Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP1.08
▲ 4.00 (3.86%)
Market capitalisation
GBP309m
Research: TMT
Boku expects to report FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our and consensus forecasts, helped by strength from both the core direct carrier billing (DCB) business and rapid growth in adoption of local payment methods (LPM). The strong finish to FY23 highlights positive momentum going into FY24 and we have upgraded our forecasts, with adjusted EBITDA up 7.6% for FY23, 5.3% for FY24 and 4.8% for FY25.
Boku |
Upgrading on strong finish to FY23 |
FY23 trading update |
Software and comp services |
23 January 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Boku is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Boku expects to report FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our and consensus forecasts, helped by strength from both the core direct carrier billing (DCB) business and rapid growth in adoption of local payment methods (LPM). The strong finish to FY23 highlights positive momentum going into FY24 and we have upgraded our forecasts, with adjusted EBITDA up 7.6% for FY23, 5.3% for FY24 and 4.8% for FY25.
Year |
Revenue |
EBITDA* |
Diluted EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
12/21 |
62.1 |
22.9 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
42.4 |
21.6 |
12/22 |
63.8 |
20.5 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
50.4 |
24.2 |
12/23e |
82.7 |
27.3 |
5.8 |
0.0 |
34.4 |
18.1 |
12/24e |
95.0 |
31.7 |
6.9 |
0.0 |
29.1 |
15.6 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
FY23 revenue and EBITDA beat
Boku expects to report FY23 revenue of at least $82.7m, up 30% y-o-y or up 33% in constant currency (cc), with total payment volume (TPV) of $10.5bn up 19% y-o-y (23% cc) and the take rate increasing to 0.79% (FY22 0.72%). Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be at least $27.3m, ahead of our $25.4m forecast and consensus of $26.4m despite continued investment in the M1ST network, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 33% (+0.9pp y-o-y). After buying back shares worth $10m in FY23, gross/net cash at year-end was $151.2m, with daily average cash of $131.5m in December, up 33% y-o-y and 24% h-o-h. Boku estimates it had ‘own cash’ of c $69m at the end of the year, with the remainder cash in transit to merchants.
Growth across all parts of the business
While LPMs generated revenue of $16.9m (+153% y-o-y) as LPM monthly active users (MAU) grew 76% y-o-y to 6.7m, growth from DCB including bundling was also strong at 15% y-o-y (up from 7% growth in FY22). The growing proportion of LPM users is having a positive effect on the take rate, as LPMs attract a take rate above the group average, and LPM revenue made up 20% of group revenue, doubling from 10% in FY22.
Valuation: Growth targets not reflected
Boku is trading at a premium to its peer group on EV/EBITDA multiples for FY24, which we believe reflects downgrades to the growth outlook for certain peers. Via a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) that uses our forecasts to FY25 (which are more conservative than the company’s mid-term targets would suggest) and a WACC of 9% (down 1% since we last wrote), we estimate the share price is factoring in revenue growth of 5.6% and average EBITDA margins of 35% for FY26–32, well below the company’s targets. In a DCF factoring in meeting the targets by FY27, we estimate the shares could be worth 248p. A growing contribution from Amazon, continued adoption of LPMs and new major merchant sign-ups are the main triggers to achieve this, in our view.
FY23 trading update
The table below summarises the key performance metrics for FY23.
Exhibit 1: FY23 performance versus FY22
FY23 |
FY22 |
Growth y-o-y |
|
Revenue ($m) |
82.7 |
63.8 |
30% |
Adjusted EBITDA ($m) |
27.3 |
20.5 |
33% |
TPV ($bn) |
10.5 |
8.9 |
19% |
Take rate |
0.79% |
0.72% |
|
MAU (m) |
67.4 |
52.3 |
29% |
New users - m |
66.1 |
56.7 |
17% |
LPM: |
|||
MAUs (m) |
6.7 |
3.8 |
76% |
New users (m) |
13.8 |
8.4 |
64% |
LPM MAU/total MAU |
9.9% |
7.3% |
|
LPM new users/total new users |
20.9% |
14.8% |
|
Revenue from LPMs ($m) |
16.9 |
6.7 |
153% |
Revenue from DCB ($m) |
65.8 |
57.1 |
15% |
LPM revenue/group revenue |
20% |
10% |
Source: Boku
Changes to forecasts
We have revised our forecasts to reflect slightly stronger TPV growth and a higher take rate in all three years. We have assumed a proportion of the revenue upside is reinvested, resulting in an upgrade to our adjusted EBITDA forecasts of 7.6% for FY23, 5.3% for FY24 and 4.8% for FY25. This results in normalised diluted EPS upgrades of 9.4% for FY23, 6.5% for FY24 and 5.9% for FY25.
Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts
$m |
FY23e |
FY23e |
FY24e |
FY24e |
FY25e |
FY25e |
|||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
||
Revenue |
79.3 |
82.7 |
4.3% |
29.7% |
90.7 |
95.0 |
4.7% |
14.9% |
102.3 |
105.0 |
2.6% |
10.5% |
|
Gross profit |
76.5 |
79.8 |
4.3% |
28.7% |
87.6 |
91.7 |
4.7% |
14.8% |
98.7 |
101.3 |
2.6% |
10.5% |
|
Gross margin |
96.5% |
96.5% |
0.0% |
-0.7% |
96.5% |
96.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
96.5% |
96.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
EBITDA |
25.4 |
27.3 |
7.6% |
33.5% |
30.1 |
31.7 |
5.3% |
15.9% |
35.2 |
36.9 |
4.8% |
16.6% |
|
EBITDA margin |
32.0% |
33.0% |
3.2% |
0.9% |
33.1% |
33.3% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
34.4% |
35.2% |
2.1% |
1.8% |
|
Normalised operating profit |
20.0 |
22.0 |
9.6% |
38.9% |
24.5 |
26.1 |
6.5% |
18.7% |
29.0 |
30.7 |
5.8% |
17.6% |
|
Normalised operating margin |
25.3% |
26.6% |
1.3% |
1.8% |
27.0% |
27.5% |
0.5% |
0.9% |
28.3% |
29.2% |
0.9% |
1.8% |
|
Reported operating profit |
8.9 |
10.8 |
21.7% |
137.9% |
16.9 |
18.5 |
9.4% |
71.3% |
21.4 |
23.1 |
7.9% |
24.9% |
|
Reported operating margin |
11.2% |
13.1% |
1.9% |
5.9% |
18.6% |
19.5% |
0.8% |
6.4% |
20.9% |
22.0% |
1.1% |
2.5% |
|
Normalised PBT |
20.8 |
22.7 |
9.3% |
48.3% |
25.4 |
27.0 |
6.3% |
18.6% |
29.9 |
31.6 |
5.7% |
17.1% |
|
Reported PBT |
9.6 |
11.6 |
20.0% |
184.8% |
17.8 |
19.4 |
9.0% |
67.6% |
22.3 |
24.0 |
7.6% |
23.7% |
|
Normalised net income |
16.4 |
18.0 |
9.3% |
46.4% |
20.1 |
21.3 |
6.3% |
18.6% |
23.6 |
24.9 |
5.7% |
17.1% |
|
Reported net income |
7.9 |
9.6 |
20.7% |
-67.0% |
15.1 |
16.5 |
9.0% |
72.6% |
19.0 |
20.4 |
7.6% |
23.7% |
|
Normalised basic EPS ($) |
0.055 |
0.060 |
9.4% |
46.8% |
0.067 |
0.071 |
6.5% |
18.2% |
0.078 |
0.083 |
5.9% |
15.9% |
|
Normalised diluted EPS ($) |
0.053 |
0.058 |
9.4% |
46.8% |
0.065 |
0.069 |
6.5% |
18.2% |
0.075 |
0.080 |
5.9% |
15.9% |
|
Reported basic EPS ($) |
0.027 |
0.032 |
20.8% |
-66.9% |
0.051 |
0.055 |
9.2% |
71.9% |
0.063 |
0.068 |
7.8% |
22.5% |
|
Net debt/(cash) |
(127.4) |
(130.9) |
2.8% |
31.5% |
(159.8) |
(166.8) |
4.4% |
27.5% |
(195.2) |
(202.3) |
3.6% |
21.2% |
|
TPV ($bn) |
10.42 |
10.51 |
0.9% |
18.6% |
11.74 |
11.88 |
1.2% |
13.0% |
12.98 |
13.00 |
0.2% |
9.5% |
|
Take rate |
0.76% |
0.79% |
0.03% |
0.07% |
0.77% |
0.80% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.79% |
0.81% |
0.02% |
0.01% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
$'m |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
24.4 |
35.3 |
50.1 |
56.4 |
62.1 |
63.8 |
82.7 |
95.0 |
105.0 |
Cost of Sales |
(2.3) |
(2.5) |
(5.6) |
(4.9) |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
(2.9) |
(3.3) |
(3.7) |
||
Gross Profit |
22.1 |
32.8 |
44.6 |
51.5 |
60.5 |
62.0 |
79.8 |
91.7 |
101.3 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(2.3) |
6.3 |
10.7 |
15.3 |
22.9 |
20.5 |
27.3 |
31.7 |
36.9 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(4.0) |
4.8 |
4.5 |
11.6 |
18.6 |
15.8 |
22.0 |
26.1 |
30.7 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.6) |
(2.2) |
(1.9) |
(1.0) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
||
Exceptionals |
(2.2) |
(1.4) |
(0.3) |
(21.1) |
0.4 |
(5.1) |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(1.5) |
(4.6) |
(6.8) |
(4.9) |
(6.4) |
(5.2) |
(7.0) |
