Ellomay’s Q117 results reflected an improvement in solar radiation levels and higher spot power prices in Italy. Gross profit improved by 37% (Q117 vs Q116) and sequentially by 44% (Q117 vs Q416), although G&A costs increased by 26% as new project costs increased, so operating profit was down 12%. Ellomay continued to invest in the development of new projects in Israel, the Netherlands and Spain, with further newsflow expected on their development over the course of the year. Also of note was the strong cash generation over the quarter. We maintain our earnings forecasts and fair value per share at $10.93, which offers 25% upside to current levels.
Written by
Ellomay Capital |
2017 off to a strong start |
Q1 results |
Alternative energy |
3 July 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Ellomay’s Q117 results reflected an improvement in solar radiation levels and higher spot power prices in Italy. Gross profit improved by 37% (Q117 vs Q116) and sequentially by 44% (Q117 vs Q416), although G&A costs increased by 26% as new project costs increased, so operating profit was down 12%. Ellomay continued to invest in the development of new projects in Israel, the Netherlands and Spain, with further newsflow expected on their development over the course of the year. Also of note was the strong cash generation over the quarter. We maintain our earnings forecasts and fair value per share at $10.93, which offers 25% upside to current levels.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
13.82 |
1.86 |
0.35 |
0.00 |
25.0 |
N/A |
12/16 |
12.87 |
(1.25) |
(0.18) |
0.23 |
N/A |
2.6 |
12/17e |
13.50 |
3.75 |
0.26 |
0.23 |
33.7 |
2.6 |
12/18e |
15.09 |
5.79 |
0.41 |
0.23 |
21.4 |
2.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Encouraging core solar performance…
Solar conditions and Italian spot prices drove Ellomay’s revenues up by 5.6% in the first quarter. Combined with lower operating costs due to municipal tax decreases in Italy, this helped push gross profits up by 37% q-o-q. While we leave our earnings forecasts for Ellomay’s solar operations unchanged, should strong solar and price conditions remain in place and drive a further strong performance in Q2 (results to be reported in September), we would review our earnings at that point.
…while new projects near construction phase
Long-term value for Ellomay shareholders depends on management identifying and executing new projects. Ellomay recently invested in a 9MW solar PV plant in Israel and has an investment in a further potential 300MW solar development in Spain. Several waste-to-energy plants in the Netherlands have progressed furthest, with the Dutch Oude Tonge Project having achieved financial close. For now, Ellomay shareholders suffer from high upfront costs such as the $0.6m associated with Manara Cliff, which helped drive down Q1 operating profits by 12% q-o-q.
Valuation: $10.93 per share and 25% upside
Given the potentially one-off nature of solar conditions and spot Italian power prices, we see no need to alter our earnings forecasts, especially given the relatively small contribution the first quarter makes to group performance for the year. Likewise, we view expenditures relating to new projects, which increased Q1 G&A and decreased operating profits, as exceptional and any such future expenses could be capitalised. The result is that we maintain our fair value of $10.93 per share, which offers equity holders 25% upside to the current price of $8.76.
Q117 shows year off to a solid start
Ellomay’s results for the three months to 31 March 2017 showed a revenue increase in its volatile solar generation business driven by higher radiance levels and spot power prices in Italy. General and administrative costs increased over the period as a function of continued investment in new power and infrastructure assets in Israel, the Netherlands and Spain.
Exhibit 1: Ellomay Q117 vs Q116
US$000s (as reported) |
3M16 |
3M17 |
% y-o-y |
Revenues |
2,546 |
2,688 |
5.6 |
Operating expenses |
(608) |
(537) |
(11.7) |
General and administrative costs |
(1,084) |
(1,361) |
25.6 |
Share of profits (losses) of equity accounted investees |
845 |
835 |
(1.2) |
Reported EBITDA |
1,743 |
1,630 |
(6.5) |
Depreciation |
1,221 |
1,169 |
(4.3) |
Other |
44 |
5 |
(88.6) |
Operating Profit |
522 |
461 |
(11.7) |
Financing income (expenses), net |
(2,682) |
(2,128) |
|
Profit before taxes |
(2,160) |
(1,667) |
(22.8) |
Tax |
53 |
125 |
|
Net loss for the period |
(2,107) |
(1,792) |
(15.0) |
Attributable to owners of the company |
(1,988) |
(1,608) |
(19.1) |
Basic profit per share from continuing operations |
(0.19) |
(0.15) |
(21.1) |
Dividend per share |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
Source: Ellomay Capital
Financials: No changes to earnings, operating cash flow strong
We do not view the higher solar output and higher Italian spot electricity prices witnessed in Q117 as a basis to upgrade our full year forecasts as they could be one-off in nature. However, we will keep a watching brief on solar radiance levels and power prices in the Q2 results, which we expect in September. Further solar generation outperformance could merit an upgrade to our forecasts for the full year. We will also keep an eye on Ellomay’s G&A costs which, at $1.4m for the quarter, came in above the figure of $1.1m reported in Q116. Management attributed the bulk of the increase to $0.6m invested in the planned Manara Cliff pumped storage power generation project in Israel. This compared to a figure of $0.4m in Q116. The rest of the increase was incurred by the use of consultants in relation to the waste-to-energy plants in the Netherlands. Despite slightly lower operating expenses due to tax changes in Italy, the net effect of all these factors was a 6.5% decline in q-o-q EBITDA and an 11.7% drop in q-o-q operating profits. Lower net financing costs helped reduce the net loss for the period to $1.8m versus $2.1m in Q116.
