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Research: TMT
Ebiquity is set for a stronger H220, after a difficult H1 (£26.8m revenue; down 24% y-o-y) when some clients paused or cancelled their marketing activity due to COVID-19. Most of the H120 £1.4m operating loss should be recouped by the year-end. FY21 prospects are further lifted by new client wins, partly from Accenture’s withdrawal from media audit. Newly installed CEO Nick Waters (ex Dentsu) is developing his vision for Ebiquity as a data-driven media solutions provider, augmented with consultancy services. This will be expounded at a capital markets day on 10 November.
Ebiquity |
Adapting to circumstance and opportunity |
Interim results |
Media |
28 September 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Ebiquity is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Ebiquity is set for a stronger H220, after a difficult H1 (£26.8m revenue; down 24% y-o-y) when some clients paused or cancelled their marketing activity due to COVID-19. Most of the H120 £1.4m operating loss should be recouped by the year-end. FY21 prospects are further lifted by new client wins, partly from Accenture’s withdrawal from media audit. Newly installed CEO Nick Waters (ex Dentsu) is developing his vision for Ebiquity as a data-driven media solutions provider, augmented with consultancy services. This will be expounded at a capital markets day on 10 November.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
69.4 |
5.2 |
3.5 |
0.7 |
6.1 |
3.3 |
12/19 |
68.7 |
5.3 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
6.0 |
N/A |
12/20e |
57.0 |
(0.5) |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21e |
60.0 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
8.3 |
2.3 |
Note: *PBT and diluted EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Improving prospects in H220
Media segment revenues (FY19: 79% of group) were down by 21%. Those of Analytics & Tech were 36% lower, but the underlying decrease here, stripping out Stratigent (wound down from August 2019), was closer to that of Media. Digital Decisions, bought in January this year, has made good progress, adding eight new clients, and looks on track to meet deferred consideration targets. Group underlying operating costs were down 12%, including use of government support schemes. With deferred assignments coming through and some significant new client wins, including Verizon, Daimler and Dubai Tourism, prospects for H220 and FY21 are better. The withdrawal of Accenture from the Media audit market has enabled Ebiquity to expand its client base and further opportunities are being pursued.
Financial headroom
In light of the H120 performance and the company’s indication for improved revenues in H220, we have trimmed our FY20 revenue forecast from £59.5m to £57.0m. Based on this, our pre-tax number moves from a £3.3m profit to a £0.5m loss. The reported underlying H120 loss before tax was £1.9m, so this implies a good H2 recovery, with momentum into FY21, where we introduce our forecasts. No management guidance for FY21e has been issued. These projections assume no further economic disruption. End June net debt was £5.1m, from £5.6m at the year end, assisted by working capital inflow. Net debt had extended to £7.0m by end-August, with cash balances of £12.6m and gross debt of £19.8m (the difference being rounding). £5m of bank facilities remain undrawn, with covenants renegotiated to a simple monthly liquidity test to December 2021.
Valuation: Below peers and DCF
Earnings forecasts remain highly subjective to assumptions on the success of the new CEO’s strategic plans, as well as on general economic recovery. On our current modelling, parity with peers across averaged P/E and EV/EBITDA for FY19 and FY21e suggest a share price of 36p, a little below that derived from a DCF. The upcoming capital markets day (CMD) may be a catalyst to close that discount.
H120 looks to have been the low point
H120 included the months most affected by the effect of COVID-19 on advertising spend, although the impact varied considerably by market sector and by media type, as has been widely reported. Automotive, travel and tourism, and (traditional) retail have suffered the heaviest downwards pressure, with FMCG and tech spend comparatively healthy. A summary of the income statement, in underlying terms, is shown below:
Exhibit 1: Summary underlying income statement
Income statement |
H119 (£m) |
H120 (£m) |
Change (£m) |
% change |
Revenue |
35.3 |
26.8 |
(8.6) |
(24%) |
Operating expenses |
(32.0) |
(28.1) |
(3.8) |
(12%) |
Operating (loss)/profit |
3.4 |
(1.4) |
(4.7) |
|
Operating margin |
9.5% |
(5.1%) |
||
Finance costs |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
0.1 |
16% |
(Loss)/profit before tax |
2.9 |
(1.9) |
(4.8) |
|
Underlying (loss)/EPS (p) |
2.6 |
(2.7) |
(5.4) |
Source: Company accounts
As the pandemic spread, Ebiquity transitioned its team to remote working with minimal disruption, utilising government support schemes where appropriate, and pay and hiring freezes to help control costs. Central overheads of £3.0m compared to £4.0m in the prior period, with total operating costs trimmed from £32.0m in H119 to £28.1m. This helped to partly offset a 24% y-o-y reduction in revenues to £26.8m. Although the company has swung into losses in the first half, on our updated estimates, we expect the H120 £1.4m operating loss to be recouped by the year-end on the back of the improving top line performance, as indicated by management.
