CentralNic Group — Another quarter of record growth

CentralNic Group (AIM: CNIC)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 02/02/2023

GBP1.46

3.50 (2.46%)

Market capitalisation

GBP406m

Research: TMT

CentralNic Group — Another quarter of record growth

CentralNic continues to benefit from advertisers looking for privacy-safe marketing solutions, with 66% organic revenue growth for the last 12 months (LTM) to Q322 (LTM to Q222: 62%). Management anticipates 9M22 gross revenue of at least US$525m, net revenue of US$127m (a 24.2% margin) and adjusted EBITDA of at least US$61m (an 11.6% margin). Management expects CentralNic to materially exceed current market expectations for FY22, ahead of Q4, which is typically the strongest advertising quarter. We have therefore revised our FY22 revenue estimate upwards by 9% to US$702m, with adjusted EBITDA of US$81m, an 11.5% margin. Despite CentralNic’s continuing momentum, the group trades on FY22e multiples of 5.9x EV/EBITDA and 7.7x P/E.

Richard Williamson

Written by

Richard Williamson

Director, TMT

TMT

CentralNic Group

Another quarter of record growth

9M22 trading update

Software and comp services

18 October 2022

Price

130p

Market cap

£365m

US$1.14/£

Net debt (US$m) at 30 September 2022

63

Voting shares in issue

280.9m

Free float

73%

Code

CNIC

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

8.3

14.5

14.1

Rel (local)

13.9

19.3

24.4

52-week high/low

149.9p

111.0p

Business description

CentralNic Group provides the essential tools for businesses to go online, operating through two divisions: online presence (reseller, corporate and SME); and online marketing. Services include domain name reselling, hosting, website building, security certification and website monetisation.

Next events

Q322 results

22 November 2022

FY22 trading update

January 2023

Analysts

Richard Williamson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

CentralNic Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

CentralNic continues to benefit from advertisers looking for privacy-safe marketing solutions, with 66% organic revenue growth for the last 12 months (LTM) to Q322 (LTM to Q222: 62%). Management anticipates 9M22 gross revenue of at least US$525m, net revenue of US$127m (a 24.2% margin) and adjusted EBITDA of at least US$61m (an 11.6% margin). Management expects CentralNic to materially exceed current market expectations for FY22, ahead of Q4, which is typically the strongest advertising quarter. We have therefore revised our FY22 revenue estimate upwards by 9% to US$702m, with adjusted EBITDA of US$81m, an 11.5% margin. Despite CentralNic’s continuing momentum, the group trades on FY22e multiples of 5.9x EV/EBITDA and 7.7x P/E.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

Adjusted
EBITDA* (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

12/20

240.0

29.4

18.6

10.0

0.0

14.8

12/21

410.5

46.3

31.9

11.8

0.0

12.5

12/22e**

701.9

81.0

65.0

19.2

0.0

7.7

12/23e**

804.8

92.4

77.8

20.8

0.0

7.1

Note: *Excludes impact of share-based payments, share option expenses, foreign exchange charges and non-core operating costs. **FY22e and FY23e EPS figures reflect 280.9m voting shares in issue.

New extended $250m debt facilities

Net debt at 30 September 2022 was stable at $63m ($64m at 30 June 2022), despite the acquisition of Aporia ($11m). Adjusted operating cash conversion remained at c 100%. CentralNic also announced $250m of new debt facilities with an initial four-year term, extendable to five years, comprising a $150m term loan and a $100m revolving credit facility (RCF). The term loan will refinance the existing €126m senior secured bonds as well as the group’s existing RCF. The extended facilities also offer increased capacity for M&A. Borrowing costs on the new facilities will vary with net leverage, up to a maximum permitted leverage of 3.0x. Initial costs will be 2.75% above (SOFR) (c 2.8%), which would deliver an approximate $3.6m fall in annual borrowing costs over the bond financing.

