Supermarket Income REIT (LSE: SUPR)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 30/03/2023

GBP0.86

2.00 (2.37%)

Market capitalisation

GBP1,109m

Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR), listed on the premium segment of the LSE, invests in supermarket property, let to leading UK supermarket operators, on long, RPI-linked leases. The investment objective is to provide an attractive level of income, with the potential for capital growth.

Across all sectors, UK commercial property values are negatively repricing to increased risk-free yields. Supermarket property is not immune but visible income, from long-leases (for SUPR rents are mostly indexed), a strong occupier covenant, and the non-cyclical nature of grocery retailing should mitigate the impacts.

Supermarket Income REIT_resized

Sector

Real Estate

Equity Analyst

Martyn King

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Key Management

  • Chris McMahon

    Investor relations

  • Haffiz Kala

    Finance director

  • Rob Abraham

    Managing director

  • Steven Noble

    Chief investment officer

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (£m)

531.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

45

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (5.5) (15.7) (33.5)
Relative (1.2) (15.9) (32.1)
52 week high/low 133.0p/84.4p

Financials

The company will issue interim results to 31 December (H123) in late March. We expect income earnings before valuation movements to reflect the positive tailwinds of continuing inflation-linked rent uplifts and a growing contribution from FY22/early FY23 acquisitions. Rent reviews completed during H123 were at an average annualised 3.7%. With debt fixed/hedged, income growth is protected from further interest rate rises. Meanwhile, SUPR’s investment grade credit rating has been reconfirmed. As the market adjusts to higher capital costs, the portfolio value reduced by c 13% on a like-for-like basis during H2, with the topped up net initial yield increasing from 4.6% to 5.5%. This will negatively impact NAV and gearing ratios, but with the mid-year return of cash from the SRP joint venture SUPR retains significant financial and strategic flexibility. We will adjust our published NAV forecast and review our estimates fully with results.

Y/E Jun Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 46.2 38.7 36.8 5.6 15.4 13.2
2022A 69.7 58.2 57.4 5.9 14.6 13.4
2023E 94.5 80.9 71.7 5.8 14.9 13.5
2024E 100.3 86.4 70.9 5.7 15.2 12.8

Real Estate

South African listed property sector

Financials

DACH Industrial & Logistic Property