Exhibit 2: Working forecast assumptions
Previous FY20 assumption |
H120 actual |
Revised FY20 assumption |
FY21e assumption |
|
Media revenue growth |
-17% |
-21% |
-17% |
5% |
Analytics & Tech revenue growth |
-10% |
-36% |
-17% |
5% |
Operating margin: |
|
|||
Media |
20.8% |
10.7% |
15.5% |
20.2% |
A&T |
8.5% |
-14.8% |
-1.5% |
7.0% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
The balance sheet at end June showed net debt of £5.1m (excluding leases), from £5.6m at the previous year-end. This was made up from £14.5m of cash, with £19.0m of bank debt and a £0.8m US payment protection programme loan, which is expected to convert into a grant. There remains £5.0m undrawn within the Revolving Credit Facility. The group has agreed modified covenants on this RCF that run through to December 2021. These involve a monthly liquidity test, requiring a minimum of £5.0m (in cash plus any undrawn facility) to be available at the end of each month.
Media revenues set to lift through H2
The results from the Media segment are themselves a blend of the audit practice (Ebiquity Performance and Management) and the contract compliance practice (FirmDecisions).
The former delivered revenues that declined 19% on prior year, although this also varied considerably by region. It has picked up substantial new business from Accenture’s withdrawal from media auditing, with the team in Spain doing particularly well on this front. Along with projects deferred from H120, this gives a strong underpinning to a rebound in H220.
Within Media, Contract Compliance (c10% of Media revenues), which has historically involved physical examination of records, has now reached agreement with agencies on remote access to information required for its audits. This should enable the backlog to be tackled, with deferred projects set to proceed or already in action benefiting H220. Revenue from this practice was down 42% in the period. Clients in the period included Amazon and Dubai Tourism.
Digital Decisions, bought in January (see Edison’s Flash note), has put in an encouraging performance, winning eight clients, and looks likely to hit its targets. Its dashboards and analyses are central to Ebiquity’s plans to build out its digital service and product offerings.
As shown above, our model assumes a lower rate of year-on-year decline in H220 as the deferred work comes through and work for new clients builds through H220 and into FY21. We have made provisional assumptions that this results in a 10% revenue uplift in FY21e, with a recovery in operating margin, as shown.
Analytics & Tech more affected than expected
As highlighted by the exhibit above, the Analytics & Tech segment had a tougher period than might have been expected, given that it had previously been the higher growth segment, but much of this is down to its sector vertical exposure, particularly to the automotive industry. Major projects were deferred or cancelled by some of its largest clients in the airline, retail and automotive sectors. The year-on-year revenue comparison is also disadvantaged by the inclusion of Stratigent in H119, without which the decline would have been closer to that posted by Media. The Advanced Analytics practice was down by just 4%, while AdTech retrenched 41%. MarTech was down by 81%, but only by 41% if Stratigent is excluded. MarTech now solely consists of Digital Balance in Australia (but working globally). AdTech assists in evaluating in-housing decisions and the selection of advertising partners. Delays to large client purchase approvals, due to COVID-19, held the AdTech practice back in H120. New client wins in the US and Italy should help through the rest of the year and into FY21.
Our model assumes that Analytics & Tech revenue growth is roughly in line with that of Media in FY21 and that margins start to recover.
First thoughts from new CEO
Nick Waters, previously executive chairman of Dentsu in the UK and Ireland, has been in place since 1 July. In conversations with key clients he has confirmed that one of Ebiquity’s key strengths is its independence. Its advice is not compromised by the incentive of selling other products or services. Competitors tend to be either the large global consultants, such a PWC or Deloitte, which have a shallower understanding of the advertising industry and potential conflicts such as that acknowledged by Accenture, or local market specialists, which may lack the global perspective and the data that supports Ebiquity’s advice.
