NB Private Equity Partners — Track record yet to be fully rewarded

NB Private Equity Partners (LSE: NBPE)

Last close As at 17/04/2024

1,560.00

4.00 (0.26%)

Market capitalisation

678m

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Research: Investment Companies

NB Private Equity Partners — Track record yet to be fully rewarded

NB Private Equity Partners’ (NBPE) latest NAV (as at end-July 2022) reflects an update on most private valuations from end-March to end-June 2022, which led to a very limited 2% fall in NBPE’s private portfolio fair value. This impressive resilience allowed NBPE to deliver a strong three- and five-year NAV TR to end-July 2022 of 18.6% and 15.3%, respectively (c 2x the return of MSCI World Index), led by co-investments. Despite its strong track record, NBPE’s shares still trade at a c 31% discount to NAV, wider than the average for its direct peers (although it also has a single-layer fee structure but a more diversified portfolio), which we find hard to justify. Its shares now offer an attractive 5.0% annualised yield (versus an average of 2.5% for peers).

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Investment Companies

NB Private Equity Partners

Track record yet to be fully rewarded

Investment companies
Private equity

13 September 2022

Price

1,605p

Market cap

£750.6m

NAV*

£1,091.9m

NAV*

US$1,329.1m

NAV per share*

£23.35

NAV per share*

US$28.42

Discount to NAV

31%

*As at end-July 2022.

Yield

5.0%

Shares in issue

46.8m

Code Ord/ISIN

NBPE/GG00B1ZBD492

Primary exchange

LSE

AIC sector

Private Equity

52-week high/low

US$26.18

US$15.61

US$31.97

US$26.77

Gearing

Net gearing at 31 July 2022

6.2%

Fund objective

NB Private Equity Partners invests in direct private equity investments alongside market-leading private equity firms. NB Alternatives Advisers, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Neuberger Berman, is responsible for sourcing, execution and management of NBPE. The vast majority of direct investments are made with no management fee or carried interest to third-party general partners. NBPE seeks capital appreciation through growth in net asset value while paying a biannual dividend.

Bull points

10-year NAV TR above peer average.

An attractive one-layer fee structure (as opposed to private equity funds-of-funds).

Higher diversification than direct peers.

Bear points

Timing of exits depends on GPs’ decision (but whose interests are largely aligned with NBPE).

Public markets downturn translating into lower PE deal volumes and in turn more limited exit opportunities.

Structural leverage may amplify NAV decline in a downturn scenario (although net gearing is lower than 12–24 months ago).

Analysts

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Michal Mordel

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

NB Private Equity Partners is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

NB Private Equity Partners’ (NBPE) latest NAV (as at end-July 2022) reflects an update on most private valuations from end-March to end-June 2022, which led to a very limited 2% fall in NBPE’s private portfolio fair value. This impressive resilience allowed NBPE to deliver a strong three- and five-year NAV TR to end-July 2022 of 18.6% and 15.3%, respectively (c 2x the return of MSCI World Index), led by co-investments. Despite its strong track record, NBPE’s shares still trade at a c 31% discount to NAV, wider than the average for its direct peers (although it also has a single-layer fee structure but a more diversified portfolio), which we find hard to justify. Its shares now offer an attractive 5.0% annualised yield (versus an average of 2.5% for peers).

NBPE has a long-term track record of strong NAV returns

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Total returns in sterling.

Why consider NBPE?

Strong long-term track record, leveraging the strength of the Neuberger Berman (NB) platform. Direct investments now represent more than 90% of the portfolio and have generated an IRR above 20% over the long term.

Focus on companies with long-term secular growth and lower expected cyclicality, profitable businesses in resilient sectors. Mainly invested in the US.

Co-investment strategy provides investors with the benefits of diversification, but with control over the timing of new investments to focus on the best opportunities and respond to market conditions.

Relatively wide discount despite solid performance and one-layer fee structure.

The analyst’s view

NBPE’s NAV already reflects valuations after the public market sell-off in H122, with c 77% of the portfolio now based on end-June values received so far from lead sponsors. The resulting 2% fair value reduction in private company positions compares favourably with a c 20% fall in the MSCI World Index in TR terms in Q222. We also note that NBPE expects its five full or partial exits announced in 2022 ytd (c US$110m of expected proceeds) to be closed at a 7% uplift to end-2021 carrying values, suggesting a prudent valuation approach. Its ytd NAV TR decline of 7.3% (vs the MSCI World Index’s 14.0%) was largely driven by its listed holdings (14% of portfolio), primarily those floated in 2021 at an average valuation uplift of 125%, on whose partial exits NBPE has already realised a multiple of invested capital (MOIC) of over 1.6x.

