Cranswick’s H121 results underscore the company’s strength and broad-based positive momentum. Revenues were up an impressive 17% on a like-for-like basis, adjusted operating profit was up 31% to £62m with margins up +50bp, and adjusted EPS was up 30% to 93p, with reported EPS up 12%. The interim dividend was up 12% to 18.7p, and net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities) was £54.6m. Cranswick has made a strong start to the year. Management is understandably cautious given uncertainty surrounding both the pandemic and Brexit, but the outlook for the current year remains unchanged.
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Cranswick |
Another strong performance
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Consumer |
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25 November 2020 |
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Cranswick’s H121 results underscore the company’s strength and broad-based positive momentum. Revenues were up an impressive 17% on a like-for-like basis, adjusted operating profit was up 31% to £62m with margins up +50bp, and adjusted EPS was up 30% to 93p, with reported EPS up 12%. The interim dividend was up 12% to 18.7p, and net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities) was £54.6m. Cranswick has made a strong start to the year. Management is understandably cautious given uncertainty surrounding both the pandemic and Brexit, but the outlook for the current year remains unchanged.
Robust demand continues
The strong demand across all categories reflects the shift to at-home consumption. Cranswick has demonstrated its agility by adapting to the changing consumer landscape and seizing growth opportunities in its categories. On-the-go consumption continued to be affected by lockdown measures, hence ready-to-eat poultry sales were down as the out of home packed lunch occasion suffered, but traditional categories performed strongly, and continental meats also did well. Among Cranswick’s customers, the top four retailers were well-positioned, while the discounters continued to grow albeit witnessing a slight reduction in market share.
Capex guidance raised
The new Eye poultry facility made a strong contribution to growth, and there is additional investment to expand it further and enhance its capability. Moreover, there will be significant expansion in cooked bacon, with a £20m investment in a new facility in Hull, which will also serve the food service market and is expected to be completed in Q4. Capex guidance has thus been lifted from £70m to £90m for FY21.
Valuation: In line with peers
Trading on a consensus FY21e P/E of 20.6x, Cranswick is valued broadly in line with its meat processing and food manufacturing peer group. Both COVID-19 and Brexit continue to cause uncertainty: Brexit negotiations are ongoing, and it is hard to assess its impact until full details are known. As lockdown restrictions are eased, consumer patterns may take a while to return to normal, hence requiring companies to remain agile. Cranswick is well-placed, as over the years its management has demonstrated its ability to remain relevant and to offer superior products at a lower cost.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Refinitiv |
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Research: Real Estate
Palace Capital’s (PCA) H121 performance was robust and ahead of our central expectations. We have slightly increased FY21 earnings forecasts and introduced FY22–23 estimates, with growth driven by Hudson Quarter completion, on track for March 2021. Significant additional reversionary potential and development/refurbishment represent significant value creation potential.