Else Nutrition — Well funded for expansion

Else Nutrition (TSXV: BABY)

Currency in CAD

Last close As at 09/06/2023

CAD0.72

−0.02 (−2.70%)

Market capitalisation

CAD81m

Research: Consumer

Else Nutrition — Well funded for expansion

Else raised gross proceeds of C$7.35m through equity. It offered 7.004m units at C$1.05, with each unit consisting of one share and one warrant. The warrants have an exercise price of C$1.25 and an expiry date of June 2027. The company plans to use net proceeds of C$6.6m for sales and marketing and to build inventory as it expands into new geographies, and on research and development (R&D) as it continues to pursue its disruptive dairy- and soy-free infant formula. We leave our underlying forecasts unchanged and update our model for the fund-raising. Our mid-case 12-month DCF-based value moves to C$5.80/share due to the higher number of shares.

Sara Welford

Written by

Sara Welford

Director, Consumer

Consumer

Else Nutrition

Well funded for expansion

Capital raise

Food and beverages

29 July 2022

Price

C$0.60

Market cap

C$68m

Net cash (C$m) at 31 March 2022 (excluding restricted cash)

18.6

Shares in issue

111.8m

Free float

66%

Code

BABY

Primary exchange

Toronto Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.3)

(53.7)

(78.1)

Rel (local)

(12.3)

(49.7)

(77.3)

52-week high/low

C$3.19

C$0.56

Business description

Else Nutrition is a plant-based baby food manufacturer. Its minimally processed formula is 100% plant-based, dairy and soy free, organic, vegan, gluten free and GMO free. Else is in the process of rolling out its product beyond the US market and expanding its product offering.

Next events

Q222 results

August 2022

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Else Nutrition is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Else raised gross proceeds of C$7.35m through equity. It offered 7.004m units at C$1.05, with each unit consisting of one share and one warrant. The warrants have an exercise price of C$1.25 and an expiry date of June 2027. The company plans to use net proceeds of C$6.6m for sales and marketing and to build inventory as it expands into new geographies, and on research and development (R&D) as it continues to pursue its disruptive dairy- and soy-free infant formula. We leave our underlying forecasts unchanged and update our model for the fund-raising. Our mid-case 12-month DCF-based value moves to C$5.80/share due to the higher number of shares.

Year end

Revenue (C$m)

PBT*
(C$m)

EPS*
(C$)

DPS
(C$)

P/E
(x)

EV/sales
(x)

12/20

1.5

(8.0)

(0.10)

0.0

N/A

29.7

12/21

4.7

(15.5)

(0.16)

0.0

N/A

9.4

12/22e

13.6

(17.3)

(0.16)

0.0

N/A

3.2

12/23e

33.0

(16.8)

(0.15)

0.0

N/A

1.3

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Geographic expansion

Else has raised equity to pursue its ambitious growth plan. As detailed in our initiation note, the company launched its toddler formula in August 2020 and successfully built sales infrastructure in the US during 2021, rolling out sales online and in-store. It has expanded by launching a nutritional drink for children and, more recently, a line of baby cereals. With its Q1 results, Else announced plans to expand into Canada, Western Europe and China during H222. The roll-out into Canada is already underway. As Else expands into new geographies, it needs to set up new sales infrastructure and build inventory to service the new markets.

Infant formula on track

Else is looking to disrupt the baby and toddler nutrition market with its minimally processed, plant-based, dairy-free, soy-free formula. During Q2 Else successfully completed a second preclinical study on its infant formula, which was a further step on the path to bringing the product to market. A clinical infant growth study is expected to complete by end-FY23, with submission to the FDA filed thereafter. Management expects the overall cost of the process to be c US$5–6m. Part of the funds raised have been earmarked for R&D and will help to cover these costs.

Valuation: Mid-case 12-month value of C$5.8/share

We value Else primarily on a DCF basis and flex for different scenarios. Our base case assumes a sales CAGR of 47% in years four to 10, followed by 15% in years 11–15 and 10% in years 16–20. We assume 2.0% terminal growth and a 15% terminal EBIT margin, resulting in a mid-case 12-month value of C$5.80 (from C$6.0/share). In a more bullish scenario, assuming a faster roll-out and uptake of product, our fair value is C$10.1, and on more pessimistic assumptions our fair value is C$4.0, which still represents significant upside to current levels.

Valuation

We value Else primarily on a DCF basis, as it effectively captures the potential growth of the business and can be flexed for different scenarios. We use a 10-year standard DCF followed by a further 10-year ‘fade' or stabilisation period, before applying our terminal assumptions. Our model assumes a sales CAGR of 47% in years four to 10, followed by 15% in years 11–15 and 10% in years 16–20. We assume 2.0% terminal growth and a 15% terminal EBIT margin. This results in a 12-month DCF value of C$5.80, which we flex to C$10.1 in a bull case scenario. The current share price appears to be discounting significantly more bearish conditions than our slower roll-out scenario, discounting terminal growth of 0% and a WACC of 27%.

Else Nutrition has a unique offering and there are no direct, listed competitors operating in the plant-based space. We therefore use some of the wider plant-based peer group, although we recognise these do not directly operate in the baby and toddler nutrition space. Else’s premium for FY22 has now eroded, such that it is trading in line with the group despite its disruptive products, which is resulting in a far faster growth profile than its more mature and more established baby food competitors. We believe this offers an attractive entry point for the shares.

