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33% growth in recurring revenue

Checkit 11 February 2021 Update
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Checkit

33% growth in recurring revenue

FY21 trading update

Software & comp services

11 February 2021

Price

52p

Market cap

£32m

Net cash (£m) at end FY21

11.5

Shares in issue

62.4m

Free float

56.2%

Code

CKT

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.0)

9.5

62.5

Rel (local)

7.3

4.1

80.7

52-week high/low

53.5p

24.0p

Business description

Checkit optimises the performance of people, processes and physical assets with connected digital solutions. It is headquartered in Cambridge, UK and has its operations centre in Fleet, UK.

Next events

FY21 results

April 2021

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Checkit is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Checkit saw better-than-expected performance in Q421 and closed the year ahead of our forecasts. In FY21, Checkit Connect grew 13% y-o-y on a pro-forma (PF) basis while Checkit BEMS saw business rebound in H2 after lockdown restrictions in the construction sector were relaxed. The company made good progress with its strategy to build its subscription contract base: recurring revenue grew to 39% of FY21 revenue, up from 30% for FY21 PF. We have revised our forecasts to reflect better-than-expected trading in FY21 and the recent acquisition of Tutela in the US.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

EV/sales
(x)

01/19

1.0

(4.4)

(2.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/20

9.8

(5.1)

(3.1)

0.0

N/A

2.1

01/21e

13.2

(3.3)

(5.4)

0.0

N/A

1.6

01/22e

15.1

(3.2)

(5.2)

0.0

N/A

1.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q421 revenue growth of 6% y-o-y

Checkit generated Q421 revenue growth of 6% y-o-y, with 6% growth for Checkit Connect and 2% for Checkit BEMS. This resulted in group revenue growth of 3% for FY21 (PF), 2% ahead of our forecast. Recurring revenue grew 33% y-o-y to make up 39% of FY21 revenue (FY20: 30% PF), helped by a combination of new software subscribers, price increases and the shift of maintenance work onto subscription contracts. Management expects FY21 operating profit to be c 15% ahead of consensus. Cash at the end of FY21 was £11.5m, ahead of our £10.5m forecast. For the first time, the company published annualised recurring revenue (ARR) at year-end; ARR of £5.7m was 46% higher than at the end of FY20, highlighting the progress it has made in signing up new subscribers and shifting the maintenance contract base to a subscription basis.

Upgrading estimates

We have revised our forecasts to take account of the better-than-expected performance in FY21. We have also factored in last week’s Tutela acquisition and increased sales and marketing spend in FY22. Overall, estimated revenue increases by 1.8% in FY21 and 7.1% in FY22. We reduce our normalised operating loss from £3.8m to £3.3m in FY21 and leave our FY22 forecast unchanged.

Valuation: Sum of parts suggests upside

On an EV/sales multiple of 1.6x for FY21e and 1.4x for FY22e, Checkit trades at a significant discount to the UK software sector (5.7x current year sales). On a sum-of-the-parts basis attributing EV/sales multiples that better reflect the performance and prospects for each division, we estimate the stock is significantly undervalued. For example, using a 4x FY21e multiple for Checkit Connect and 1x for Checkit BEMS would result in a valuation of 72p per share.

FY21 trading update

The company expects to report the following revenue for Q421/FY21.

Exhibit 1: Checkit quarterly and annual revenues

Q421a

Q420a

y-o-y

FY21a

FY21e

FY20 PF*

Diff

y-o-y

Checkit Connect

Recurring

1.5

1.0

51%

5.1

5.0

3.9

3%

33%

Non-recurring

0.2

0.6

(54%)

1.6

1.5

2.1

7%

(23%)

1.7

1.6

6%

6.7

6.5

6.0

4%

13%

Checkit BEMS

Non-recurring

1.7

1.6

2%

6.5

6.5

6.8

0%

(5%)

Group revenue

3.4

3.2

6%

13.2

13.0

12.8

2%

3%

Total recurring revenue

1.5

1.0

51%

5.1

5.0

3.9

3%

33%

Total non-recurring revenue

1.9

2.2

(14%)

8.1

8.0

8.9

1%

(9%)

Recurring/total

44%

31%

39%

38%

30%

Source: Checkit, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Reflects full 12 months for business acquired in May 2019.

Q421 revenues were stronger than forecast, resulting in FY21 revenues 2% ahead of our forecast. Checkit Connect came in 4% ahead of our forecast with both recurring and non-recurring revenues ahead of expectations. Checkit BEMS was in line with our forecast and ended the year only 5% lower than FY20 PF, despite significant disruption to activities in H121 due to COVID-19. Although there have been two lockdowns in H221, construction has been allowed to continue, and in some cases, it has been easier to send staff to work on projects as premises are effectively empty.

Checkit also disclosed year-end ARR for the first time. At £5.7m it was 46% higher than a year ago. This resulted from a combination of factors: more subscribers signing up to use software; price increases; and maintenance work classed as non-recurring being shifted onto subscription contracts.

The company expects the FY21 operating result will be c 15% better than current market estimates as a result of the higher revenues. Cash at the end of FY21 was £11.5m, significantly higher than our £10.5m forecast.

Supporting the UK vaccine roll-out

In January, Checkit announced it had supplied its Connected Automated Monitoring (CAM) technology to the NHS for use in vaccination centres. This includes the Excel Centre in London and more than 100 smaller vaccination clinics across the UK. Its CAM technology provides 24/7 real-time surveillance of temperature conditions in medical fridges and freezers using wireless sensors connected to cloud-based data storage. Checkit has worked with the NHS for a number of years and providing support to such a critical area highlights not only the company’s technology but its ability to support customers with installation and ongoing maintenance.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

Checkit noted it would focus on sales and marketing in FY22. It also noted that it expected to revise its accounting for intangible assets when it reports FY21 results in April. The company has previously written down the value of all intangible assets, ie goodwill, acquired intangibles and capitalised development costs. It now expects to reinstate some of this – as detail will not be available until April, we have not factored this into our forecasts.