While more detailed plans will be presented at the planned CMD in November, Waters has already established that the group needs:
■
To be evolved into a data-driven solutions company, with an overlay of consultancy services.
■
To develop scalable, repeatable productised solutions in Programmatic, search, social and ecommerce.
■
To build on the approach established by Digital Decisions, with source data monitoring on a scalable and repeatable basis.
None of this needs to involve heavy technology investment, but Ebiquity does need to move from offering services on a point solution basis to delivering integrated solutions, more embedded in client workflows.
As digital continues to grow as a percentage of advertising spend, advertisers’ concerns with issues of ad fraud, viewability, wastage and brand safety will only grow. A trusted and independent partner to help navigate and drive return on investment will be of even greater value.
Valuation
With earnings forecasts for the current year across the sector so heavily affected by the commercial repercussions of the pandemic, the more potentially reliable metrics are those relating to FY19 and FY21e, although the latter remain very subjective to assumptions on the speed and scale of recovery. Parity with peers, averaged across P/E and EV/EBITDA for those two years, implies a share price of 36p, well ahead of current levels.
Exhibit 3: Peer comparative ratings
Name |
Price (p) |
Market cap (£m) |
Ytd perf (%) |
P/E last |
P/E 1FY |
P/E 2FY |
EV/sales 1FY (x) |
EV/EBITDA last (x) |
EV/EBITDA 1FY (x) |
EV/EBITDA 2FY (x) |
Kin and Carta |
66.3 |
112 |
-33.4 |
7.2 |
12.4 |
10.9 |
1.2 |
7.7 |
8.5 |
7.9 |
M&C Saatchi |
63.3 |
73 |
-49.0 |
2.7 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
0.4 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
The MISSION Group |
57.5 |
52 |
-27.2 |
6.4 |
143.8 |
7.4 |
1.1 |
4.3 |
27.0 |
6.1 |
Next Fifteen |
476.0 |
432 |
-11.5 |
13.7 |
13.8 |
12.2 |
1.9 |
8.7 |
9.0 |
8.1 |
Average |
-30.3 |
7.5 |
43.9 |
9.0 |
1.2 |
6.0 |
12.0 |
6.3 |
||
Ebiquity |
23.1 |
19 |
-37.3 |
6.5 |
(37.2) |
9.0 |
0.4 |
2.8 |
14.2 |
4.7 |
Discount |
14% |
N/A |
0% |
61% |
53% |
-19% |
25% |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 24 September 2020.
As previously, we have looked at the DCF at varying margin assumptions and at varying revenue growth rates across FY22–28e, on fixed assumptions of an 8.5% WACC and terminal growth of 2%. An EBITDA margin of 12%, below the 13.4% achieved in FY19, derives an implied share price of 37p, on flat revenues through FY22-28e. Lifting the medium-term revenue assumption to the average global ad spend revenue growth since 2000, 3.4%, lifts the implied valuation to 43p, ahead of the level derived from parity with peers, above.