Portfolio value proves resilient to market downturn

NBPE has consistently outperformed public equity markets, with an average annual NAV TR of 16.2% (in sterling terms) over the last 10 years, according to our calculations, compared to the MSCI World Index's 13.6% pa. This is also illustrated by the much more moderate decline in the carrying value of private holdings in Q222 versus the broader equity markets, which likely comes from a combination of NBPE’s portfolio composition (see below) and technical factors that smooth out the portfolio valuations of listed private equity companies. The latter include in particular the use of valuation multiples derived from a blend of public multiples and private M&A deal multiples (the latter are usually less volatile and may lag public market downturns in the short term) and the common PE practice of valuing new investments in line with the acquisition price over the subsequent 12 months.

NBPE’s performance is slightly higher than the private equity peer average of 15.3% pa over the last 10 years, despite the period capturing NBPE’s higher exposure to income investments (with a lower return expectations) in the past. NBPE’s NAV already reflects the market downturn in H122, as opposed to its funds-of-funds peers, which (like NBPE) receive portfolio valuations from their general partners with a certain time lag. Even those who released their end-July NAV estimate still have their portfolios valued predominantly as at end-March: HarbourVest Global Private Equity (85% of portfolio value), Pantheon International (70%) and abrdn Private Equity Opportunities (98% excluding new investments). CT Private Equity Trust and ICG Enterprise Trust have their latest NAV estimates as at end-June and end-April. Among NBPE’s direct PE peers, Oakley Capital Investments and HgCapital Trust have their valuations as at end-June, while Princess Private Equity’s portfolio is valued as at end-July. The above time differences currently limit the comparability of NBPE’s returns versus peers. We also note that the ongoing charge comparison presented in Exhibit 1 considers entity-level costs only, which should be higher on a look-through basis among funds-of-funds after accounting for the second layer of fees already reflected in their NAV TR.

We note that discounts have widened generally across the PE peer group recently to 35% on average (from an average 14% in our November 2021 note), likely in anticipation of some downward portfolio revaluations. NBPE currently trades at a discount to NAV of 31% compared to an average 22% among direct investors and 42% among funds-of-funds. Given its updated portfolio valuations, a one-layer fee structure and healthy historical returns, we believe that NBPE deserves to be trading at a narrower discount than its funds-of-funds peers.

Exhibit 1: Listed private equity investment companies peer group at 8 September 2022* (in sterling terms)

% unless stated

Market
cap £m

NAV TR
1 year

NAV TR
3 year

NAV TR
5 year

NAV TR
10 year

Discount
(cum-fair)

Ongoing charge**

Perf.
fee

Net
gearing

Dividend
yield

NB Private Equity

748.1

23.9

68.5

121.4

349.0

(31.3)

2.0

Yes

108

5.1

HgCapital Trust

1,827.9

20.6

92.8

172.0

382.2

(10.0)

1.4

Yes

100

1.8

Oakley Capital Investments

721.6

42.7

104.4

190.7

293.5

(35.1)

2.2

Yes

100

1.1

Princess Private Equity

659.4

(5.3)

26.3

54.7

176.0

(21.9)

1.8

Yes

101

6.5

Direct funds average

1,069.6

19.3

74.5

139.2

283.9

(22.3)

1.8

-

100

3.1

abrdn Private Equity Opportunities

630.4

29.8

75.7

118.7

302.5

(42.3)

1.1

No***

100

3.4

CT Private Equity Trust

302.3

22.7

87.8

120.6

274.6

(36.8)

1.2

Yes

100

5.2

HarbourVest Global Private Equity

1,737.0

38.0

88.5

162.0

421.3

(47.3)

1.3

Yes

100

0.0

ICG Enterprise Trust

719.4

27.7

74.0

122.3

364.3

(40.4)

1.4

Yes

104

2.0

Pantheon International

1,420.2

32.8

64.9

116.2

296.1

(43.4)

1.2

Yes

100

0.0

Funds of funds average

961.9

30.2

78.2

127.9

331.8

(42.0)

1.2

-

101

2.1

Average (8 funds)

1,002.3

26.1

76.8

132.1

313.8

(34.6)

1.4

-

101

2.5

NBPE rank in sector

7

7

8

6

4

4

2

-

1

3

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: *12-month performance based on latest available ex-par NAV: end-July for NBPE, HarbourVest Global Private Equity, abrdn Private Equity Opportunities Trust, Pantheon International and Princess Private Equity; end-June for Oakley Capital Investments, CT Private Equity Trust and HgCapital Trust; end-April for ICG Enterprise Trust. **Ongoing charge at fund level only; does not capture the second layer of fees in the funds-of-funds subgroup. ***Performance fees paid at underlying funds level. Net gearing is total assets less cash and equivalents as a percentage of net assets. 100 = ungeared.

