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Thin Film Electronics — Update 17 August 2016

Thin Film Electronics — Update 17 August 2016

Thin Film Electronics

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

Thin Film Electronics

R2R game changers

Q216 results

Tech hardware & equipment

17 August 2016

ADR research

Price

$5.57

Market cap

$379m

ADR/Ord conversion ratio 1:10

Net cash ($m) at end-Q216

36.8

ADRs in issue

68.0

ADR Code

TFECY

ADR exchange

OTCQX

Underlying exchange

Oslo

Depository

BNY Mellon

ADR share price performance

52-week high/low

$7.34

$2.52

Business description

Thin Film Electronics (Thinfilm) commercializes printed electronics and owns key patents for printing rewritable, non-volatile memory and printable NFC circuits. It also licenses technology from others to develop complete printed systems.

Next events

Q316 results

4 November 2016

Q416 results

24 February 2017

Analysts

Anna Bossong

+44 (0)20 3077 5737

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Thin Film Electronics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

During Q216 Thin Film Electronics (Thinfilm) continued to build on the list of top brands looking to incorporate its NFC tags into their products. New partners include craft beer seller Hopsy, an Italian luxury bag producer and a Fortune 500 pharma producer. Helped by a trial product order for medical devices for the latter, Thinfilm reported 25% y-o-y sales revenue growth in Q2. For us, the one area of disappointment was that the growth in partnerships has not yet translated into volume orders capable of filling the expanded capacity of the plant (fab). Does it matter? Most probably not – the prize for investors is what happens from 2018 onwards. Here we believe that our forecasts could significantly understate earnings, especially if Thinfilm can leverage its expanded salesforce and reduced price points, enabled by low R2R manufacturing costs, into a major slice of the burgeoning NFC market.

Year end

Revenue ($m)

PTP*
($m)

EPADR
(c)

DPADR
(c)

EV/Sales
(x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Gross Yield
(%)

12/14

4.5

(24.2)

(48.9)

0.0

76.0

N/A

N/A

12/15

4.4

(28.3)

(52.9)

0.0

77.7

N/A

N/A

12/16e

6.0

(35.6)

(57.6)

0.0

57.0

N/A

N/A

12/17e

38.6

(33.7)

(49.5)

0.0

8.9

N/A

N/A

12/18e

196.2

15.2

22.4

0.0

1.7

15.6

N/A

Source: Converted at NOK 8.2192/US$1 Note: Dividend yield excludes withholding tax. Investors should consult their tax advisor regarding the application of any domestic and foreign tax laws.

Thinfilm focuses on R&D and sales expansion in Q2

In Q2 Thinfilm’s strategic focus switched to boosting the group’s sales capabilities and moving forward with R&D and the transition to R2R manufacturing. It ploughed $5.2m into expensed R&D (vs $2.6m in Q116) and increased staff (particularly sales staff) numbers in the US. This increased cash burn to $12.8m in Q2, compared with $8-9.5m in the previous four quarters. Nevertheless, the group finished the quarter with a still healthy $36.8m cash balance.

R2R plant capacity potential uprated

Management’s current guidance for the construction of a 1bn unit capacity roll-to-roll (R2R) plant in 2017 is for capex of $20-25m plus $8m in capitalized opex. It is now looking at potentially trebling the bed width of the facility to enable the construction of a 2bn unit plant for $18m cost or a 7bn unit plant for $32m, which we believe would be positive for the group valuation. With a 50x increase in batch sizes and thinner substrates, management is indicating that front-end production costs may be cut by c 90% from current levels. Lower price points and higher production capacity could lead to a step change in earnings from 2018.

Valuation: Forecast revisions reduce valuation

Thinfilm ADRs have outperformed the NASDAQ Composite by 18% over the last year, helped by positive newsflow from major customer signings and increased focus globally on NFC products. Our DCF valuation has remained broadly unchanged at $9.07 (previously $9.06) per ADR following revisions to our forecasts and currency moves.

Q2 results and forecasts update

Interim results: Focus on boosting R&D and sales team

The key points from the Q2 results are:

■

Product sales became a driver of growth in Q2, with sales revenues growing 25% to $597k. Revenues were boosted by trial product deliveries under a new agreement with a global pharmaceutical company, as well as delivery of the final 1.8m units from the 13m unit Nedap electronic article surveillance (EAS) order from 2015. Lumpy government grant revenues kept headline revenue growth to a more moderate 10%.

■

Management took advantage of increased equity funding to accelerate expensed R&D, which is currently focused on the development of printed batteries and displays and R2R printing processes. Running the fab at full capacity to test these processes resulted in $5.3m in expensed R&D in Q2 (equal to 50% of total costs) compared with $2.7m in Q1.

■

Payroll costs also rose sharply in Q2, up 35% y-o-y, reflecting increased uptake of higher-cost staff in the US. The main focus was a boost to the sales and business development teams which we see as key to monetizing the recent 24m unit increase in annual production.

