Avesco Group |
Coming Together around CT |
Presteigne disposal |
Media |
3 October 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Avesco is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Avesco (AVS) has announced the disposal of Presteigne, its broadcast hire business, for £5.0m in cash on completion. With the sale of Fountain Studios earlier in 2016, the group is now firmly centred on its audio visual (AV) services. Our profit forecasts (and FY16e EPS) are trimmed, although IFRS earnings stay the same, reflecting the tax impact of the deal. The disposal further strengthens AVS’s balance sheet, increasing the potential to invest in the core business. It also reduces earnings volatility between ‘odd’ and ‘even’ years and clarifies the investment proposition, all of which should help further narrow the valuation discount.
Year |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
09/14 |
126.4 |
5.0 |
12.4 |
6.0 |
25.4 |
1.9 |
09/15 |
133.7 |
5.7 |
25.3 |
7.0 |
12.5 |
2.2 |
09/16e |
135.0 |
7.0 |
21.5 |
8.0 |
14.7 |
2.5 |
09/17e |
143.0 |
8.0 |
27.3 |
9.0 |
11.5 |
2.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Presteigne disposal terms and impact
Presteigne was reported in the AVS accounts as Broadcast Services, representing just under 5% of FY15 revenues. Loss making in that year, reflecting generally competitive and commodity markets and a particular client issue, it had made good progress in FY16 benefiting from coverage of the Rio Olympics and Formula One. Its business and assets are being sold to management (backed by NVM Private Equity LLP) for £5.0m (NBV of £6.4m). Profit forecasts, which had recently been upgraded (see our update note of 2 September), are trimmed, with our FY16e pre-tax forecast moving from £7.6m to £7.0m and FY17e from £8.4m to £8.0m. EPS (normalised) move from 24.6p to 21.5p for FY16e, but are unchanged for FY17e (as are IFRS EPS for both years), reflecting the tax implications of the sale.
Centring on audio visual
The post-disposal Avesco will be solely focused on AV. The two remaining businesses are Creative Technology, a leading international supplier of specialist audio visual services and equipment to the live events, broadcast and entertainment industries, and the significantly smaller mclcreate, which offers full technical support for music, conferences, sports, corporate events and TV. The group will now have better visibility and be more straight-forward to model, with a less volatile financial performance and clearer investment priorities.
Valuation: Discount narrowing
Avesco’s share price has traded in a range of 200-235p since the beginning of the year, before breaking out on the positive trading news in early September. However, the valuation remains at a clear discount to other media and events stocks. Avesco is currently trading on an EV/EBIT of 7.2x in FY16e and 6.4x in FY17e, compared with 13.5x and 10.9x respectively for peers (EV/EBIT being a more relevant metric given the structurally higher depreciation on hire equipment). With the more consistent trading model and clearer investment story, there is good scope for this discount to narrow further.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 30 September |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
124,033 |
126,391 |
133,674 |
135,000 |
143,000 |
||
Cost of sales |
(80,408) |
(80,186) |
(83,035) |
(83,700) |
(88,660) |
||
Gross profit |
43,625 |
46,205 |
50,639 |
51,300 |
54,340 |
||
EBITDA |
18,943 |
24,968 |
26,955 |
24,150 |
24,750 |
||
Depreciation and software amortisation |
(18,432) |
(18,715) |
(19,598) |
(15,850) |
(15,750) |
||
Trading profit (before exceptional items) |
511 |
6,253 |
7,357 |
8,300 |
9,000 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangible assets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptional items |
(8,861) |
(5,385) |
(2,499) |
8,700 |
0 |
||
Operating profit |
(8,350) |
868 |
4,858 |
17,000 |
9,000 |
||
Net Interest |
(1,529) |
(1,298) |
(1,650) |
(1,300) |
(1,000) |
||
Profit before tax (norm) |
(1,018) |
4,955 |
5,707 |
7,000 |
8,000 |
||
Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
(9,879) |
(430) |
3,208 |
15,700 |
8,000 |
||
Tax |
(744) |
(2,310) |
(854) |
(2,900) |
(2,800) |
||
Minority interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit on discontinued operations |
45,729 |
1,192 |
1,072 |
600 |
0 |
||
Profit after tax (norm) |
(1,762) |
2,645 |
4,853 |
4,100 |
5,200 |
||
Profit after tax (FRS 3) |
35,106 |
(1,548) |
3,426 |
13,400 |
5,200 |
||
Average number of shares outstanding (m) |
25.8 |
21.4 |
19.2 |
19.1 |
19.1 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
(6.8) |
12.4 |
25.3 |
21.5 |
27.3 |
||
Dividend per share (p) |
5.0 |
6.0 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
35.2 |
36.6 |
37.9 |
38.0 |
38.0 |
||
EBITDA margin (%) |
15.3 |
19.8 |
20.2 |
17.9 |
17.3 |
||
Operating margin (before GW and except) (%) |
0.4 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
6.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed assets |
62,160 |
62,311 |
59,201 |
50,200 |
49,047 |
||
Intangible assets |
311 |
130 |
209 |
229 |
229 |
||
Tangible assets |
56,346 |
57,787 |
54,266 |
45,621 |
44,468 |
||
Other (mainly deferred income tax assets) |
5,503 |
4,394 |
4,726 |
4,350 |
4,350 |
||
Current assets |
67,655 |
33,462 |
40,741 |
40,133 |
41,584 |
||
Stocks |
829 |
596 |
649 |
688 |
751 |
||
Debtors |
23,114 |
23,801 |
25,860 |
26,807 |
28,396 |
||
Cash |
43,699 |
9,065 |
12,749 |
12,638 |
12,438 |
||
Other |
13 |
0 |
1,483 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current liabilities |
(38,607) |
(33,259) |
(35,592) |
(26,936) |
(25,736) |
||
Creditors |
(30,712) |
(25,357) |
(27,247) |
(21,936) |
(23,236) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
(7,895) |
(7,902) |
(8,345) |
(5,000) |
(2,500) |
||
Long-term liabilities |
(18,009) |
(30,371) |
(29,931) |
(13,500) |
(10,000) |
||
Long-term borrowings |
(13,467) |
(22,602) |
(21,866) |
(7,500) |
(7,000) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(4,542) |
(7,769) |
(8,065) |
(6,000) |
(3,000) |
||
Net assets |
73,199 |
32,143 |
34,419 |
49,897 |
54,895 |
||
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating cash flow |
17,098 |
16,415 |
26,292 |
24,500 |
25,400 |
||
Net interest |
(1,604) |
(1,224) |
(1,634) |
(1,300) |
(1,000) |
||
Tax |
(1,157) |
(1,268) |
(2,942) |
(2,300) |
(5,100) |
||
Capex (net) |
(15,766) |
(19,042) |
(15,975) |
(15,000) |
(15,000) |
||
Net acqs/ Disney payout FY13/ Fountain disposal + non-trading items FY16 |
49,818 |
0 |
634 |
13,000 |
0 |
||
Share buy-back/redemption |
0 |
(21,861) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,032) |
(17,468) |
(1,474) |
(1,300) |
(1,500) |
||
Net cash flow |
47,357 |
(44,448) |
4,901 |
17,600 |
2,800 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
24,765 |
(22,337) |
21,439 |
17,462 |
(138) |
||
Other (inc currency) |
(255) |
672 |
(924) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
(22,337) |
21,439 |
17,462 |
(138) |
(2,938) |
||
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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