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Research: Industrials
Management’s unchanged guidance and ongoing focus on debt reduction were the financial headlines for Renewi at the halfway point of FY20. Continued progress in the company’s largest division plus ATM appearing to be closer to resolving soil remediation issues are the two key pre-close messages, in our view. Other divisions are also performing in line with management expectations. Valuation multiples remain low in conventional terms with earnings and dividend growth expected to resume in FY21 on our estimates.
Written by
Renewi |
All divisions on track |
H120 pre close update |
Industrial support services |
2 October 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Renewi is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Management’s unchanged guidance and ongoing focus on debt reduction were the financial headlines for Renewi at the halfway point of FY20. Continued progress in the company’s largest division plus ATM appearing to be closer to resolving soil remediation issues are the two key pre-close messages, in our view. Other divisions are also performing in line with management expectations. Valuation multiples remain low in conventional terms with earnings and dividend growth expected to resume in FY21 on our estimates.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/18 |
1,760.3 |
63.0 |
5.9 |
3.5 |
6.2 |
9.5 |
03/19 |
1,780.7 |
63.1 |
6.0 |
1.7 |
6.1 |
4.6 |
03/20e |
1,703.5 |
47.4 |
4.5 |
1.7 |
8.2 |
4.6 |
03/21e |
1,758.3 |
69.0 |
6.5 |
2.7 |
5.6 |
7.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding pension net finance costs, amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. Estimates are for continuing businesses only.
Adapting and responding to market challenges
The end H120 update reiterated the AGM message regarding ongoing progress in the Commercial division sustained by firmer pricing and synergy benefits. There are likely to be general market effects from trading difficulties at AEB in the Netherlands (most obviously, reduced incinerator capacity and reduced refuse derived fuel or RDF intake) as the supply chain adjusts. Renewi’s contractual positions and other mitigating actions taken lead management to believe that there will be little impact on the company during FY20.
Encouragingly, ATM appears to be clearing soil testing hurdles to satisfy the regulator in Holland and a re-opening of the market is expected although no firm date is provided. Additionally, ATM has developed potential markets for separated/graded soil components sufficiently to invest in processing capacity in this area; once certified, these products will aid diversification in end market application and revenue generation for the company.
Apart from a new service agreement at Derby, no further detailed comments were made on UK Municipal or Monostreams, which are performing in line with board expectations. This perhaps indicates greater stability in these two divisions following portfolio adjustments and some management changes, respectively.
Other corporate activities, ie green financing initiatives and business disposals, are as previously reported save for confirmation that the Canadian Municipal disposal completed and the initial C$82m/c €55m proceeds were received prior to the period end.
Valuation: Single-digit multiples, c 5% dividend yield
Renewi’s share price is broadly flat year-to-date and yet to regain the year high of 37p seen just prior to the FY19 results announcement in May. On our unchanged estimates, the company’s P/E and EV/EBITDA (adjusted for pensions cash) compress to 5.2x and 3.8x respectively by FY22 with a prospective FY20 dividend yield of 4.6%.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
m |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
2022e |
||||
