Last close As at 05/08/2026
USD3.15
▲ −0.09 (−2.78%)
Market capitalisation
USD226m
Research: Healthcare
On 23 July the World Health Organization (WHO) declared monkeypox a global health emergency (only the seventh since 2009). With the anticipated worldwide mobilization and stockpiling of therapeutics worldwide, we believe SIGA is well positioned to leverage this opportunity following recent broad-label approvals for oral TPOXX (tecovirimat) in the EU and UK. While the US government has been hesitant to declare the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency (there are currently around 2,800 cases in the US), we see an opportunity for TPOXX to expand its label in North America (approved for smallpox), which, if successful, should provide upside to the company’s commercial prospects. We maintain our estimates.
Written by
SIGA Technologies |
WHO declares monkeypox a global emergency |
Regulatory update |
Pharma and biotech |
26 July 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
SIGA Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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On 23 July the World Health Organization (WHO) declared monkeypox a global health emergency (only the seventh since 2009). With the anticipated worldwide mobilization and stockpiling of therapeutics worldwide, we believe SIGA is well positioned to leverage this opportunity following recent broad-label approvals for oral TPOXX (tecovirimat) in the EU and UK. While the US government has been hesitant to declare the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency (there are currently around 2,800 cases in the US), we see an opportunity for TPOXX to expand its label in North America (approved for smallpox), which, if successful, should provide upside to the company’s commercial prospects. We maintain our estimates.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
EBITDA* ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
P/E |
Net cash |
12/20 |
125.0 |
88.6 |
81.5 |
0.81 |
19.4 |
117.9 |
12/21 |
133.7 |
89.7 |
89.1 |
0.91 |
17.2 |
103.1 |
12/22e |
125.0 |
63.5 |
63.0 |
0.66 |
23.8 |
71.9** |
12/23e |
121.3 |
60.5 |
60.0 |
0.66 |
23.8 |
94.9 |
Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalized, excluding exceptional items and other revenue and expenses. **Adjusted for special dividend in Q222e.
With c 16,800 confirmed cases of monkeypox globally, the WHO has declared monkeypox a ‘public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)’. PHEIC is the organization’s highest threat alarm for governments to mobilize resources and create awareness about the disease’s transmission and effective vaccines/ treatment. Monkeypox is the seventh disease to which the WHO has accorded this designation since 2009 (others include H1N1 swine flu, polio, Ebola (twice), Zika and COVID-19). Currently, two vaccines are approved for monkeypox in the US: Jynneos (Imvamune/Imvanex) and ACAM2000. The European Medicine Agency recently recommended the approval of Imvanex for monkeypox in the EU (approved for smallpox).
As a reminder, monkeypox is a viral disease spread by direct contact in a specific population (‘mainly but not exclusively amongst men who have sex with men’ according to the WHO). Historically restricted to West and Central Africa, the current outbreak has seen the highest cases in Europe, the US and Canada. According to the WHO, the disease can present with rash, fever and swollen lymph nodes and unfortunately, typically up to 6% of those ill with monkeypox may die, especially those in younger age groups.
SIGA’s oral TPOXX is the only treatment approved for all orthopoxvirus pathogens, including monkeypox in both the UK (July 2022) and the EU (January 2022) and the recent WHO declaration may possibly lead to approval in the key US market. We expect demand for TPOXX to increase as countries stockpile the treatment. In recent months, a number of European countries, the US and Canada have announced plans to procure medicines (vaccines and treatments) to control monkeypox. We believe these moves fuelled the recent procurement orders for TPOXX from Canada, Europe and Asia Pacific (see our previous report for more details). While current numbers are concentrated geographically, there is potential for the WHO declaration to serve as a catalyst for SIGA’s business and provide further commercial opportunities. We await further development before updating our estimates and valuation for the company.
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Research: Financials
Following the exits of Marmalade and EVRYTHNG in 2021, Bloc’s FY21 NAV/share rose 7% y-o-y to £25.30. Bloc has now delivered a FY18–21 NAV/share CAGR of 19% and a portfolio IRR of 25% since inception. In Q122, incorporating a successful Series A round for Pharrowtech, NAV/share rose a further 9% to £27.51. In FY21, Bloc strengthened its team and processes with new hires. In FY22, management is raising a Series B extension round, having postponed a larger Series C funding round until market conditions improve. Despite challenging markets, management is able to identify a number of potential portfolio up-rounds that it believes could lead to growth in FY22 NAV/share of over 30% y-o-y.