■

Cash burn in Q2 increased to $12.8m from $8.4m in Q1, principally due to the above-mentioned increase in R&D spending and employee hiring. We forecast that cash on the balance sheet at the mid-year point of $36.8m should be sufficient to fund the company through to at least Q117, after which time another equity raising is likely to be sought.

Exhibit 1: Interim results summary

US$000s

Q216

Q215

Change y-o-y (%)

H116

H115

Change y-o-y (%)

Q116

Sales revenue

597

478

25.0

747

731

2.2

150

Other Operating revenue

483

492

(1.7)

1,040

872

19.3

557

Other Income

105

107

(1.9)

209

172

21.5

104

Total revenue

1,186

1,077

10.1

1,997

1,775

12.5

811

Payroll

(5,146)

(3,797)

35.5

(9,794)

(8,021)

22.1

(4,648)

Share-based payments

(413)

(352)

17.3

(599)

(393)

52.4

(186)

Premises, supplies

(2,507)

(1,557)

61.0

(4,986)

(2,945)

69.3

(2,479)

Other operating costs

(2,492)

(2,032)

22.6

(4,408)

(3,521)

25.2

(1,916)

Total operating costs

(10,558)

(7,738)

36.4

(19,787)

(14,880)

33.0

(9,229)

of which expensed R&D

(5,266)

(2,646)

99.0

(7,916)

(4,084)

93.8

(2,650)

EBITDA

(9,372)

(6,661)

40.7

(17,790)

(13,105)

35.8

(8,418)

EBITDA (normalized)

(8,959)

(6,309)

42.0

(17,191)

(12,712)

35.2

(8,232)

D&A

(684)

(308)

122.1

(1,236)

(652)

89.6

(552)

Reported operating profit

(10,056)

(6,969)

44.3

(19,026)

(13,757)

38.3

(8,970)

Net financial items

(454)

53

NA

0

0

NA

(967)

PBT

(10,510)

(6,916)

52.0

(20,447)

(13,644)

49.9

(9,937)

Tax

(1)

0

NA

0

0

NA

(299)

Profit (loss) for the period

(10,511)

(6,916)

52.0

(20,747)

(13,644)

52.1

(10,236)

Normalized profit (loss) for the period

(10,098)

(6,564)

53.8

(20,148)

(13,251)

52.1

(10,050)

Normalized loss per ADR ($)

0.149

0.122

22.1

0.311

0.251

24.1

0.163

Net cash

36,809

36,291

1.4

36,809

36,291

1.4

49,122

Cash flow from operations

(11,516)

(6,817)

68.9

(17,769)

(12,111)

46.7

(6,253)

Cash burn (CF from ops and investments)

(12,827)

(8,406)

52.6

(20,852)

(14,094)

48.0

(8,024)

Purchases of PPE

(945)

(1,055)

(10.5)

(2,645)

(1,497)

76.7

(1,700)

Source: Thin Film Electronics

Our view

In our original 2016 forecast we had looked for a sharper ramp-up in sales in Q2 to $880k on increased field sample sales and new order inflows, particularly from Nedap for EAS tags. With Q2 sales revenue a shade below $600k and the order book light of volume orders that the company could use to generate sharply higher revenues in H2, we have reduced our 2016 and 2017 revenue and earnings forecasts (see below).

We are not concerned by the increased cost levels. We see the R&D spend and increased outlays on sales staff, in particular, as important building blocks to secure the group’s future.

Change in forecasts: Trimming H216 production ramp outlook

We have cut our revenue and earnings expectations for 2016, reflecting delays to volume order inflows. While we believe this may have to be reversed if major orders materialize in the next few weeks – not least from the many leading companies currently trialing the product (Diageo, Constantia, Jones Packaging, Ypsomed, Ferngrove, etc) – we have for now reduced our 2016 revenue forecast for NFC OpenSense products from $4.6m to $1m. For 2017 we have cut our NFC OpenSense unit sales and revenues forecast by 25%, to 82m and $29.8m respectively reflecting the delay in volume ramp-up.

Similarly, whereas we had assumed a 10m unit follow-up order for (EAS) tags from Nedap from Q316, we now assume a follow-up order later this quarter, with 4m sales in Q4 after the 1.8m in Q2, reducing our full year EAS sales expectation from $2.3m to $0.4m.

Additionally, with Xerox label sales having no material impact on Q2 sales, we have cut our sales assumption for 2016 from 180m to 120m units, reducing revenues from $1.1m to $720k. For 2017, we have maintained our assumption of 1bn unit sales, giving rise to licence fee revenues of $4.5m.

With the high level of interest from brands and packaging companies and lower potential pricing points from the new R2R plant, we expect higher order flows to put revenues and earnings back on track in 2018, with a 0.3% higher operating margin assumed on the back of the additional cost savings now envisaged by the new R2R line configuration.

