EML Payments - hero banner - 18062019 - JPG

EML Payments

AU: EML

Market CapAU$459m

Last Close AU$1.23

EML Payments is a payment solutions company specialising in the prepaid stored value market, with mobile, physical and virtual card offerings. It manages thousands of programmes across 27 countries in Europe, North America and Australia.

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Investment summary

EML’s Q322 trading update confirmed gross debit volume growth of 408% y-o-y (we estimate 11% organic) and revenue growth of 21% to A$59.8m. Underlying EBITDA and NPATA were down 14% and 22% respectively. With this update, EML downgraded its FY22 guidance. A number of factors have combined to weigh on revenue and increase overheads. We have revised our forecasts to reflect lower revenue growth and a higher cost base, cutting our EBITDA and NPATA forecasts for FY22–24. In our view, resolution of the Irish regulatory issue and rising interest rates are the two main factors that could provide earnings and share price upside.

Y/E Jun
Revenue (A$m)
EBITDA (A$m)
PBT (A$m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 121.0 32.5 21.6 5.489 22.4 12.0
2021A 192.2 42.2 30.2 6.579 18.7 10.7
2022E 229.1 37.1 20.1 4.264 28.8 12.3
2023E 268.4 67.7 45.5 9.575 12.8 6.8
Industry outlook

In terms of market size, US$1,848bn was loaded onto prepaid cards in 2019 and this is forecast to grow to US$5,511bn by 2027, a CAGR of 14.6% (source: Applied Market Research). EML is keen to gain share of this fast-growing market and, as part of its Project Accelerator strategy to position the company at the forefront of payment-related technology, has made its first two investments via its FinLabs incubator.

Last updated on 30/06/2022
Content on EML Payments
EML Payments – Improving outlook
TMT | research Update | 1 March 2022
EML Payments - hero banner - 18062019 - JPG
EML Payments – Making progress with the Irish regulator
TMT | research Flash note | 26 November 2021
EML Payments - hero banner - 18062019 - JPG
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (A$m) 42.6
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (18) (59.1) (64.7)
Relative* (9.4) (52.8) (60.3)
52-week high/low A$4.2/A$1.2
*% relative to local index
Key management
Robert Shore Group CFO
Tom Cregan MD and CEO