A successful implementation of the new CEO’s strategy could lead to faster growth in revenues as the group builds market share, particularly in digital media-related services. It could also deliver margin expansion, which would suggest an upside risk to our current valuation.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
£000s |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
31-Dec |
31-Dec |
31-Dec |
31-Dec |
31-Dec |
||
Revenue |
|
|
64,228 |
69,368 |
68,733 |
57,000 |
60,000 |
EBITDA |
|
|
10,840 |
7,761 |
9,203 |
1,801 |
5,432 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
8,992 |
6,342 |
6,167 |
375 |
4,006 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1,231) |
(1,240) |
(1,169) |
(1,112) |
(1,112) |
||
Exceptionals |
(3,405) |
(6,233) |
(9,044) |
(914) |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(578) |
(223) |
(117) |
1,651 |
(150) |
||
Reported operating profit |
3,778 |
(1,354) |
(4,163) |
(0) |
2,744 |
||
Net Interest |
(1,044) |
(1,151) |
(898) |
(875) |
(925) |
||
Joint-ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7,948 |
5,191 |
5,269 |
(500) |
3,081 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
2,734 |
(2,504) |
(5,061) |
(875) |
1,819 |
Reported tax |
(1,753) |
(1,985) |
(1,931) |
130 |
(739) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
5,531 |
3,413 |
3,338 |
(370) |
2,341 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
981 |
(4,489) |
(6,538) |
(745) |
1,079 |
||
Minority interests |
(384) |
(489) |
(451) |
(250) |
(250) |
||
Discontinued operations |
1,467 |
(845) |
(1,018) |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
4,951 |
3,551 |
2,875 |
(619) |
2,093 |
||
Net income (reported) |
2,064 |
(5,334) |
(7,556) |
(995) |
829 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
77.9 |
78.6 |
79.5 |
79.5 |
80.2 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
6.4 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
(0.8) |
2.6 |
EPS - normalised continuing diluted (p) |
|
|
6.2 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
(0.8) |
2.6 |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
2.7 |
(7.4) |
(10.1) |
(1.3) |
1.0 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.71 |
0.71 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.50 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
16.9 |
11.2 |
13.4 |
3.2 |
9.1 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
14.0 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
0.7 |
6.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
75,771 |
45,400 |
47,060 |
45,743 |
43,861 |
Intangible Assets |
72,440 |
43,251 |
35,172 |
34,931 |
33,793 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,829 |
1,170 |
10,902 |
9,458 |
8,714 |
||
Investments & other |
1,502 |
979 |
986 |
1,354 |
1,354 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
37,241 |
65,935 |
35,822 |
35,023 |
37,010 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
32,509 |
29,408 |
27,586 |
24,205 |
25,479 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
4,732 |
8,793 |
8,236 |
10,818 |
11,530 |
||
Other |
0 |
27,734 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(24,549) |
(27,539) |
(21,195) |
(19,044) |
(18,984) |
Creditors |
(20,066) |
(18,150) |
(14,659) |
(12,862) |
(13,068) |
||
Tax and social security |
(1,598) |
(1,681) |
(4,424) |
(3,812) |
(3,812) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1,572) |
(2,314) |
36 |
45 |
45 |
||
Other |
(1,313) |
(5,394) |
(2,148) |
(2,415) |
(2,149) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(35,481) |
(36,282) |
(23,047) |
(28,562) |
(28,119) |
Long term borrowings |
(32,000) |
(33,965) |
(13,868) |
(19,706) |
(19,706) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,481) |
(2,317) |
(9,179) |
(8,856) |
(8,413) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
52,982 |
47,514 |
38,640 |
33,160 |
33,768 |
Minority interests |
1,040 |
992 |
1,179 |
1,179 |
1,179 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
51,942 |
46,522 |
37,461 |
31,981 |
32,589 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
10,840 |
7,761 |
9,203 |
1,801 |
5,432 |
||
Working capital |
(2,002) |
(367) |
(1,302) |
1,710 |
(1,068) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(890) |
(6,233) |
(2,244) |
(914) |
0 |
||
Tax |
(2,207) |
(1,952) |
(1,345) |
(1,870) |
(739) |
||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
5,741 |
(791) |
4,312 |
727 |
3,624 |
Capex |
(2,231) |
(1,784) |
(3,235) |
(814) |
(1,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(3,082) |
(858) |
23,862 |
(3,354) |
(486) |
||
Net interest |
(921) |
(1,068) |
(718) |
(875) |
(925) |
||
Equity financing |
160 |
252 |
253 |
612 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(495) |
(791) |
(1,256) |
(1,315) |
0 |
||
Other |
(46) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(874) |
(5,040) |
23,218 |
(5,019) |
713 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
28,024 |
28,840 |
27,486 |
5,596 |
8,843 |
FX |
58 |
(91) |
(204) |
380 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
6,485 |
(1,124) |
1,392 |
0 |
|||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
28,840 |
27,486 |
5,596 |
8,843 |
8,131 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Research: Healthcare
On 21 September 2020, OSE presented additional data from step one of the Phase III Atalante 1 trial at the virtual ESMO conference. This followed the first announcement in April 2020. The totality of data now points to a favourable benefit/risk ratio of Tedopi treatment in patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after failed checkpoint inhibitor treatment. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, OSE has decided to terminate enrolment into step two of the trial, as NSCLC patients are vulnerable to coronavirus infections and there was therefore a substantial risk of data loss. OSE will focus on regulatory interactions and partnering discussions, given the availability of new data. Our valuation is marginally higher at €240m or €16.0/share (from €15.3).