Operating cash flow for the quarter was stronger to the tune of $1.6m due to higher revenue collection in Italy. Also, encouragingly, Ellomay issued $33.7m of debentures at a low interest rate of 3.44% per year. At end March the group had net debt of $34.8m including cash of $58.9m. On 1 June 2017 it reported a cash level of $42m.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
US$000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
13,817 |
12,872 |
13,497 |
15,092 |
EBITDA (company definition) |
|
|
9,685 |
7,492 |
11,249 |
13,042 |
EBITDA (Edison definition, excluding associates) |
7,218 |
5,888 |
8,378 |
9,737 |
||
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
2,306 |
1,004 |
3,340 |
4,692 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
21 |
99 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
3,485 |
704 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
5,812 |
1,807 |
3,340 |
4,692 |
||
Net Interest |
(2,893) |
(3,760) |
(2,465) |
(2,206) |
||
Share of assocs/jvs gains/(losses) |
2,446 |
1,505 |
2,871 |
3,305 |
||
Forex gains/(losses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
1,859 |
(1,251) |
3,746 |
5,791 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
5,365 |
(448) |
3,746 |
5,791 |
Tax |
1,933 |
(625) |
(937) |
(1,448) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,792 |
(1,876) |
2,810 |
4,343 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
7,553 |
(603) |
2,810 |
4,343 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
||
EPS - normalised ($) |
|
|
0.354 |
(0.176) |
0.263 |
0.407 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted ($) |
|
0.352 |
(0.176) |
0.263 |
0.407 |
|
EPS - (IFRS) ($) |
|
|
0.705 |
(0.056) |
0.263 |
0.407 |
Dividend per share ($) |
0.000 |
0.225 |
0.225 |
0.225 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
52.2 |
45.7 |
62.1 |
64.5 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
16.7 |
7.8 |
24.7 |
31.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
126,814 |
120,628 |
118,711 |
117,222 |
Intangible Assets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tangible Assets |
78,975 |
77,066 |
72,278 |
67,483 |
||
Investments |
33,970 |
30,788 |
33,659 |
36,965 |
||
Other |
13,869 |
12,774 |
12,774 |
12,774 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
33,513 |
34,641 |
33,152 |
35,015 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
8,218 |
9,952 |
8,024 |
8,972 |
||
Cash |
18,717 |
23,650 |
24,088 |
25,004 |
||
Other |
6,578 |
1,039 |
1,039 |
1,039 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(10,103) |
(11,102) |
(9,968) |
(10,095) |
Creditors |
(4,092) |
(4,963) |
(3,829) |
(3,956) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(6,011) |
(6,139) |
(6,139) |
(6,139) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(56,159) |
(56,302) |
(51,302) |
(46,302) |
Long term borrowings |
(48,117) |
(48,385) |
(43,385) |
(38,385) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(8,042) |
(7,917) |
(7,917) |
(7,917) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
94,065 |
87,865 |
90,593 |
95,840 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
9,989 |
10,684 |
9,171 |
8,916 |
Net Interest |
(2,904) |
(3,049) |
(2,465) |
(2,206) |
||
Tax |
(2,174) |
571 |
(937) |
(1,448) |
||
Capex |
0 |
(5,388) |
(250) |
(250) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
(2,404) |
(2,402) |
(2,402) |
||
Other |
(4,485) |
(1,856) |
2,871 |
3,305 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
426 |
(1,442) |
5,988 |
5,915 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
32,932 |
33,636 |
34,079 |
28,641 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
-461 |
-999 |
550 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
33,636 |
34,079 |
28,641 |
22,725 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
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Research: Real Estate
publity is an asset manager with long-term experience of investing in German office buildings. It is the largest servicer of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Germany and is able to acquire assets from restructuring German banks. It focuses entirely on asset management and is not distracted by property and facility management. It evaluates and analyses more than 1,000 assets per year, acquiring individual assets for its clients, rather than making portfolio acquisitions. It currently has AUM of €3bn and a potential deal pipeline of more than €26bn. Current valuations are attractive relative to sector comparatives, despite having the highest yield in its peer group.