Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)

Last close As at 28/02/2024

CAD0.90

−0.03 (−3.23%)

Market capitalisation

CAD1,148m

Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

AFM achieved production of 3,104t with EBITDA of US$38.3m in Q323. Sales were disrupted by unseasonal rains in Q423. Nevertheless, the Mpama South project is moving to expand group production by c 50% (to c 20,000tpa) from Q224, on which basis we calculate a value for AFM’s shares of US$1.06 (or C$1.44). However, this increases to as much as US$1.76 (C$2.36) in the event that the company’s exploration programme continues to extend the productive life of operations. Similarly, its peers imply a share price for AFM as high as C$2.89.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Initiation

Alphamin Resources — Still leading the pack

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Mpama South continues the charge

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Presenting the bull case

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Underlying results exceed prior forecasts

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Key Management

  • Charles Needham

    Non-executive Chairman

  • Eoin O'Driscoll

    CFO

  • Maritz Smith

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

1.9

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (3.2) 8.4 (3.2)
Relative (3.8) 2.3 (7.9)
52 week high/low C$1.1/C$0.7

Financials

Alphamin Resources (AFM) offers rare exposure to a metal that both Rio Tinto and the MIT regard as the most likely to benefit from the electrification of the world economy. The company successfully ramped up its Mpama North mine at Bisie in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to full production at a time when the tin price was enjoying one of its biggest bull markets in decades, allowing it to pay off debt and to start making distributions to shareholders.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 352.9 198.6 162.7 3.75 17.8 5.6
2022A 391.1 222.2 188.0 7.86 8.5 4.5
2023E 325.0 158.3 121.6 4.99 13.3 17.3
2024E 580.2 317.8 274.3 12.56 5.3 3.1

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