecasts are convenience translations using our underlying GBP based forecasts, converted at current FX of $1.51/£.
Exhibit 2: Summary of the main changes to our BTG financial forecasts
$m |
FY15 |
FY16e |
FY17e |
||
Old |
New |
Old |
New |
||
Revenue |
555.4 |
652.3 |
660.7 |
734.2 |
740.6 |
COGS |
(173.2) |
(200.6) |
(206.6) |
(220.0) |
(224.7) |
Gross profit |
382.2 |
451.7 |
454.1 |
514.3 |
515.9 |
Gross margin |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
R&D |
(103.1) |
(119.7) |
(119.7) |
(127.1) |
(127.1) |
SG&A |
(188.4) |
(226.5) |
(225.3) |
(249.8) |
(248.6) |
Operating profit (reported) |
52.7 |
54.2 |
58.7 |
79.9 |
82.8 |
Operating profit (normalised) |
99.1 |
114.0 |
117.6 |
145.8 |
148.6 |
Operating profit (underlying) |
102.5 |
105.5 |
112.4 |
137.3 |
140.2 |
Net income (reported) |
50.7 |
56.2 |
69.3 |
70.8 |
73.1 |
Net income (normalised) |
97.1 |
110.1 |
123.5 |
121.5 |
123.8 |
Basic EPS, p |
13.8 |
14.7 |
18.1 |
18.5 |
19.1 |
Normalised EPS (p) |
0.26 |
0.29 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
Source: BTG accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: Normalised numbers exclude amortization, exceptional items (such as FX gains, profits on disposals) and share-based payments. Underlying is as per BTG’s definition, which excludes acquisition related and reorganization costs. Note that both our old and new forecasts are convenience translations using our underlying GBP based forecasts, converted at current FX of $1.51/£.
Valuation
As a result of the changes to our model (increase to Zytiga, decrease to DigiFab, no changes to Interventional Medicine) and updating for FX and last reported net cash of £110.6m ($167m) at end September (from £73.8m/$111.4m at end March 2015), our valuation is adjusted slightly to $5.2bn (from $5.31bn) or 13.59/ADR. Our updated valuation is shown in Exhibit 3.
The main upside to our valuation comes from BTG’s ability to deliver on its target of IM sales of >$1.25bn in FY21. We estimate that the division will generate sales of c $930m in FY21, with the main difference between our forecasts and BTG’s target due to Varithena (we estimate $330m vs BTG expectations >$500m), as we have conservatively excluded the product’s potential in the cosmetic, non-reimbursed US market and in other geographies. If Varithena can achieve peak sales of $500m, our valuation would be $6.2bn ($16.20/ADR), all else being equal.
Exhibit 3: Summary of sum-of-the-parts DCF valuation of BTG
Product |
DCF ($m) |
Partner |
Indication |
Peak sales/ |
Probability of success (%) |
Specialty Pharma (SP) |
589 |
|
|||
CroFab |
- |
Snake anti-venom |
101 |
100% |
|
DigiFab |
- |
Digoxin tocixity |
62 |
100% |
|
Voraxaze |
- |
Methotrexate toxicity |
32 |
100% |
|
Uridine triacetate |
Wellstat |
5-FU toxicity |
43 |
60% |
|
Interventional Medicine (IM) |
1,901 |
|
|||
DC/LC Bead |
Distributors ex-US & EU |
Liver tumours |
121 |
100% |
|
TheraSphere |
Distributors ex-US & EU |
Advanced HCC / Second-line mCRC |
198 |
100% / 60% |
|
EkoSonic |
Distributors ex-US |
Severe blood clots |
154 |
100% |
|
RePneu |
Distributors ex-US |
Emphysema |
192 |
100% |
|
Varithena |
- |
Varicose veins - US reimbursed |
333 |
100% |
|
Licensing (LG) |
152 |
|
|||
Zytiga |
J&J |
Prostate cancer |
180 |
100% |
|
Lemtrada |
Sanofi/Genzyme |
Multiple sclerosis |
35 |
100% (EU & US) |
|
Two-part hip cup |
Various |
Hip replacement |
22 |
100% |
|
Other recurring |
Various |
- |
17 |
100% |
|
Total DCF |
2,640 |
|
|||
Terminal value |
3,139 |
|
|||
R&D |
(666) |
|
|||
Capex |
(76) |
|
|||
Net cash |
167 |
|
|||
Total value ($m) |
5,203 |
|
|||
Value per ADR ($) |
13.59 |
|
|
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note that our valuation is a convenience translation using our underlying GBP based DCF, converted at current FX of $1.51/£.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
$m |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
352.9 |
438.6 |
555.4 |
660.7 |
740.6 |
805.5 |
COGS/revenue sharing |
(101.5) |
(143.5) |
(173.2) |
(206.6) |
(224.7) |
(226.5) |
||
Gross profit |
251.4 |
295.2 |
382.2 |
454.1 |
515.9 |
579.0 |
||
R&D expenses |
(62.2) |
(71.3) |
(103.1) |
(119.7) |
(127.1) |
(132.3) |
||
SG&A expenses |
(87.6) |
(126.8) |
(188.4) |
(225.3) |
(248.6) |
(287.8) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
113.4 |
111.7 |
107.4 |