Exhibit 2: Change in earnings forecast

Revenue ($m)

EBITDA* ($m)

EPADR (c)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2015

4.4

 

 

(29.2)

 

 

(52.9)

 

 

2016e

12.0

6.0

(50.1)

(30.6)

(33.8)

10.3

(52.7)

(57.6)

9.3

2017e

48.3

38.6

(20.0)

(24.2)

(29.2)

20.3

(42.5)

(49.5)

16.4

2018e

196.2

196.2

(0.0)

21.0

21.9

3.9

21.6

22.4

3.7

Source: Edison Investment Research, Thin Film Electronics. Note: *Normalized.

Valuation sensitivity

Exhibit 3: DCF sensitivity analysis – forecast revenue from 2018 and WACC ($/ADR)

Actual revenue as % of current forecast revenue

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

WACC

12%

4.92

6.98

9.04

11.11

13.17

15.23

17.30

19.36

13%

4.21

6.04

7.86

9.69

11.52

13.34

15.17

17.00

14%

3.64

5.27

6.91

8.54

10.18

11.81

13.44

15.08

15%

3.17

4.65

6.12

7.59

9.07

10.54

12.02

13.49

16%

2.78

4.12

5.46

6.80

8.14

9.48

10.82

12.16

17%

2.45

3.68

4.90

6.13

7.35

8.58

9.80

11.02

Source: Edison Investment Research

Our DCF valuation for Thinfilm was not significantly affected by the reduction in our 2016 and 2017 revenue forecasts, as in our model the bulk of Thinfilm’s DCF value lies in cash flows generated post 2017. In view of the significant uncertainty about the timing and volume of future order flows, we show above a sensitivity table showing the impact on our DCF value of alternative revenue and WACC assumptions, assuming fixed cash costs at 13% of total. This shows that the DCF of the company would fall 32% on a 20% shortfall in forecast revenues, but a 3pp reduction in WACC to 12%, potentially on greater confidence about revenue outcomes, would largely offset this impact.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

US$000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year-end December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

1,897

4,479

4,413

6,003

38,623

196,150

EBITDA

 

 

(10,420)

(23,550)

(29,187)

(33,756)

(29,154)

21,851

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(10,688)

(24,855)

(30,724)

(35,943)

(32,868)

17,098

Intangible Amortization

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(2,154)

0

0

0

0

0

Share-based payments

(847)

(941)

(1,064)

(1,092)

(1,359)

(1,506)

Operating Profit

(13,689)

(25,796)

(31,788)

(37,035)

(34,227)

15,592

Net Interest

274

701

2,406

329

(795)

(1,874)

Pre-tax profit (norm)

 

 

(10,415)

(24,155)

(28,318)

(35,614)

(33,663)

15,223

Pre-tax profit (FRS 3)

 

 

(13,416)

(25,096)

(29,382)

(36,705)

(35,022)

13,718

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(10,415)

(24,155)

(28,318)

(35,614)

(33,663)

15,223

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(13,416)

(25,096)

(29,382)

(36,705)

(35,022)

13,718

Average Number of ADRs Outstanding (m)

41.3

49.3

53.5

61.8

68.0

68.0

EPADR - normalized (c)

 

 

(25.2)

(48.9)

(52.9)

(57.6)

(49.5)

22.4

EPADR - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(32.5)

(50.9)

(54.9)

(59.4)

(51.5)

20.2

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

11.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

8.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

3,112

7,189

10,390

24,320

37,606

40,853

Intangible Assets

0

2,319

2,602

2,720

2,720

2,720

Tangible Assets

3,112

4,870

7,788

21,601

34,887

38,134

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

45,121

33,870

19,425

12,840

20,109

40,674

Stocks

0

451

367

499

1,207

1,290

Debtors

1,318

2,565

3,118

3,393

10,582

37,618

Cash

43,803

30,854

15,940

8,947

8,321

1,766

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(5,865)

(4,748)

(5,170)

(6,093)

(60,311)

(68,899)

Creditors

(5,865)

(4,748)

(5,170)

(6,093)

(10,311)

(28,899)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

(50,000)

(40,000)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

42,367

36,311

24,645

31,067

(2,596)

12,627

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(7,905)

(24,079)

(26,036)

(33,240)

(32,831)

13,319

Net Interest

234

569

146

570

(795)

(1,874)

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(2,487)

(3,217)

(4,751)

(16,118)

(17,000)

(8,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(2,700)

(799)

0

0

0

Financing

48,560

16,477

16,527

41,796

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

38,402

(12,949)

(14,914)

(6,993)

(50,626)

3,445

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,401)

(43,803)

(30,854)

(15,940)

(8,947)

41,679

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(43,803)

(30,854)

(15,940)

(8,947)

41,679

38,234

Source: Thin Film Electronics accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
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Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Thin Film Electronics and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Germany

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

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Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Thin Film Electronics — Update 17 August 2016

Thin Film Electronics

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