Estimates revised upwards

Management expects CentralNic to materially exceed current market expectations for FY22. As such, we are revising our estimates upwards. Were CentralNic to replicate its Q322 performance ($190m gross revenue, $22m adjusted EBITDA) in Q422, we would anticipate FY22 gross revenue of c $715m. To retain a degree of caution, we have taken a pro forma approach to estimate FY22 gross revenue of $702m. We have raised FY22 net revenues by 2% to $180m, with adjusted EBITDA up 9% to $81m. Our FY23 assumptions remain unchanged, leading to gross revenue of $805m based on 10% growth on year end run-rate.

Valuation: More growth at a compelling price

Despite the naysayers, CentralNic continues to deliver compelling growth, together with a sticky customer base, high recurring revenues and adjusted cash conversion of over 100%. Our latest estimates imply 71% y-o-y revenue growth for FY22 (on top of a five-year revenue CAGR of 72%), with the shares trading on 7.7x FY22 P/E and 5.9x EV/adjusted EBITDA. Comparators will become more challenging, but CentralNic offers a resilient blend of growth at a reasonable price.

Estimate revisions

The full impact of our estimate revisions is set out in Exhibit 1 below.

Exhibit 1: Estimate revisions – new versus old estimates

Year end 31 December

Actual

Old

New

y-o-y

Old

New

y-o-y

US$'000

2021

2022e

2022e

Change

growth

2023e

2023e

Change

growth

Income statement

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

(%)

(%)

IFRS

IFRS

(%)

(%)

Gross revenue

410,540

642,289

701,931

9

71

736,403

804,783

9

15

Net revenue

118,499

176,460

179,938

2

52

196,008

199,958

2

11

Adjusted EBITDA

46,251

74,113

80,972

9

75

84,714

92,440

9

14

Profit before tax (normalised)

31,939

58,658

65,006

11

104

70,693

77,835

10

20

Profit before tax (reported)

1,555

21,618

27,933

 

 

35,335

42,405

 

 

Net income (normalised)

26,842

46,927

52,005

11

94

53,020

58,377

10

12

Basic average number of shares (m)

227

271

271

281

281

EPS – basic normalised (c)

11.80

17.30

19.18

11

62

18.87

20.78

10

8

EPS – diluted normalised (c)

10.69

16.13

17.87

11

67

17.63

19.42

10

9

Revenue growth (%)

71.0

56.4

71.0

14.7

14.7

Gross margin (%)

28.9

27.5

25.6

26.6

24.8

Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)

11.3

11.5

11.5

11.5

11.5

Adjusted EBITDA / net revenue (%)

39.0

42.0

45.0

43.2

46.2

Capex

(3,555)

(7,256)

(7,929)

9

123

(8,319)

(9,091)

9

15

Closing net debt/(cash)

81,394

65,601

61,373

(6)

(25)

25,981

17,212

(34)

(72)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

Year end 31 December

US$'000

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

INCOME STATEMENT

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

Gross revenue

 

 

109,194

240,012

410,540

701,931

804,783

Cost of Sales

(66,419)

(164,894)

(292,041)

(521,993)

(604,825)

Net revenue

42,775

75,118

118,499

179,938

199,958

Adj. EBITDA

 

 

17,921

29,394

46,251

80,972

92,440

Normalised operating profit

 

 

16,615

27,310

42,737

74,964

85,552

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(8,299)

(13,747)

(18,291)

(24,118)

(24,925)

Exceptionals

(8,259)

(10,529)

(7,087)

(4,000)

-

Share-based payments

(2,878)

(5,113)

(5,006)

(5,006)

(5,006)

Reported operating profit

(2,821)

(2,079)

12,353

41,840

55,621

Net Interest

(471)

(8,693)

(10,798)

(9,957)

(7,717)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

74

79

-

-

-

Exceptionals

-

-

-

(3,950)

(5,500)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

16,144

18,617

31,939

65,006

77,835

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(6,616)

(11,834)

1,555

27,933

42,405

Reported tax

39

975

(5,097)

(9,884)

(14,850)

Profit After Tax (norm)

16,119

19,592

26,842

52,005

58,377

Profit After Tax (reported)

(6,577)

(10,859)

(3,542)

18,049

27,554

Minority interests

64

-

-

-

-

Net income (normalised)

16,183

19,592

26,842

52,005

58,377

Net income (reported)

(6,513)

(10,859)

(3,542)