(6.4) |
(6.4) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(9.0) |
(2.4) |
(4.1) |
(16.7) |
10.6 |
4.5 |
10.8 |
18.5 |
23.1 |
||
Net Interest |
(2.4) |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(0.6) |
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(17.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(6.4) |
4.3 |
4.1 |
11.0 |
17.8 |
15.3 |
22.7 |
27.0 |
31.6 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(28.5) |
(3.0) |
(1.3) |
(17.3) |
9.9 |
4.1 |
11.6 |
19.4 |
24.0 |
Reported tax |
(0.1) |
(1.3) |
1.7 |
(1.5) |
1.9 |
0.2 |
(2.0) |
(2.9) |
(3.6) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(4.8) |
3.4 |
3.2 |
8.8 |
14.3 |
12.3 |
18.0 |
21.3 |
24.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(28.7) |
(4.3) |
0.4 |
(18.8) |
11.8 |
4.3 |
9.6 |
16.5 |
20.4 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5.5) |
24.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(4.8) |
3.4 |
3.2 |
8.8 |
14.3 |
12.3 |
18.0 |
21.3 |
24.9 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(28.7) |
(4.3) |
0.4 |
(18.8) |
6.3 |
28.9 |
9.6 |
16.5 |
20.4 |
||
Basic ave. number of shares outstanding (m) |
150.3 |
217.1 |
246.8 |
273.8 |
294.0 |
298.3 |
297.4 |
298.6 |
301.6 |
||
EPS - basic normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.03) |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
EPS - diluted normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.03) |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
EPS - basic reported ($) |
|
|
(0.19) |
(0.02) |
0.00 |
(0.07) |
0.02 |
0.10 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
Dividend ($) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
42.0 |
44.5 |
42.2 |
12.5 |
10.1 |
2.7 |
29.7 |
14.9 |
10.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
90.7 |
92.9 |
88.9 |
91.3 |
97.5 |
97.2 |
96.5 |
96.5 |
96.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
(9.5) |
17.9 |
21.3 |
27.1 |
36.9 |
32.1 |
33.0 |
33.3 |
35.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
(16.5) |
13.7 |
9.0 |
20.5 |
30.0 |
24.8 |
26.6 |
27.5 |
29.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
26.9 |
23.0 |
52.2 |
69.8 |
71.9 |
78.6 |
79.7 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
Intangible Assets |
25.8 |
22.5 |
46.8 |
65.6 |
63.1 |
56.2 |
56.7 |
57.2 |
57.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
0.4 |
0.3 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
5.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
||
Investments & other |
0.7 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
18.0 |
18.2 |
17.3 |
16.7 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
79.3 |
84.0 |
89.2 |
155.2 |
145.0 |
212.4 |
266.7 |
329.3 |
381.9 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
59.1 |
51.7 |
53.6 |
92.5 |
82.6 |
90.1 |
118.7 |
145.3 |
162.5 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
18.7 |
31.1 |
34.7 |
61.3 |
56.7 |
99.6 |
130.9 |
166.8 |
202.3 |
||
Other |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
5.8 |
22.8 |
17.2 |
17.2 |
17.2 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(78.0) |
(79.6) |
(81.8) |
(139.7) |
(122.1) |
(157.8) |
(205.1) |
(244.9) |
(270.8) |
Creditors |
(75.5) |
(77.4) |
(78.0) |
(136.8) |
(119.6) |
(156.3) |
(203.6) |
(243.4) |
(269.3) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2.5) |
(2.2) |
