UBM Development — Reinvented business model

UBM Development (AV: UBS)

Last close As at 17/04/2024

EUR21.90

−0.10 (−0.45%)

Market capitalisation

164m

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Research: Real Estate

UBM Development — Reinvented business model

In response to COVID-19, UBM Development shifted its strategic focus away from hotels to residential and office real estate, with particular emphasis on ESG principles. Consequently, its €2.3bn pipeline as at end-2020 (vs €2.5bn at end-2019) included €1.25bn in residential projects (covering 3,000+ units) and €750m in ‘new type’ office investments after it re-classified all hotel projects in pre-construction stage. Hotels already under construction are scheduled for completion in FY21 but are unlikely to be sold before the market fully recovers. While UBM did not make any major project acquisitions in 2020, it continues to search for new opportunities with a €247m cash balance at end-2020. Management aims at returning to pre-COVID-19 earnings level in FY22.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Real Estate

UBM Development

Reinvented business model

Real estate

QuickView

4 May 2021

Price

€41.10

Market cap

€307m

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Share details

Code

UBS

Listing

Vienna Stock Exchange

Shares in issue

7.5m

Business description

UBM Development is a real estate developer focused mainly on residential and office segments (80% of new development pipeline), located in major metropolitan areas in Germany and Austria (80% of pipeline), as well as CEE countries. UBM forward sold to institutional property investors (inc. Vanovia – German market leader) 800 out of 1,000 units sold in FY20. Its business model also covers the operation and rental of standing assets, including hotel leasing activities, conducted through a 50% joint venture.

Bull

Focus on resilient segments of real estate market mostly in developed countries.

Strong balance sheet with significant resources to benefit from market opportunities.

Focus on ESG principles to meet client demand.

Bear

Modest landbank amid limited availability of new land for purchases.

Execution risk associated with strategic shift.

Uncertain short-term financial impact from completed but unsold hotels in FY21.

Analysts

Milosz Papst

+44 (0) 20 3681 2519

Michal Mierzwiak

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

UBM Development is a client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In response to COVID-19, UBM Development shifted its strategic focus away from hotels to residential and office real estate, with particular emphasis on ESG principles. Consequently, its €2.3bn pipeline as at end-2020 (vs €2.5bn at end-2019) included €1.25bn in residential projects (covering 3,000+ units) and €750m in ‘new type’ office investments after it re-classified all hotel projects in pre-construction stage. Hotels already under construction are scheduled for completion in FY21 but are unlikely to be sold before the market fully recovers. While UBM did not make any major project acquisitions in 2020, it continues to search for new opportunities with a €247m cash balance at end-2020. Management aims at returning to pre-COVID-19 earnings level in FY22.

Strong balance sheet despite subdued FY20 earnings

UBM’s revenue was down c 24% y-o-y to €183.3m in FY20 with muted transaction activity due to COVID-19 and a high base from high-volume projects sales in FY19. This was coupled with a 54% decline in income from hotel operations to €27.8m (affected by write-offs). This was partially offset by €62.3m net revaluation gains (€21.7m in FY19) and a c 43% fall in cost of materials and services (including construction costs and book value of properties sold), resulting in pre-tax profit falling by just c 12% y-o-y to €62.3m (net profit after minorities down 29% y-o-y to €32.8m). Both loan-to-value and equity ratios sat at a moderate 35% at end-2020.

Developing green and cutting-edge properties

UBM adopted its green. smart. and more. approach for all of its developments, reflecting its holistic and sustainable approach to green building and smart offices. It stands for sustainable, intelligent and aesthetically appealing properties. UBM’s ESG focus has been recently recognised by Institutional Shareholder Services placing UBM among the top 15% of real estate companies in Germany and Austria. UBM considers sustainable materials an essential part of green investments and aims to become the leading timber construction developer in Europe.

Valuation: Continuing record-high distributions

UBM maintained its dividend payment of €2.20 per share (50% payout ratio), which translates into a healthy 5.4% yield. We compare UBM to a peer group of European real estate developers, including Warimpex, Instone, Bonava, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments. UBM trades at discounts of 19% and 5% to peers on 2021e P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples respectively, changing to 30% and 4% for 2022e.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBIT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

242.0

71.5

6.15

2.20

6.7

5.4

12/20

183.3

62.4

4.39

2.20

9.4

5.4

12/21e

270.9

52.0

3.70

1.90

11.1

4.6

12/22e

388.1

76.3

6.16

2.30

6.7

5.6

Source: UBM accounts, Refinitiv consensus at 4 May 2021

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by UBM Development and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by UBM Development. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by UBM Development and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by UBM Development. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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