Exhibit 1: Peer group valuation

Market cap (m)

EV/sales (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

2022

2023

2022

2023

Nestle

CHF321,918

3.8

3.6

18.2

17.1

Danone

€37,544

1.8

1.7

11.1

10.5

Abbott Laboratories

$191,010

4.7

4.9

16.8

18.0

Perrigo

$5,645

1.6

1.5

10.9

8.7

RB

$45,666

3.9

3.8

15.0

14.2

Oatly

$2,071

2.1

1.4

N/A

N/A

Beyond Meat

$1,939

4.5

3.6

N/A

N/A

Burcon NutraScience

C$100

524.6

88.9

N/A

N/A

Peer group average*

68.4

13.7

14.4

13.7

Peer group average (ex Burcon NutraScience)*

3.2

2.9

14.4

13.7

Else

C$67

3.2

1.3

(2.7)

(3.1)

Premium/(discount) to peer group (ex Burcon)

0.9%

(54.5%)

N/A

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 26 July 2022. *The EV/EBITDA average excludes the peers with negative multiples, hence marked as N/A.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

C$'000s

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

554

1,482

4,687

13,637

32,974

60,660

Cost of Sales

(303)

(984)

(3,944)

(11,066)

(24,944)

(42,491)

Gross Profit

251

498

743

2,571

8,030

18,169

EBITDA

 

 

(2,681)

(7,768)

(15,135)

(16,367)

(14,424)

(8,510)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(2,755)

(7,961)

(15,519)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(2,370)

(15,087)

16,102

0

0

0

Share-based payments

(253)

(1,056)

(2,201)

0

0

0

Reported operating profit

(5,378)

(24,104)

(1,618)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

0

0

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2,755)

(7,961)

(15,519)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(5,378)

(24,104)

(1,618)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Reported tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,755)

(7,961)

(15,519)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(5,378)

(24,104)

(1,618)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(2,755)

(7,961)

(15,519)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,842)

Net income (reported)

(5,378)

(24,104)

(1,618)

(17,277)

(16,779)

(12,843)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

50

81

97

108

112

112

EPS - basic normalised (C$)

 

 

(0.05)

(0.10)

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.15)

(0.11)

EPS - diluted normalised (C$)

 

 

(0.05)

(0.10)

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.15)

(0.11)

EPS - basic reported (C$)

 

 

(0.11)

(0.30)

(0.02)

(0.16)

(0.15)

(0.11)

Dividend (C$)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

167.5

216.3

191.0

141.8

84.0

Gross Margin (%)

45.3

33.6

15.9

18.9

24.4

30.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

(483.9)

(524.2)

(322.9)

(120.0)

(43.7)

(14.0)

Normalised Operating Margin

(497.3)

(537.2)

(331.1)

(126.7)

(50.9)

(21.2)

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

585

881

1,784

2,414

3,838

6,230

Intangible Assets

51

395

344

344

344

344

Tangible Assets

434

253

484

1,242

2,969

6,146

Investments & other

100

233

956

828

525

(260)

Current Assets

 

 

3,944

28,438

31,138

26,398

17,838

15,545

Stocks

157

2,424

4,546

7,193

14,967

25,495

Debtors

506

369

694

4,773

9,892

18,198

Cash & cash equivalents

2,909

21,538

23,047

11,581

(9,872)

(30,999)

Other

372

4,107

2,851

2,851

2,851

2,851

Current Liabilities

 

 

(839)

(2,019)

(3,317)

(9,719)

(18,880)

(31,163)

Creditors

(301)

(1,235)

(1,898)

(8,300)

(17,461)

(29,744)

Tax and social security

(110)

(8)

(8)

(8)

(8)

(8)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(428)

(776)

(1,411)

(1,411)

(1,411)

(1,411)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(32)

(16,092)

(2,833)

(2,833)

(2,833)

(2,833)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(32)

(16,092)

(2,833)

(2,833)

(2,833)

(2,833)

Net Assets

 

 

3,658

11,208

26,772

16,260

(37)

(12,221)

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

3,658

11,208

26,772

16,260

(37)

(12,221)

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(2,681)

(7,768)

(15,135)

(16,367)

(14,424)

(8,510)

Working capital

(326)

(1,030)

(1,385)

(324)

(3,731)

(6,551)

Exceptional & other

(55)

(794)

730

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(3,062)

(9,592)

(15,790)

(16,692)

(18,155)

(15,061)

Capex

(56)

(230)

(287)

(1,364)

(3,297)

(6,066)

Acquisitions/disposals

(452)

0

0

0

0

0

Net interest

2

5

27

0

0

0

Equity financing

6,639

31,858

16,013

7,354

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(132)

(3,115)

2,265

(765)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

2,939

18,926

2,228

(11,466)

(21,453)

(21,127)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10)

(2,909)

(21,538)

(23,047)

(11,581)

9,872

FX

(40)

(297)

(719)

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

0

0

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2,909)

(21,538)

(23,047)

(11,581)

9,872

30,999

Source: company data, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Else Nutrition and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Else Nutrition. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Else Nutrition and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Else Nutrition. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Industrials

Solid State — Five-year growth target achieved

Solid State delivered record revenues and profits during FY22, with adjusted EPS rising by 29% year-on-year to 70.6p. This is well ahead of management’s own five-year target of doubling EPS to more than 60p by 2022, giving a CAGR in total shareholder return of above 20% over the five-year period. Management is now seeking to replicate or better that achievement over the next five years to 2027.

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