Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)

Last close As at 19/04/2024

CAD1.18

0.05 (4.42%)

Market capitalisation

CAD1,506m

Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

Alphamin achieved production of 3,126t in Q423 to generate US$20.3m in EBITDA, despite sales being disrupted by unseasonal rains. The new Mpama South mine is moving to expand group production by c 50% (to c 20,000tpa) from Q224, on which basis we calculate a value for Alphamin’s shares of US$1.06 (or C$1.44). However, this increases to as much as US$1.76 (C$2.36) in the event of the company’s exploration programme continuing to extend the life of its operations. Its peers imply a share price for Alphamin as high as C$2.89.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Initiation

Alphamin Resources — Still leading the pack

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Mpama South continues the charge

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Presenting the bull case

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Underlying results exceed prior forecasts

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Charles Needham

    Non-executive Chairman

  • Eoin O'Driscoll

    CFO

  • Maritz Smith

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

1.9

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 20.4 42.2 19.2
Relative 21.1 35.9 13.6
52 week high/low C$1.2/C$0.8

Financials

Alphamin (AFM) offers rare exposure to a metal that both Rio Tinto and MIT regard as the most likely to benefit from energy transition. The company successfully ramped up its Mpama North mine at Bisie in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to full production at a time when the tin price was enjoying one of its biggest bull markets in decades, allowing it to pay off debt and to start making distributions to shareholders.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 391.1 222.2 188.0 7.86 11.0 5.9
2023A 288.5 135.5 94.7 3.68 23.5 556.2
2024E 477.7 241.5 199.3 9.14 9.5 5.0
2025E N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

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