eServGlobal’s H118 results confirm it has reduced its cost base further and is still targeting EBITDA break-even for FY18. It also noted it is having conversations with interested parties relating to the disposal of its core business. This would leave the company holding its 35.7% stake in the HomeSend joint venture, which we estimate makes up most of the current valuation.
eServGlobal |
Break-even target reiterated |
H118 results |
Software & comp services |
12 September 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
eServGlobal is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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eServGlobal’s H118 results confirm it has reduced its cost base further and is still targeting EBITDA break-even for FY18. It also noted it is having conversations with interested parties relating to the disposal of its core business. This would leave the company holding its 35.7% stake in the HomeSend joint venture, which we estimate makes up most of the current valuation.
Year end |
Revenue (A$m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
10/16 |
21.6 |
(7.0) |
(3.88) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
10/17 |
10.8 |
(11.7) |
(3.53) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17** |
12.2 |
(15.2) |
(4.17) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
19.0 |
(0.3) |
(1.04) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **14-month period.
Reduced cost base evident in H118 results
eServGlobal saw a small year-on-year decrease in revenues in H118 but, after a period of cost cutting and restructuring, it has materially reduced the EBITDA loss. The company received orders worth €7.7m/A$12.0m in H118, but only recognised €1.2m/A$1.9m in H118, providing a strong backlog going into H218. Management continues to target break-even at the EBITDA level for FY18 and has reduced its expectations for the total cost base for FY18 from €12–12.5m/A$19.0–19.8m to €11–11.5m/A$17.4–18.2m, with further cost reductions likely in FY19. We have made minor changes to our revenue and EBITDA forecasts for FY18. We reflect a higher working capital outflow for FY18 than previously forecast and expect net cash of A$2.5m at the end of FY18.
Potential interest in the core business
The company is having discussions about the core business with potentially interested parties. With the cost base substantially reduced, bad debt issues resolved or being resolved and a growing order book, the core business is now a more attractive proposition for a potential bidder. Excluding central/plc costs, the business could generate a c 20% EBITDA margin, which could make it attractive to a larger player or consolidator in this market. If the company does end up disposing of this business, this would leave a shell company holding the stake in the HomeSend joint venture.
Valuation: HomeSend the main driver
We believe that most of the company’s value is provided by its stake in the HomeSend joint venture. We estimate that in addition to the well-established use of HomeSend for remittance volumes, the share price is factoring in adoption of HomeSend by banking customers for cross-border payments. Evidence of recent bank signings transferring cross-border payments over to the HomeSend platform will be key to supporting and driving the current share price. Contract wins in the core business could also have a more limited impact on the share price.
Review of H118 results
Exhibit 1: Half-yearly results
A$m |
H118 |
H117* |
y-o-y |
Revenues |
5.58 |
5.86 |
(4.8%) |
Gross profit |
1.59 |
(1.35) |
N/A |
Gross margin |
28.6% |
-23.0% |
51.6% |
Normalised EBITDA |
(1.38) |
(5.92) |
(76.6%) |
Normalised EBITDA margin |
(24.8%) |
(101.0%) |
76.2% |
Net income |
(7.69) |
(14.39) |
(46.6%) |
Net debt/(cash) |
(2.87) |
10.60 |
N/A |
Source: eServGlobal. Note: *Six-month period ended 30 April 2017.
eServGlobal reported performance for H118 in line with its recent trading update. H118 revenues were marginally lower than the comparative period a year ago (the year end recently changed to 31 December; H117 results relate to the six-month period ended 30 April 2017) but the loss at the normalised EBITDA level was much lower, reflecting the restructuring the company has undertaken. The company’s share of the HomeSend joint venture’s losses totalled A$2.6m in H118, compared to A$1.9m in H117. eServGlobal’s reported net loss also reduced substantially compared to a year ago.
Net cash at the end of H118 stood at A$2.9m, down from A$10.8m at the end of FY17. As well as the EBITDA loss of $1.4m, the company capitalised development costs of A$1.4m during H118. The remainder of cash was used for working capital purposes, including payments relating to restructuring that were previously provided for and fees related to preparations the company is making to sell the core business.
The company noted that there remains interest in the core business from potential acquirers and conversations are ongoing.
Outlook and changes to forecasts
Orders received in H118 totalled €7.7m/A$12.0m, of which only €1.2/A$1.9m was recognised as revenue in the half. This provides a good level of backlog going into H218. The company also noted a strong pipeline. It expects to reduce the total cost base (COGs and opex excluding depreciation, amortisation and exceptional items) to €11–11.5m/A$17.4–18.2m for FY18 and to reduce it further in FY19. This is down from previous guidance for FY18 of €12.0–12.5m. We have made minor changes to our income statement forecasts and reflect the higher working capital outflow for the year.
Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts
A$'000 |
FY18e |
FY18e |
Change |
Old |
New |
||
Revenues |
19,000 |
18,978 |
-0.1% |
Gross profit |
6,591 |
6,149 |
-6.7% |
Gross margin |
34.7% |
32.4% |
-2.3% |
Normalised gross profit |
6,591 |
6,149 |
-6.7% |
Normalised gross margin |
34.7% |
32.4% |
-2.3% |
Normalised EBITDA |
(409) |
(277) |
-32.3% |
Normalised EBITDA margin |
(2.2%) |
(1.5%) |
0.7% |
Normalised EBIT |
(3,779) |
(3,647) |
-3.5% |
Normalised EBIT margin |
(19.9%) |
(19.2%) |
0.7% |
Reported EBIT |
(3,929) |
(4,119) |
4.8% |
Normalised PBT |
(7,241) |
(8,088) |
11.7% |
Reported PBT |
(7,391) |
(8,560) |
15.8% |
Normalised net income |
(7,637) |
(9,420) |
23.3% |
Reported net income |
(7,791) |
(9,958) |
27.8% |
Normalised EPS |
(0.84) |
(1.04) |
23.3% |
Net debt/(cash) |
(7,318) |
(2,467) |
-66.3% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
A$'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2017* |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 October/31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
31,261 |
25,866 |
21,577 |
10,791 |
12,240 |
18,978 |
Cost of Sales |
(13,359) |
(20,608) |
(15,490) |
(13,509) |
(16,729) |
(12,829) |
||
Gross Profit |
17,902 |
5,258 |
6,087 |
(2,718) |
(4,489) |
6,149 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
2,571 |
(10,449) |
(6,982) |
(11,709) |
(15,204) |
(277) |
Operating Profit (before amort acq intang, SBP and except.) |
1,987 |
(12,469) |
(10,039) |
(15,391) |
(19,959) |
(3,647) |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
28,735 |
(12,539) |
(3,533) |
(7,905) |
(8,649) |
(107) |
||
Share-based payments |
(438) |
(54) |
(75) |
(160) |
(297) |
(365) |
||
Operating Profit |
30,284 |
(25,062) |
(13,647) |
(23,456) |
(28,905) |
(4,119) |
||
Income from associate |
(2,275) |
(3,831) |
(4,638) |
(4,478) |
(5,491) |
(4,435) |
||
Net Interest |
(254) |
(1,356) |
(2,861) |
(2,302) |
(2,090) |
(6) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(542) |
(17,656) |
(17,538) |
(22,171) |
(27,540) |
(8,088) |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
27,755 |
(30,249) |
(21,146) |
(30,236) |
(36,486) |
(8,560) |
Tax |
(13,515) |
(2,125) |
(596) |
(592) |
(681) |
(1,198) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(379) |
(14,125) |
(14,030) |
(22,605) |
(28,054) |
(9,220) |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS3) |
14,240 |
(32,374) |
(21,742) |
(30,828) |
(37,167) |
(9,758) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
253.1 |
264.0 |
366.6 |
640.2 |
676.4 |
906.9 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(0.20) |
(5.41) |
(3.88) |
(3.53) |
(4.17) |
(1.04) |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
5.57 |
(12.33) |
(5.98) |
(4.82) |
(5.51) |
(1.10) |
DPS (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
57.3% |
20.3% |
28.2% |
(25.2%) |
(36.7%) |
32.4% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
8.2% |
(40.4%) |
(32.4%) |
(108.5%) |
(124.2%) |
(1.5%) |
||
Operating Margin (before am and except.) (%) |
6.4% |
(48.2%) |
(46.5%) |
(142.6%) |
(163.1%) |
(19.2%) |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
43,431 |
42,928 |
33,274 |
27,567 |
31,373 |
26,458 |
Intangible Assets |
9,011 |
6,939 |
5,598 |
4,411 |
3,856 |
3,356 |
||
Tangible Assets |
3 |
84 |
32 |
136 |
127 |
147 |
||
Other Fixed Assets |
34,417 |
35,905 |
27,644 |
23,020 |
27,390 |
22,955 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
30,761 |
34,895 |
28,240 |
40,361 |
16,499 |
11,783 |
Stock |
|
|
173 |
66 |
72 |
110 |
139 |
139 |
Debtors |
|
|
26,811 |
24,403 |
17,976 |
6,870 |
4,181 |
7,799 |
Cash |
|
|
3,679 |
4,976 |
9,375 |
33,255 |
10,801 |
2,467 |
Other |
|
|
98 |
5,450 |
817 |
126 |
1,378 |
1,378 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(18,033) |
(25,520) |
(14,469) |
(11,812) |
(10,810) |
(10,053) |
Creditors |
(13,010) |
(22,285) |
(14,189) |
(11,812) |
(10,757) |
(10,000) |
||
Taxation & social security |
(2,023) |
(235) |
(280) |
0 |
(53) |
(53) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(865) |
(19,532) |
(12,649) |
(20,392) |
(777) |
(777) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
(16,531) |
(11,759) |
(19,075) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(865) |
(3,001) |
(890) |
(1,317) |
(777) |
(777) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
55,070 |
32,359 |
33,823 |
35,718 |
36,158 |
27,226 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(5,810) |
(12,130) |
(10,712) |
(9,492) |
(12,630) |
(4,652) |
Net Interest |
(271) |
(423) |
(175) |
0 |
(2,735) |
0 |
||
Tax |
2,018 |
(3,148) |
(1,159) |
(719) |
(132) |
(650) |
||
Capex |
(6,403) |
(2,921) |
(1,583) |
(2,351) |
(2,821) |
(2,890) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
5,418 |
0 |
5,133 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
3,964 |
4,365 |
15,929 |
32,007 |
32,286 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(146) |
0 |
0 |
(579) |
(581) |
(142) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,230) |
(14,257) |
7,433 |
18,866 |
13,387 |
(8,334) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(1,909) |
(679) |
14,555 |
2,384 |
2,384 |
(10,801) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
48 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
977 |
(4,690) |
2,302 |
202 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(679) |
14,555 |
2,384 |
(14,180) |
(10,801) |
(2,467) |
Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research. Note: *14 month period ended 31 December
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