OxBox investment to aid future growth

Oxford Biomedica 6 February 2020 Update
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Oxford Biomedica

OxBox investment to aid future growth

Corporate update

Pharma & biotech

6 February 2020

Price

629p

Market cap

£483m

$:£0.8; €:£0.88; $:€0.91

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2019 (excluding £11.5m Axovant milestone)

26.1

Shares in issue

76.8m

Free float

69%

Code

OXB

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(6.1)

13.1

(10.8)

Rel (local)

(4.4)

10.6

(15.7)

52-week high/low

771p

497p

Business description

Oxford Biomedica’s (OXB’s) LentiVector technology underpins the company’s strategy. OXB generates significant revenue from partners that use its technology, notably Novartis, Bioverativ (Sanofi), Orchard Therapeutics and Santen. OXB is implementing significant capacity upgrades to enable more partnering/out-licensing agreements.

Next events

FY 2019 results

March 2020

New out-licence or partnership

H120

OTL-101 BLA/MAA rolling submission

H1 2020

Analyst

Dr Susie Jana

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Oxford Biomedica is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Oxford Biomedica (OXB) is a pioneer and global leader in the development and manufacture of commercial-scale lentiviral vectors (LVV), a critical component of cell and gene therapies. Ongoing investment in manufacturing capacity and R&D is imperative to reap economic returns in this highly innovative and potentially lucrative therapy area, which has witnessed a step up in investment globally. Multiple deals in 2019 included an expansion of its commercial supply agreement with Novartis by five years and R&D partnerships with Santen and Microsoft. We expect further platform deals to be announced in 2020, as OXB exploits its position as the only FDA-approved commercial-scale LVV manufacturer. In the long term, much value resides in OXB’s ability to develop and monetise its own gene therapies. We value OXB at £692m.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

37.6

(13.1)

(16.7)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18

66.8

0.3

4.3

0.0

146.3

N/A

12/19e

76.9

(7.9)

(7.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20e

89.8

2.9

7.4

0.0

85.0

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

OxBox investment to attract partnerships

By mid-2020 OXB’s commercial LVV production capacity will have increased via its investment in OxBox, an 84,000 sq ft state-of-the-art bioprocessing manufacturing facility. The extension of the Novartis commercial supply agreement (in December 2019) validates OXB’s foresight to invest for growth as vector manufacturing capacity continues to be constrained globally. OXB is a leader in its field and its expertise in LVV development means it continues to remain extremely attractive to future and existing partners. In 2019 OXB signed two R&D collaborations with Santen (gene therapy for an inherited retinal disorder) and Microsoft (to improve the yield and quality of vectors using machine learning).

Debt removed, investment is key

Novo Holdings’ equity investment (£53.5m) in May has enabled OXB to fully repay its costly revolving debt facility, leading to a much-improved debt-free balance sheet, and boosted cash for developing its platform and own portfolio of assets. We continue to expect ongoing growth in the top line, driven in the near term by Kymriah (Novartis), the progression of Sanofi/Bioverativ’s haemophilia products to the clinic and the rapid advancement of its partnered products with Orchard and Axovant. OXB is in a growth phase and ongoing investments are necessary to ensure future growth. We expect OXB to remain at break even or positive operating income in the near term.

Valuation: £692m (£9.02 per share)

We value OXB at £692m (£9.02 per share). Our sales forecasts are unchanged and our core drivers remain OXB’s partnerships, We reflect net cash of £26.1m at end June 2019 (excluding £11.5m Axovant milestone). For details of our valuation please see our outlook note, In a cell and gene therapy sweet spot.

The 2019 foundations are set for 2020 growth

OXB is a leader in its field, as one of the world’s premier developers and manufacturers of commercial-scale, GMP-approved LVVs. The announcement on the extension of the Novartis commercial supply agreement reinforces the need to continue investing in the growth of OXB (capacity, yield improvements, development of own gene therapies). As vector manufacturing capacity continues to be constrained globally, companies such as OXB are in a strong position to drive value for their platforms. Additionally, OXB’s expertise in lentiviral development means it continues to remain extremely attractive to future and existing partners. Partner Axovant is rapidly progressing clinical development of AXO-Lenti-PD. The 12-month data published early this year from the first two patients in the ongoing Phase I/II dose-escalation study (SUNRISE-PD) in advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients are encouraging and serve as validation of OXB’s internal pipeline; in the long term, much value resides in OXB’s ability to develop and monetise its own gene therapies

Novartis committed to CAR-T as programmes expand

OXB has expanded its commercial supply agreement with Novartis by five years, effectively removing uncertainty around the future of the partnership. The expanded agreement serves as validation of OXB’s investment in OxBox. OXB is now working on five different LVVs for use in Novartis’s CAR-T products. Although the targets are undisclosed by OXB, we assume (based on Novartis’s recent R&D day) they are focused on CD19, BCMA, CD22, IL3RA and EGFRvIII. We note that the $75m minimum revenue announced in the expanded commercial partnership is for vector batches only. As a result, OXB will benefit separately from development revenue for these new assets, which could provide substantial upside to our current assumptions.

Partnerships advancing through financial milestones

Partner Axovant has swiftly accelerated AXO-Lenti-PD into the clinic, with a Phase I/II dose-escalation study (SUNRISE-PD) in advanced PD patients ongoing. Following positive early data in the lowest dose cohort (n=2), a second dose cohort is enrolling (OXB received a $15m milestone payment on enrolment of first patient) for which data are expected mid-2020. In January 2020 Axovant reported 12 month post-dosing data, which demonstrated an average 22-point change from baseline (represents a 37% improvement) in motor function as assessed by the UPDRS Part III ‘OFF’ score. These data are encouraging (although restricted to two patients) as they expand from the 17-point change from baseline (29% improvement) seen at 6 months on the same scale. We anticipate further milestone payments (OXB has guided up to $55m in development milestones in the medium term, of which $15m have been received) as progress continues. The haemophilia development partnership with Sanofi (previously Bioverativ) is progressing towards clinical development material in the coming 12 months, which could lead to an increase in payments to OXB (the total deal value is up to $100m in product development and regulatory and sales-related milestones).

