Raven Property Group

LN: RAV

Market Cap£186.9m

Last Close 33p

Raven Property Group invests mainly in Class A warehouses in Russia let to large Russian and international companies, commercial office space in St Petersburg and a third-party logistics company in Russia. It aims to deliver progressive distributions to shareholders over the long term.

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Investment summary

H121 results were published on 31 August and showed strong occupancy, which had since increased further (to 96%), and increasing rents, driving property valuation gains. Reported in sterling, operational gains were obscured by a lower average rouble value (-15% vs H120) although the spot rate has improved since H1. NOI increased from RUB5.2bn to RUB5.4bn but was 13% lower in sterling. Underlying earnings nevertheless improved to £17.3m (H120: £10.4m loss). The balance sheet showed little H1 FX impact and revaluation gains were the main driver of 13% growth in NAV or 25% growth in NAV/share to 50p, further benefiting from accretive share repurchases. Interest rates have risen further (to 7.5%) to combat the increase in inflation (7.4% in September), increasing rouble borrowing costs above our forecasts. The higher rouble versus sterling mitigates the negative impact on net earnings and is clearly positive for NAV.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
EBITDA (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 127.0 N/A 54.0 6.4 5.6 N/A
2020A 113.0 N/A (25.0) (6.9) N/A N/A
2021E 102.0 N/A 30.0 4.1 8.8 N/A
2022E 104.0 N/A 16.0 1.6 22.5 N/A
Industry outlook

The Russian Economics Ministry has increased its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.8% as the economy recovers from the impacts of the pandemic. Strong demand for warehouse space, especially driven by e-commerce activity, combined with low vacancy, a lack of new supply, and increased construction costs are generating increased rents and valuations.

Last updated on 25/11/2021
Content on Raven Property Group
Raven Property Group – Positive developments obscured by FX
Real Estate | Outlook | 10 September 2020
gorigo june 18
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 876
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 334
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (8.0) 26.9 25.0
Relative* (8.9) 25.5 9.4
52-week high/low 36.5p/25.6p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Glyn Hirsch CEO
Mark Sinclair CFO