Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: Consumer
As expected, the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant declines in out-of-home consumption, which were partly offset by gains in at-home consumption and market share gains. Full year revenue declined 6.8% on a constant currency basis, while adjusted EBIT was down 21.9% at constant currency, and adjusted EPS was down 27.8%. A full year dividend of 21.6p was confirmed, following the decision in H1 to prudently suspend the dividend. Management focused on cash and cost efficiency to mitigate the impact of the pandemic as much as possible. During the period, the company extended its carbonates relationship with Pepsi to 2040. The outlook is understandably cautious, given the uncertainty in terms of further restrictions in Britvic’s main markets. Nevertheless, management has carefully planned its approach, and the agility demonstrated so far should continue to help Britvic navigate the uncertain environment.
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Britvic |
Adapting to the new normal
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Consumer |
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2 December 2020 |
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As expected, the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant declines in out-of-home consumption, which were partly offset by gains in at-home consumption and market share. Full year revenue declined 6.8% on a constant currency basis, while adjusted EBIT was down 21.9% at constant currency, and adjusted EPS was down 27.8%. A full year dividend of 21.6p was confirmed, following the decision in H1 to prudently suspend the dividend. Management focused on cash and cost efficiency to mitigate the impact of the pandemic as much as possible. During the period, the company extended its carbonates relationship with Pepsi to 2040. The outlook is understandably cautious, given the uncertainty in terms of further restrictions in Britvic’s main markets. Nevertheless, management has carefully planned its approach, and the agility demonstrated so far should continue to help Britvic navigate the uncertain environment.
Brazil continues to grow strongly
Brazil witnessed volumes up 13% and revenues up 12.4% in FY20, with strong sales of RTD juices Pure Coco and Fruit Shoot. New pack formats broadened the appeal and affordability of Britvic’s offering, and innovation resulted in successful expansion into new categories. Lockdown restrictions during H2 encouraged a consumer switch to at-home consumption and – coupled with management’s focus on rejuvenating the category – resulted in increased market share.
Adapting to the new normal
Britvic has responded with agility to the pandemic and the changing consumer and customer trends that this has brought. Decisive action was taken early to mitigate the adverse effect of the pandemic on financial performance, and the fact the dividend has been restored demonstrates management’s confidence in the business. The balance sheet, with £520.4m of net debt at end FY20, has enough headroom and liquidity to withstand further restrictions. Extensive modelling has been undertaken and all scenarios indicate headroom on debt covenant tests in FY21, with a peak in H121.
Valuation: Discount should narrow
Britvic trades at a consensus FY21e P/E of 15.5x, a c 50% discount to the UK beverages sector and a c 30% discount to AG Barr, reflecting its geared balance sheet and the fact some of its brands are part-owned by third parties. We believe the discounts should narrow over time as balance sheet leverage falls, though in the shorter term COVID-19 uncertainty remains the biggest risk for the sector.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Refinitiv, company data |
Britvic is a client of Edison Investment Research Limited
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Research: TMT
CentralNic’s Q320 results highlighted that the group is on course to meet management’s FY20 financial expectations, supported by organic growth and underpinned by a successful M&A strategy. Ytd revenue increased by 118% to US$168.5m, driven by contributions from the transformational acquisitions made in H219. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 68% to US$22.1m. On a pro forma basis, the group recorded organic revenue growth of 17% y-o-y, 10% growth in gross profits and 4% growth in adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted net debt stood at US$80.9m (adjusted for the US$36m cash payment for Codewise made in October). The company trades on an FY21 P/E multiple of 13.1x, which appears highly conservative for a group that has delivered a 69% revenue CAGR FY14–19 as it consolidates a globally fragmented market. We maintain our estimates.