Raven Property Group

LN: RAV

£198.6m market cap

40.55p last close

Raven Property Group (formerly Raven Russia) invests mainly in Class A warehouses in Russia. It also owns three office buildings in St Petersburg, a third-party logistics company in Russia and a residential development company in the UK.

Investment summary

Raven Property Group made further operational and strategic progress in H119 against the background of a strengthening operating environment and firming market rents. Leasing progress is maintaining improved levels of occupancy (average 90% in H119) and rental income grew with indexation of rouble-denominated rents and a full period contribution from 2018 acquisitions. Property values increased in roubles and more so in sterling, with a c 10% increase in the value of the rouble versus sterling during H119 (and only partly retraced since). NAV per share rose 40% to 67p and the effect of subsequent share repurchases from Woodford Investment Management and Invesco Asset Management since will have been to lift this further while eliminating any perceived stock overhang. An unusually wide discount to NAV has opened up while an interim distribution of 1.25p will be made in November by way of a tender offer buyback of one share in every 44 at 55p.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
EBITDA (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 130.0 N/A 56.0 5.7 7.1 2.7
2018A 118.0 N/A 26.0 3.1 13.1 2.7
2019E 131.0 N/A 54.0 8.0 5.1 2.3
2020E 127.0 N/A 29.0 4.7 8.6 2.0
Industry outlook

Russian economic growth continues but at a slower pace. With inflation falling faster than expected interest rates have fallen to the lowest level since 2014. A continuing positive demand-supply balance is forecast in warehouse sector, a positive indicator for rents and vacancy.

Last updated on 21/11/2019
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 942
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 258
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (1.3) 7.0 (7.8)
Relative* (2.3) 5.5 (11.2)
52-week high/low 49.9p/36.4p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Glyn Hirsch CEO
Mark Sinclair CFO

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