125.9 |
160.7 |
179.4 |
Operating Profit (norm) |
108.7 |
106.6 |
99.1 |
117.6 |
148.6 |
167.4 |
||
Operating Profit (BTG underlying) |
104.2 |
94.1 |
102.5 |
112.4 |
140.2 |
158.9 |
||
Amortization and impairment |
(65.5) |
(36.7) |
(42.9) |
(51.3) |
(57.4) |
(57.4) |
||
Profit on disposals |
0.6 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Write-offs |
(2.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Restructuring costs |
4.8 |
(22.3) |
4.5 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share based payments |
(7.1) |
(8.0) |
(8.5) |
(8.5) |
(8.5) |
(8.5) |
||
Operating Profit |
|
38.8 |
41.2 |
52.7 |
58.7 |
82.8 |
101.5 |
|
Net Interest |
(2.4) |
9.1 |
(12.4) |
16.6 |
12.1 |
18.1 |
||
Pre-tax profit (norm) |
106.3 |
115.6 |
86.7 |
134.2 |
160.7 |
185.5 |
||
Pre-tax profit (reported) |
36.4 |
50.3 |
40.3 |
75.4 |
94.9 |
119.7 |
||
Tax |
(11.6) |
(13.6) |
10.4 |
(6.0) |
(21.8) |
(31.1) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Average Number of ADRs Outstanding (m) |
326.9 |
355.2 |
367.9 |
382.3 |
382.9 |
382.9 |
||
EPADR - reported ($) |
|
0.08 |
0.10 |
0.14 |
0.18 |
0.19 |
0.23 |
|
EPADR - normalised ($) |
0.29 |
0.29 |
0.26 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.36 |
||
Dividend per ADR ($) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
71.2 |
67.3 |
68.8 |
68.7 |
69.7 |
71.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
32.1 |
25.5 |
19.3 |
19.1 |
21.7 |
22.3 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
30.8 |
24.3 |
17.8 |
17.8 |
20.1 |
20.8 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed assets |
|
465.1 |
853.9 |
1,265.8 |
1,221.9 |
1,168.1 |
1,114.4 |
|
Intangible assets |
315.9 |
600.8 |
902.8 |
853.6 |
798.3 |
743.1 |
||
Goodwill |
89.4 |
186.6 |
277.5 |
277.5 |
277.5 |
277.5 |
||
Tangible assets |
38.4 |
47.3 |
53.6 |
58.9 |
60.4 |
61.9 |
||
Investment in associates |
21.4 |
19.2 |
31.9 |
31.9 |
31.9 |
31.9 |
||
Current assets |
|
357.7 |
220.8 |
313.5 |
422.8 |
533.2 |
621.9 |
|
Stocks |
35.2 |
40.8 |
61.2 |
62.5 |
79.2 |
100.7 |
||
Debtors |
82.3 |
113.4 |
138.8 |
152.0 |
170.3 |
185.3 |
||
Cash |
239.6 |
57.7 |
111.4 |
206.2 |
281.6 |
333.8 |
||
Other |
0.6 |
8.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
||
Current liabilities |
|
(99.1) |
(132.6) |
(174.6) |
(172.1) |
(192.1) |
(208.3) |
|
Creditors |
(93.0) |
(120.6) |
(167.6) |
(165.2) |
(185.1) |
(201.4) |
||
Accruals/deferred income |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Employees/provs/tax |
(2.7) |
(11.9) |
(5.6) |
(5.6) |
(5.6) |
(5.6) |
||
Derivative instruments |
(3.3) |
0.0 |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long-term liabilities |
|
(67.5) |
(141.2) |
(259.3) |
(259.3) |
(259.3) |
(259.3) |
|
Long-term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(67.5) |
(3.9) |
(27.0) |
(27.0) |
(27.0) |
(27.0) |
||
Net assets |
|
|
656.2 |
800.9 |
1,145.5 |
1,213.3 |
1,249.9 |
1,268.7 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating cash flow |
|
92.1 |
83.8 |
94.7 |
109.7 |
100.8 |
121.7 |
|
Net interest |
1.1 |
0.3 |
(0.2) |
16.6 |
12.1 |
18.1 |
||
Tax |
(8.3) |
(10.6) |
(23.0) |
(6.0) |
(21.8) |
(31.1) |
||
Acquisition/disposal of intangibles |
(3.9) |
3.5 |
(2.0) |
(2.1) |
(2.1) |
(2.1) |
||
Capital expenditure |
(11.5) |
(17.5) |
(14.8) |
(13.6) |
(13.6) |
(13.6) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
(393.1) |
(223.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(40.8) |
||
Financing |
0.0 |
155.1 |
222.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.5 |
(3.5) |
(0.3) |
(9.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net cash flow |
69.9 |
(182.0) |
53.8 |
94.8 |
75.4 |
52.3 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
(169.7) |
(239.6) |
(57.7) |
(111.4) |
(206.2) |
(281.6) |
||
HP finance leases initiated |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
(239.6) |
(57.6) |
(111.4) |
(206.2) |
(281.6) |
(333.8) |
||
Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts. Note: Solely for the convenience of the reader the financial summary table has been converted at a rate of US$1.51/£. BTG reports statutory accounts in pounds. These translations should not be considered representations that any such amounts have been or could be converted into US dollars at the assumed conversion rate.
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