Sparks - Metlen Energy & Metals

Metlen’s FY24 results released on 20 February were broadly in line with consensus (EBITDA €1,080bn, 0.9% above consensus of €1,070bn and 2.4% above Edison of €1055bn, EPS €4.46, 2.2% below consensus €4.56 and 1.1% below Edison €4.51/share).    Adjusted Net Debt (excluding non-recourse debt) was €1.78bn (1.7x ND/EBITDA down from 1.9x at end FY23), in line with our estimates.  FY24 dividend was €1.5/share, slightly below our estimate of €1.58/share.  EBITDA was up 7% year on year to a new high and marks the second year above €1bn.

Energy EBITDA was down marginally year on year to €753m from €766m in FY23, with falls in natural gas prices (-€51m) project activity (-€52m) offset by growth in renewables (+€103m).  Renewables in FY24 recorded record EBITDA of €349m, Metlen’s largest sub-divisional result and outstripping metals at €297m.  Metlen’s renewables business has a significant pipeline of growth (11GW), funded through asset rotation and other cash flows.

Metlen’s outlook remains focussed on growth, with the Chairman’s statement indicating plans to double the size of the business before 2028. Metlen grew its Greek power production by 65% in FY24 with the commissioning on a new, highly efficient power station, and now accounts for 41% of Greece thermal power production and 18% of domestic demand.  It is also expanding alumina and gallium production, and recently announced a strategic partnership with Rio Tinto for bauxite supply.

Metlen is planning to pursue a primary listing on the London Stock exchange (whilst maintaining its ASE listing) in 2025.