Estimates maintained at FY20 year end

Walker Greenbank 12 February 2020 Update
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Walker Greenbank

Estimates maintained at FY20 year end

Year-end update

Care & household goods

12 February 2020

Price

76.0p

Market cap

£54m

Net cash (£m) at end July 2019
(excludes IFRS 16 lease liabilities £8.7m)

0.9

Shares in issue

70.9m

Free float

92%

Code

WGB

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.9)

(3.1)

(7.2)

Rel (local)

(11.2)

(6.1)

(13.2)

52-week high/low

91.0p

56.2p

Business description

Walker Greenbank is a luxury interior furnishings group combining specialist design skills with high-quality upstream UK manufacturing facilities. Leading brands include Harlequin, Sanderson, Morris & Co, Scion, Anthology, Zoffany and Clarke & Clarke. FY19 revenue was split UK 53%, international 41% and licence income 6%.

Next events

FY20 results

23 April

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Walker Greenbank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

A reassuring year-end update confirms Walker Greenbank’s FY20 ended in line with management expectations. There do not appear to have been any major changes in market conditions in H2 for each of the three reporting regions. Going into FY21, a progressive strategy roll-out by the new management team will set the scene for future growth aspirations. Our estimates are unchanged and the company’s P/E remains below 10x.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/18**

112.2

12.3

14.1

4.4

5.5

5.8

01/19

113.3

9.1

10.2

3.2

7.4

4.3

01/20e

109.8

7.4

8.3

2.5

9.1

3.3

01/21e

112.8

7.8

9.1

2.7

8.4

3.6

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding exceptional items and LTIP charges. **Restated for IFRS 15.

FY20 sales performance consistent with estimates

Indicative FY20 revenues of £111m are in line with our estimate as are the headline components: total Brand division sales were c £90m (c -3.5% y-o-y comprising product-based -3.0%, core licence income +13.9%, other licence income c 40% lower) with Manufacturing sales to third parties c £20m (+5.5% y-o-y). Strong progress from Morris & Co appears to have contributed to slightly improved year-on-year trends in the UK and certain north European markets, implicitly with an equivalent offset in other brands/international markets. Steps taken in H2 include Clarke & Clarke’s (C&C’s) new North American distributor arrangement with Kravet Inc and a sales hire in Germany should progressively feed into international brand sales as FY21 progresses. The update contained no specific commentary regarding group profitability, save for a reiteration that c £1m of cost savings from consolidating C&Cs support functions was achieved in H2. Pre IFRS 16 net funds of c £1m at the year-end were in line with those seen at the interim stage.

Strategic impetus for FY21

A new management team is substantially in place – pending a CFO appointment – and the process of building out and executing its multi-year strategic plan is underway. An enhanced brand and core product focus should start to become apparent over FY21; we noted the Sanderson/National Trust collaboration (announced 30 January) and will be looking for other markers with the FY20 results announcement (23 April). Some positive post UK general election commentary (eg Coutts Real Estate, Savills and Bovill) may feed through to higher residential transactions in due course and this would benefit Walker Greenbank in its domestic market, which accounts for around half of revenues.

Valuation: Single digit P/Es

Walker Greenbank’s share price rallied strongly from the beginning of December but has given up most of those gains in 2020 trading so far. Consequently, the company’s valuation is little changed from our December note with a closing year P/E of 9.1x and EV/EBITDA (adjusted for pensions cash) of 5.5x and reductions in both metrics expected over our estimate horizon.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'ms

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2018R

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

January y/e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

75.7

78.4

83.4

87.8

92.4

108.8

112.2

113.3

109.8

112.8

115.5

Cost of Sales

 

 

(30.2)

(30.3)

(32.7)

(35.9)

(36.2)

(43.3)

(44.0)

(45.3)

(40.1)

(41.2)

(42.1)

Gross Profit

 

 

45.5

48.1

50.7

52.0

56.2

65.5

68.2

68.0

69.7

71.7

73.3

EBITDA (pre IFRS16)

 

 

8.6

9.7

10.7

11.8

13.4

15.5

15.7

12.9

11.6

12.0

12.2

Op Profit (before GW, except. & LTIP)

 

6.6

7.5

8.3

9.1

10.6

12.4

12.6

9.4

7.9

8.3

8.3

Op Profit (before GW and except.) – rptd

5.8

6.5

7.3

8.2

9.8

12.0

12.2

10.0

7.9

7.7

7.7

Net Interest

 

 

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.4)

Intangible Amort - acquired

 

 

0

0

0

0

(0.3)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Pension net finance charge

(0.7)

(0.9)

(0.8)

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Exceptionals

 

 

0

0

0

0

(1.8)

2.3

2.3

(2.2)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

6.4

7.3

8.1

8.9

10.4

12.1

12.3

9.1

7.4

7.8

7.9

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

4.9

5.5

6.3

7.3

7.0

12.8

13.0

6.3

5.2

6.0

6.1

Tax

 