18,049

27,554

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

175

197

227

271

281

EPS - basic normalised (c)

 

 

9.24

9.96

11.80

19.18

20.78

EPS - diluted normalised (c)

 

 

8.97

9.57

10.69

17.87

19.42

EPS - basic reported (c)

 

 

(3.72)

(5.52)

(1.56)

6.66

9.81

Dividend (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

155.9

119.8

71.0

71.0

14.7

Gross Margin (%)

39.2

31.3

28.9

25.6

24.8

Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)

16.4

12.2

11.3

11.5

11.5

Adj. EBITDA / Net Revenue (%)

41.9

39.1

39.0

45.0

46.2

Normalised Operating Margin

15.2

11.4

10.4

10.7

10.6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

217,544

270,578

271,830

339,783

326,074

Intangible Assets

206,055

255,716

254,169

324,621

313,187

Tangible and Right-of-use Assets

6,427

8,677

8,601

6,103

4,266

Investments & other

5,062

6,185

9,060

9,060

8,621

Current Assets

 

 

67,433

77,606

128,391

165,513

211,395

Stocks

491

1,011

895

895

2,616

Debtors

40,760

47,941

71,363

71,363

71,363

Cash & cash equivalents

26,182

28,654

56,133

93,255

137,416

Current Liabilities

 

 

(78,767)

(96,421)

(137,129)

(130,710)

(131,190)

Creditors

(75,683)

(89,256)

(117,016)

(117,016)

(117,016)

Short term borrowings

(3,084)

(7,165)

(13,694)

(13,694)

(14,174)

Other

-

-

(6,419)

-

-

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(129,206)

(137,867)

(149,110)

(172,630)

(172,630)

Long term borrowings

(102,799)

(113,024)

(124,356)

(147,876)

(147,876)

Other long term liabilities

(26,407)

(24,843)

(24,754)

(24,754)

(24,754)

Net Assets

 

 

77,004

113,896

113,982

201,956

233,649

Minority interests

69

-

-

-

-

Shareholders' equity

 

 

77,073

113,896

113,982

201,956

233,649

CASH FLOW

PBT

(6,616)

(11,834)

1,555

27,933

42,405

Depreciation and amortisation

9,605

15,831

21,805

30,126

31,813

Share-based payments

2,878

5,113

5,006

5,006

5,006

Working capital

8,963

4,129

1,503

-

(1,721)

Exceptional & other

3,795

9,413

10,798

9,957

7,717

Tax

(2,309)

(1,957)

(2,230)

(9,884)

(14,850)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

16,316

20,695

38,437

63,138

70,370

Capex

(15,497)

(4,259)

(3,555)

(7,929)

(9,091)

Acquisitions/disposals

(63,840)

(40,718)

(26,482)

(90,150)

(9,400)

Net interest

(1,970)

(9,512)

(8,647)

(9,957)

(7,717)

Equity financing

2,133

34,667

-

58,500

-

Dividends

-

-

-

-

-

Net Cash Flow

(62,858)

873

(247)

13,602

44,162

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

2,115

74,998

84,985

81,394

61,373

FX

(6,730)

1,117

(2,718)

-

-

Other non-cash movements

(3,295)

(11,977)

6,556

6,419

-

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

74,998

84,985

81,394

61,373

17,212

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by CentralNic Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by CentralNic Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for ‘wholesale clients’ within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are ‘wholesale clients’ for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a ‘personalised service’ and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a ‘class service’ provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the ‘FPO’) (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the ‘publishers' exclusion’ from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by CentralNic Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by CentralNic Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for ‘wholesale clients’ within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are ‘wholesale clients’ for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a ‘personalised service’ and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a ‘class service’ provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the ‘FPO’) (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the ‘publishers' exclusion’ from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Alkane Resources — A strong opening

Alkane’s Q123 operational results, announced today, were notably ahead of our forecasts, driven by both mill throughput (which operated at an elevated rate equivalent to 1.08Mtpa) and head grade (which, at 2.75g/t, was materially ahead of our expectations) to result in gold production for the quarter of 19,489oz (cf guidance for FY23 of 55-60koz). Given these results, our forecasts are under review.

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