We have revised our forecasts to take account of the following:

higher than expected revenue and cash and a smaller than expected loss for FY21;

the Tutela acquisition made last week; and

increased sales and marketing spend in FY22.

The table below shows our revised estimates.

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY21e

FY22e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenues

13.0

13.2

1.8%

34.7%

14.1

15.1

7.1%

14.3%

Gross profit

4.6

4.8

2.2%

82.8%

5.2

5.6

8.6%

18.4%

Gross margin

35.8%

36.0%

0.2%

9.5%

36.8%

37.3%

0.5%

1.3%

EBITDA

(3.0)

(2.5)

-13.7%

-2.1%

(2.4)

(2.4)

0.0%

-4.6%

EBITDA margin

-22.8%

-19.3%

3.5%

7.2%

-17.3%

-16.1%

1.1%

3.2%

Normalised operating profit

(3.8)

(3.3)

-10.8%

-35.6%

(3.2)

(3.2)

0.0%

-3.5%

Normalised operating profit margin

-28.9%

-25.4%

3.6%

27.7%

-22.9%

-21.4%

1.5%

3.9%

Reported operating profit

(4.5)

(4.1)

-9.0%

-75.2%

(3.6)

(3.6)

0.0%

-11.4%

Reported operating margin

-34.7%

-31.0%

3.7%

137.3%

-25.8%

-24.1%

1.7%

7.0%

Normalised PBT

(3.8)

(3.3)

-10.8%

-34.4%

(3.2)

(3.2)

0.0%

-3.5%

Reported PBT

(4.5)

(4.1)

-9.0%

-75.0%

(3.6)

(3.6)

0.0%

-11.4%

Normalised net income

(3.8)

(3.3)

-10.8%

-32.9%

(3.2)

(3.2)

0.0%

-3.5%

Reported net income

(3.6)

(3.2)

-11.2%

-104.3%

(3.6)

(3.6)

0.0%

13.6%

Normalised basic EPS

(6.05)

(5.39)

-10.9%

74.1%

(5.21)

(5.17)

-0.7%

-4.0%

Normalised diluted EPS

(6.05)

(5.39)

-10.9%

74.1%

(5.21)

(5.17)

-0.7%

-4.0%

Reported basic EPS

(5.81)

(5.15)

-11.3%

-111.2%

(5.85)

(5.81)

-0.7%

12.9%

Net debt/(cash)

(10.5)

(11.5)

9.3%

-19.5%

(7.1)

(7.1)

-0.3%

-38.2%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£m

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

31-January

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

1.0

9.8

13.2

15.1

Cost of Sales

(1.0)

(7.2)

(8.4)

(9.5)

Gross Profit

0.0

2.6

4.8

5.6

EBITDA

 

 

(2.3)

(2.6)

(2.5)

(2.4)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(4.4)

(5.2)

(3.3)

(3.2)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(0.1)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

(10.3)

(0.8)

(0.4)

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

(4.5)

(16.5)

(4.1)

(3.6)

Net Interest

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(4.4)

(5.1)

(3.3)

(3.2)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(4.5)

(16.4)

(4.1)

(3.6)

Reported tax

0.0

0.7

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(4.4)

(5.0)

(3.3)

(3.2)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(4.5)

(15.7)

(4.1)

(3.6)

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

8.6

89.4

0.9

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(4.4)

(5.0)

(3.3)

(3.2)

Net income (reported)

4.1

73.7

(3.2)

(3.6)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

178

178

161

62

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

(2.48)

(3.10)

(5.39)

(5.17)

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

(2.48)

(3.10)

(5.39)

(5.17)

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

2.31

45.78

(5.15)

(5.81)

Dividend (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

880.0

34.7

14.3

Gross Margin (%)

0.0

26.5

36.0

37.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

-230.0

-26.5

-19.3

-16.1

Normalised Operating Margin

-440.0

-53.1

-25.4

-21.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

5.0

1.2

1.2

1.8

Intangible Assets

2.9

0.0

0.0

0.6

Tangible Assets

1.7

1.2

1.2

1.2

Investments & other

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

19.5

19.4

17.3

13.4

Stocks

4.3

1.7

2.0

2.2

Debtors

5.1

3.4

3.3

3.9

Cash & cash equivalents

10.1

14.3

11.5

7.1

Other

0.0

0.0

0.6

0.2

Current Liabilities

 

 

(7.9)

(5.6)

(6.3)

(6.7)

Creditors

(7.6)

(5.1)

(5.8)

(6.2)

Tax and social security

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.3)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long-term liabilities

(0.3)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Net Assets

 

 

16.3

14.3

11.5

7.9

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

16.3

14.3

11.5

7.9

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(2.3)

(2.6)

(2.5)

(2.4)

Working capital

(0.5)

(1.0)

0.6

(0.5)

Exceptional & other

9.1

4.3

(0.8)

(0.4)

Tax

(0.5)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

5.8

0.2

(2.7)

(3.0)

Capex

(2.2)

(1.6)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

1.3

84.2

0.2

(0.2)

Net interest

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

0.0

(77.9)

0.5

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.8)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Net Cash Flow

4.9

4.2

(2.8)

(4.0)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5.2)

(10.1)

(14.3)

(11.5)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10.1)

(14.3)

(11.5)

(7.1)

Source: Checkit, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Checkit and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Checkit. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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This report has been commissioned by Checkit and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Checkit. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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