 

(1.0)

(0.5)

(1.2)

(1.5)

(1.6)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

5.4

6.6

6.9

7.5

8.6

11.1

10.0

7.3

6.1

6.4

6.5

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

4.0

5.0

5.1

5.9

5.4

11.8

11.9

5.1

3.9

4.6

4.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

57.5

58.5

59.3

60.0

62.7

70.4

70.4

71.0

71.0

71.0

71.0

EPS - normalised (p) FD

 

 

9.4

10.7

11.2

11.6

12.9

13.9

14.1

10.2

8.3

9.1

9.2

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

6.9

8.6

8.6

9.8

8.6

16.7

16.9

7.2

5.5

6.5

6.6

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.9

3.6

4.4

4.4

3.2

2.5

2.7

2.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

60.1

61.3

60.8

59.2

60.8

60.2

60.8

60.0

63.5

63.5

63.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

11.4

12.4

12.8

13.4

14.6

14.2

14.0

11.4

10.6

10.7

10.6

Op Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

 

7.7

8.3

8.8

9.3

10.7

11.0

10.9

8.8

7.2

6.8

6.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

18.5

21.1

21.5

18.9

47.5

47.7

47.7

46.0

51.8

47.2

42.6

Intangible Assets

 

 

6.7

7.3

7.2

7.1

31.6

31.8

31.8

30.8

29.6

28.4

27.2

Tangible Assets

 

 

9.8

11.7

12.7

11.7

15.8

16.0

16.0

15.2

22.2

18.8

15.4

Investments

 

 

2.0

2.2

1.6

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

32.6

35.3

37.1

40.3

51.3

51.9

52.1

49.3

49.8

53.4

56.9

Stocks

 

 

16.8

18.4

22.0

18.1

30.3

29.4

29.5

28.0

28.5

29.3

30.0

Debtors

 

 

12.8

13.9

14.1

19.3

19.5

21.2

21.3

18.9

18.0

18.8

19.5

Cash

 

 

2.9

2.8

1.0

2.9

1.5

1.3

1.3

2.4

3.3

5.3

7.3

Other

 

 

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Liabilities

 

 

(17.3)

(19.4)

(20.7)

(19.4)

(34.8)

(28.9)

(28.9)

(23.8)

(25.5)

(26.8)

(26.5)

Creditors

 

 

(16.9)

(19.0)

(20.3)

(19.0)

(28.0)

(22.4)

(22.4)

(21.8)

(24.0)

(25.2)

(25.0)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(6.8)

(6.6)

(6.6)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(9.6)

(10.2)

(10.9)

(4.5)

(12.7)

(9.1)

(9.1)

(10.6)

(10.2)

(5.2)

(1.5)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(1.4)

(0.9)

(0.6)

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(8.2)

(9.2)

(10.4)

(4.3)

(12.7)

(9.1)

(9.1)

(10.6)

(10.2)

(5.2)

(1.5)

Net Assets

 

 

24.2

26.9

26.9

35.3

51.3

61.6

61.8

60.9

65.9

68.7

71.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6.0

6.2

3.5

7.1

12.4

7.0

7.0

12.6

10.8

11.2

11.3

Net Interest

 

 

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Tax

 

 

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.6)

(2.3)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(0.8)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Capex

 

 

(3.1)

(4.7)

(3.2)

(2.5)

(6.7)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(2.8)

(3.0)

(3.0)

(3.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(27.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.4)

(0.1)

18.3

1.8

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

 

 

(0.7)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.4)

(1.8)

(2.7)

(2.7)

(3.1)

(2.2)

(1.8)

(1.9)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

1.8

0.3

(1.5)

2.3

(7.4)

0.1

0.1

5.7

3.9

4.6

4.6

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

0.7

(1.2)

(1.5)

(0.0)

(2.3)

5.3

5.3

5.3

(0.4)

(1.8)

(3.8)

Net finance leases

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

(2.6)

(2.6)

(2.6)

Other

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.1)

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.2)

(1.5)

(0.0)

(2.3)

5.3

5.3

5.3

(0.4)

(1.8)

(3.8)

(5.8)

Lease finance (IFRS16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.3

4.4

1.9

Source: Walker Greenbank, Edison Investment Research. Note: 2018 results restated for IFRS 15 Revenue from Contracts with Customers; the primary P&L effects were to reclassify some marketing materials/services as net other income and carriage recoveries to revenue and, as they were previously netted out of distribution costs, increase this cost line. From FY20 onwards (ie the three estimate years) figures are presented on an IFRS 16 basis.


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This report has been commissioned by Walker Greenbank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Walker Greenbank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Walker Greenbank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Walker Greenbank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Germany

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United Kingdom

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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