Balance sheet strengthened

The equity investment in May of £53.5m by Novo Holdings (for 10.1% of the outstanding share capital) has enabled OXB to fully repay the £43.6m debt facility with Oaktree Capital Management. This is a welcome move as the debt cost was substantial (as shown by the H119 interest payment of £4.8m) and its removal will allow OXB to fully focus its cash resources on growing the business. Additionally on 4 February, OXB sold 635,000 ADS of its Orchard equity stake raising gross cash proceeds of $8.4m, further strengthening its balance sheet. We continue to expect ongoing growth in OXB’s top line, driven in the near term by Kymriah (Novartis), progression of Sanofi’s (previously Bioverativ) haemophilia products to the clinic (via development milestone payments) and the rapid advancement of OXB’s partnered products with Orchard (notably OTL-101, where a biologics licence application/marketing authorisation rolling submission is expected in H120) and AXO-Lenti-PD. Early-stage collaborations with Santen and Boehringer Ingelheim and the UK Cystic Fibrosis Gene Therapy Consortium will continue to contribute a growing share of the top line as OXB undertakes development work.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, year-end: December, £000s

 

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

27,776

37,590

66,778

76,907

89,799

Cost of sales

 

(11,835)

(18,442)

(22,763)

(24,240)

(26,807)

Gross profit

 

15,941

19,148

44,015

52,667

62,991

Administrative expenses

 

(5,957)

(7,276)

(7,433)

(10,035)

(13,547)

R&D and bioprocessing costs

 

(24,299)

(21,611)

(29,714)

(44,264)

(46,532)

Other income/(expense)

 

3,002

1,774

1,064

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0

2,297

5,983

(1,411)

0

Operating profit/(loss)

 

(11,313)

(5,668)

13,915

(3,043)

2,913

Finance income/(expense)

 

(8,994)

(6,093)

(8,901)

(6,238)

6

Reported PBT

 

(20,307)

(11,761)

5,014

(9,280)

2,919

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

3,666

2,744

2,527

2,653

2,786

Reported net income

 

(16,641)

(9,017)

7,541

(6,627)

5,705

Basic average number of shares, m

 

56

62

65

71

77

Basic EPS (p)

 

(29.9)

(14.6)

11.6

(9.3)

7.4

Adjusted EBITDA

 

(6,773)

(2,645)

13,535

5,333

10,868

Adjusted EBIT

 

(10,448)

(7,020)

9,178

(1,632)

2,913

Adjusted PBT

 

(19,442)

(13,113)

277

(7,869)

2,919

Adjusted EPS (p)

 

(28.4)

(16.7)

4.3

(7.3)

7.4

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

27,514

25,370

31,791

51,119

58,422

Intangible assets

 

1,330

97

117

113

109

Other non-current assets

 

657

2,954

10,966

0

0

Total non-current assets

 

29,501

28,421

42,874

51,232

58,532

Cash and equivalents

 

15,335

14,329

32,244

8,532

1,256

Inventories

 

2,202

3,332

4,251

4,527

5,006

Trade and other receivables

 

6,904

17,088

30,585

37,927

44,284

Other current assets

 

3,000

2,232

2,446

13,619

13,752

Total current assets

 

27,441

36,981

69,526

64,605

64,298

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

34,389

36,864

41,153

0

0

Contract liabilities and deferred income

 

0

0

6,434

6,434

6,434

Other non-current liabilities

 

622

630

1,566

9,735

9,735

Total non-current liabilities

 

35,011

37,494

49,153

16,169

16,169

Trade and other payables

 

6,003

8,690

11,422

12,163

13,451

Contract liabilities and deferred income

 

3,313

13,072

17,084

17,084

17,084

Total current liabilities

 

9,316

21,762

28,506

29,247

30,535

Equity attributable to company

 

12,615

6,146

34,741

70,420

76,125

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating profit/(loss)

 

(11,313)

(5,668)

13,915

(3,043)

2,913

Depreciation and amortisation

 

3,675

4,375

4,357

6,964

7,955

Share based payments

 

865

945

1,246

0

0

Other adjustments

 

(579)

(1,326)

(8,012)

0

0

Movements in working capital

 

1,423

141

(2,292)

(6,876)

(5,549)

Income taxes paid

 

4,081

4,512

3,654

2,446

2,653

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

(1,848)

2,979

12,868

(509)

7,973

Capex

 

(6,458)

(1,969)

(10,148)

(26,288)

(15,255)

Other investing activities

 

47

38

52

43

6

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

(6,411)

(1,931)

(10,096)

(26,245)

(15,249)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

17,497

385

19,808

50,475

0

Movements in debt

 

0

8,361

0

(41,153)

0

Interest paid

 

(3,258)

(10,800)

(4,665)

(6,280)

0

Other financing activities

 

0

0

0

0

0

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

14,239

(2,054)

15,143

3,042

0

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

5,980

(1,006)

17,915

(23,712)

(7,276)

Currency translation differences and other

 

0

0

0

0

0

Cash and equivalents at beginning of period

 

9,355

15,335

14,329

32,244

8,532

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

15,335

14,329

32,244

8,532

1,256

Net (debt)/cash

 

(19,054)

(22,535)

(8,909)

8,532

1,256

Source: Oxford Biomedica accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Oxford Biomedica and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Oxford Biomedica. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Oxford Biomedica and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Oxford Biomedica. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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