(2.1) |
(1.4) |
(1.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
(1.7) |
(1.4) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.2) |
(0.8) |
(2.6) |
(13.6) |
(12.3) |
(8.7) |
(9.9) |
(9.9) |
(9.9) |
Long term borrowings |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(10.8) |
(6.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.1) |
(0.8) |
(2.6) |
(2.8) |
(5.7) |
(8.7) |
(9.9) |
(9.9) |
(9.9) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
28.0 |
26.6 |
57.0 |
71.8 |
82.4 |
124.5 |
131.3 |
154.2 |
181.0 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
28.0 |
26.6 |
57.0 |
71.8 |
82.4 |
124.5 |
131.3 |
154.2 |
181.0 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(2.3) |
6.3 |
7.4 |
15.3 |
22.9 |
20.5 |
27.3 |
31.7 |
36.9 |
||
Working capital |
1.0 |
7.2 |
3.0 |
20.1 |
(7.1) |
27.9 |
18.8 |
13.2 |
8.7 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(5.5) |
0.2 |
(1.3) |
(3.8) |
(3.5) |
1.6 |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
(0.4) |
(0.3) |
(1.0) |
(2.0) |
(3.0) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(6.8) |
13.5 |
9.0 |
31.3 |
11.9 |
49.7 |
42.1 |
42.8 |
42.6 |
Capex |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(2.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.8) |
(5.3) |
(5.7) |
(6.1) |
(6.4) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.7) |
(36.6) |
0.0 |
26.5 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.9) |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(1.0) |
(0.6) |
(0.2) |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
||
Equity financing |
19.8 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
26.2 |
1.1 |
(1.4) |
(9.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(1.1) |
0.2 |
(1.5) |
(2.6) |
(6.1) |
(12.7) |
(1.7) |
(1.7) |
(1.7) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
10.6 |
13.1 |
4.857 |
13.8 |
0.5 |
56.6 |
31.3 |
36.0 |
35.4 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
9.9 |
(16.2) |
(28.9) |
(32.6) |
(49.0) |
(48.8) |
(99.6) |
(130.9) |
(166.8) |
FX |
0.4 |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
1.3 |
(0.6) |
(5.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
15.1 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
1.2 |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(16.2) |
(28.9) |
(32.6) |
(49.0) |
(48.8) |
(99.6) |
(130.9) |
(166.8) |
(202.3) |
Source: Boku, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
AFT Pharmaceuticals has announced the addition of another candidate, HY-091, to its R&D pipeline, for the management of vulvar lichen sclerosus (VLS), a skin condition with no curative treatments available. We note that HY-091 is one of the three R&D assets under diligence by AFT, with evaluation ongoing in another two. An active R&D pipeline is a key focus area for AFT, which will support management’s objective to expand its global footprint and achieve its long-term goal to have international markets represent 35% of sales (8% in FY23). HY-091 will be developed as a mucoadhesive film, an extended-release formulation of a known (albeit undisclosed) molecule, and will target alleviation of symptoms such as pain, itching and inflammation. The asset will be developed and commercialised in collaboration with Hyloris (existing partner for Maxigesic IV and HY-090) with similar collaboration terms for HY-090.