Year end 31 March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
Sterling |
Sterling |
Sterling |
Sterling |
Sterling |
Sterling |
Sterling |
Euros |
Euros |
Euros |
Euros |
Euros |
||
Revenue |
|
|
750.1 |
614.6 |
633.4 |
601.4 |
614.8 |
779.2 |
1,565.7 |
1,760.3 |
1,780.7 |
1,703.5 |
1,758.3 |
1,793.1 |
||
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(622.9) |
(511.6) |
(528.3) |
(506.1) |
(517.8) |
(653.3) |
(1,276.9) |
(1,419.2) |
(1,470.4) |
(1,395.2) |
(1,440.0) |
(1,468.5) |
||
Gross Profit |
|
|
127.2 |
103.0 |
105.1 |
95.3 |
97.0 |
125.9 |
288.8 |
341.1 |
310.3 |
308.3 |
318.3 |
324.6 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
105.0 |
88.4 |
88.5 |
72.6 |
69.2 |
81.6 |
156.9 |
176.3 |
179.7 |
164.4 |
183.8 |
190.3 |
||
Optg Profit (before GW and except.) |
53.4 |
44.9 |
45.6 |
34.3 |
33.4 |
36.5 |
69.1 |
82.5 |
85.5 |
75.2 |
93.1 |
98.1 |
||||
Net Interest |
|
|
(10.8) |
(10.8) |
(12.6) |
(11.4) |
(11.2) |
(10.3) |
(14.2) |
(15.0) |
(14.4) |
(18.8) |
(15.0) |
(14.5) |
||
Other Finance |
|
|
(6.4) |
(3.9) |
(2.9) |
(1.5) |
(1.6) |
(2.2) |
(5.1) |
(7.1) |
(8.4) |
(9.0) |
(9.0) |
(9.0) |
||
JV/Associates |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(3.7) |
(2.5) |
(2.3) |
(1.9) |
(1.8) |
(2.1) |
(5.8) |
(6.7) |
(6.4) |
(6.4) |
(6.4) |
(6.4) |
||
Non Trading & Exceptionals |
|
(2.9) |
(37.8) |
(20.2) |
(40.3) |
(21.8) |
(85.0) |
(95.7) |
(108.4) |
(145.1) |
(65.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||
Profit Before Tax (Edison norm) |
|
36.3 |
30.5 |
30.4 |
22.2 |
21.6 |
26.0 |
52.1 |
63.0 |
63.1 |
47.4 |
69.0 |
74.6 |
|||
Pension net finance costs |
|
|
0.2 |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.3) |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.6) |
||
Profit Before Tax (Renewi norm) |
|
36.5 |
30.2 |
30.1 |
21.7 |
21.1 |
25.7 |
51.5 |
63.0 |
63.1 |
47.4 |
69.0 |
74.0 |
|||
Profit Before Tax (statutory) |
|
29.9 |
(10.1) |
7.6 |
(20.5) |
(2.5) |
(61.4) |
(50.0) |
(52.8) |
(89.0) |
(24.6) |
62.0 |
67.6 |
|||
Tax - headline |
|
|
(4.2) |
(1.1) |
(5.8) |
2.3 |
(1.5) |
0.5 |
2.6 |
1.4 |
12.4 |
(11.6) |
(16.6) |
(17.9) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
26.6 |
22.8 |
23.2 |
20.5 |
19.3 |
20.1 |
39.1 |
47.2 |
47.5 |
35.8 |
52.5 |
56.7 |
||
Profit After Tax |
|
|
25.7 |
(11.2) |
1.8 |
(18.2) |
(4.0) |
(60.9) |
(47.4) |
(51.5) |
(76.6) |
(36.2) |
45.5 |
49.7 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
448.0 |
448.3 |
448.9 |
449.1 |
449.5 |
536.3 |
799.9 |
799.9 |
796.7 |
796.7 |
796.7 |
796.7 |
||||
EPS - Edison norm (p/c) FD |
|
5.9 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
7.1 |
|||
EPS - Renewi norm (p/c) FD |
|
6.0 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
|||
EPS - (p/c) |
|
|
5.7 |
(7.9) |
(6.3) |
(3.8) |
(0.9) |
(11.4) |
(5.9) |
(6.8) |
(11.7) |
(4.6) |
5.7 |
6.2 |
||
Dividend per share (p/c) |
|
|
3.05 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
3.46 |
1.68 |
1.68 |
2.73 |
2.90 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
17.0 |
16.8 |
16.6 |
15.9 |
15.8 |
16.2 |
18.4 |
19.4 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
18.1 |
18.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
14.0 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
12.1 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.1 |
9.7 |
10.5 |
10.6 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
7.1 |
7.3 |
7.2 |
5.7 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
751.6 |
772.1 |
744.4 |
737.3 |
670.4 |
1,420.9 |
1,456.3 |
1,669.2 |
1,439.6 |
1,385.1 |
1,393.8 |
1,401.0 |
||
Intangible Assets |
|
|
271.4 |
251.8 |
211.1 |
173.8 |
194.5 |
603.3 |
606.3 |
699.3 |
605.6 |
573.9 |
562.9 |
551.9 |
||
Tangible Assets |
|
|
390.9 |
375.3 |
322.7 |
282.9 |
297.0 |
587.4 |
623.0 |
710.8 |
629.1 |
606.3 |
626.0 |
644.2 |
||
Investments |
|
|
89.3 |
145.0 |
210.6 |
280.6 |
178.9 |
230.2 |
227.0 |
259.1 |
204.9 |