Two core themes: Long-term secular growth and low expected cyclicality

NBPE’s portfolio resilience in 2022 ytd has been assisted by its focus on companies which are exposed to long-term secular growth and/or have lower expected cyclicality. NBPE invests in companies that may benefit from structural changes in customer demand and are not confined to any one type of business or sector. The main secular tailwinds recognised by NB are tech-enabled services, automation, e-commerce and ageing demographics. Examples of such investments among NBPE’s top holdings are AutoStore (3% of NBPE’s portfolio at end-July 2022) and MHS (3%), which provide technology and systems for distribution centres (automated robotic storage and parcel sorting, respectively). These businesses profit from the expansion of e-commerce and the resulting demand for supply chain efficiency enhancements. Agiliti (4% of the portfolio) provides management services for medical equipment, which NB (NBPE’s investment manager) expects to grow on the back of ageing demographics and an associated increase in healthcare spending. Finally, Renaissance Learning (2% of the portfolio at end-FY21) also benefits from a long-term secular growth trend as it provides technology solutions for teachers and administrators to plan, teach and help motivate students to learn.

NBPE also looks for companies with low expected cyclicality by providing essential services, including quasi-infrastructure businesses, such as GFL (2% of portfolio value at end-May), which provides waste management systems and USI, an insurance broker and provider of consulting services (3%), or Telxius (1% at end-FY21, sold in 2022), which operates telecommunications infrastructure including fibre optic cables and telecom towers.

Part of NBPE’s portfolio shares both of the above characteristics. For instance, PetSmart Chewy (2% at end-FY21) is a retailer of pet supplies demand for which may be more resistant to a downturn, while strongly focused on the e-commerce channel through its Chewy subsidiary. Further examples include Cotiviti (2% at end-July), which develops payment accuracy and solutions for the healthcare industry, and Kroll (formerly Duff & Phelps, 3% at end-July), a leading provider of diversified professional and business services, including valuation, risk management and bankruptcy administration.

Exhibit 2: NBPE’s approach to its two core themes

Source: NBPE

High exposure to US and broad sector diversification

As at end-July 2022, NBPE’s portfolio consisted of 95 direct co-investments, which made up 91% of its portfolio and are the powerhouse of NBPE’s returns. The remainder of the portfolio are gradually diminishing exposures to private debt (8%) and legacy fund exposures (1%). The portfolio is diversified across sectors, with the largest exposures to TMT (21%) and consumer (20%). However, we should highlight that sector exposures are skewed towards the secular growth trends within them. NBPE disclosed that 47% of its TMT holdings at end-May were software companies (including several SaaS businesses) and 18% were tech services businesses. Furthermore, 53% of its industrials exposure was attributable to industrial technology companies MHS and AutoStore (see above). Finally, consumer exposure is heavily skewed towards e-commerce companies.

In addition, the portfolio is allocated predominantly to the US (72% of portfolio companies are North American), which may prove beneficial compared to its Europe-investing peers in the current environment. While the impact of the unravelling recession and rising geopolitical tensions is currently difficult to predict, we note that the US is not subject to the same energy security risks as Europe. Nevertheless, amid potentially rising energy prices globally, NB highlights that energy is not a significant input cost across the portfolio and that many of its portfolio companies provide critical solutions to their clients.

Exhibit 3: Portfolio split by sector

Exhibit 4: Portfolio split by geography

Source: NBPE as at end-July 2022

Source: NBPE at end-July 2022

Exhibit 3: Portfolio split by sector

Source: NBPE as at end-July 2022

Exhibit 4: Portfolio split by geography

Source: NBPE at end-July 2022

Following its strong performance in FY21, NBPE has US$367m available capital (28% compared to its NAV), which consists of US$67m in cash and a US$300m credit facility (fully undrawn as at end-July). In the bull market, NBPE enhanced its returns through structural leverage in the form of two series of zero dividend preference (ZDP) shares (US$149m in total as at end-July). NBPE intends to repay the first ZDP series on maturity on 30 September 2022 (the other series matures in 2024), which should leave it with ample liquidity to pursue new investments. Although the company has remained cautious so far in 2022 (with only one US$26m co-investment), its investment manager is actively reviewing new investment opportunities.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by NB Private Equity Partners and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by NB Private Equity Partners. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by NB Private Equity Partners and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by NB Private Equity Partners. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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