204.9 |
204.9 |
204.9 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
233.6 |
247.3 |
265.1 |
224.0 |
177.0 |
348.2 |
366.2 |
418.0 |
533.3 |
415.8 |
436.6 |
443.3 |
||
Stocks |
|
|
10.5 |
11.0 |
9.4 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
19.9 |
23.3 |
26.6 |
26.0 |
24.7 |
25.5 |
26.0 |
||
Debtors |
|
|
163.3 |
160.9 |
151.5 |
156.3 |
135.5 |
253.4 |
279.0 |
318.4 |
456.9 |
340.7 |
346.9 |
351.2 |
||
Cash |
|
|
59.8 |
75.4 |
104.2 |
60.8 |
34.7 |
74.9 |
63.9 |
73.0 |
50.4 |
50.4 |
64.3 |
66.1 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(238.7) |
(248.9) |
(229.6) |
(277.4) |
(227.2) |
(483.2) |
(545.8) |
(631.0) |
(758.3) |
(637.2) |
(637.4) |
(618.7) |
||
Creditors |
|
|
(226.5) |
(230.7) |
(226.3) |
(202.4) |
(224.8) |
(466.8) |
(532.9) |
(616.3) |
(639.6) |
(608.7) |
(608.9) |
(615.2) |
||
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(12.2) |
(18.2) |
(3.3) |
(75.0) |
(2.4) |
(16.4) |
(12.9) |
(14.7) |
(118.7) |
(28.5) |
(28.5) |
(3.5) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(375.9) |
(444.2) |
(504.7) |
(432.5) |
(434.2) |
(845.7) |
(894.3) |
(1,019.9) |
(895.1) |
(894.0) |
(892.8) |
(891.7) |
||
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(253.8) |
(234.5) |
(253.8) |
(140.8) |
(224.9) |
(482.4) |
(489.7) |
(558.9) |
(483.7) |
(483.7) |
(483.7) |
(483.7) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(122.1) |
(209.7) |
(250.9) |
(291.7) |
(209.3) |
(363.3) |
(404.6) |
(461.0) |
(411.4) |
(410.3) |
(409.1) |
(408.0) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
370.6 |
326.3 |
275.2 |
251.4 |
186.0 |
440.2 |
382.4 |
436.3 |
319.5 |
269.8 |
300.3 |
334.0 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
109.9 |
67.7 |
78.6 |
55.8 |
72.2 |
27.9 |
128.4 |
143.6 |
86.8 |
130.2 |
166.3 |
181.0 |
||
Net Interest |
|
|
(13.4) |
(11.5) |
(13.2) |
(12.8) |
(12.8) |
(19.0) |
(16.9) |
(19.1) |
(17.7) |
(18.8) |
(15.0) |
(14.5) |
||
Tax |
|
|
(7.1) |
1.9 |
(1.6) |
(5.7) |
(4.8) |
(5.3) |
(6.7) |
(7.6) |
(13.2) |
(11.6) |
(16.6) |
(17.9) |
||
Net Capex |
|
|
(74.8) |
(50.1) |
(27.1) |
(37.2) |
(25.8) |
(41.2) |
(81.2) |
(92.3) |
(99.4) |
(106.1) |
(105.8) |
(105.8) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(19.6) |
(59.2) |
(54.1) |
(67.3) |
18.2 |
39.5 |
(4.1) |
(4.8) |
22.7 |
106.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity Financing |
|
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
136.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
(2.7) |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
|
|
(13.3) |
(13.7) |
(13.7) |
(13.7) |
(13.7) |
(15.1) |
(24.4) |
(27.6) |
(27.4) |
(13.5) |
(15.0) |
(15.9) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(18.3) |
(64.5) |
(30.9) |
(80.8) |
33.6 |
123.3 |
(4.3) |
(7.3) |
(50.9) |
86.2 |
13.9 |
26.8 |
||
Opening core net debt/(cash) |
|
207.4 |
206.2 |
177.3 |
152.9 |
155.0 |
192.6 |
423.9 |
492.7 |
500.0 |
552.0 |
461.8 |
447.9 |
|||
Finance leases |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
|
|
19.5 |
93.4 |
55.3 |
78.7 |
(71.2) |
(354.6) |
(10.5) |
(0.0) |
(1.1) |
4.0 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
||
Closing core net debt/(cash) |
|
206.2 |
177.3 |
152.9 |
155.0 |
192.6 |
423.9 |
438.7 |
500.0 |
552.0 |
461.8 |
447.9 |
421.1 |
|||
Closing PPP/PFI non-recourse net debt |
52.0 |
100.1 |
151.2 |
222.6 |
91.1 |
87.1 |
82.9 |
94.6 |
95.4 |
95.4 |
95.4 |
95.4 |
||||
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Estimates are for continuing businesses only.
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Research: Consumer
Greggs’ trading continues to be impressive, with better-than-expected like-for-like revenue growth in Q319 of 7.4% (against tougher comparatives) offset by lower-than-expected new space growth. In aggregate, trading is in line with expectations, therefore our forecasts and valuation are unchanged.