Strong total returns continue through Q318
Picton’s unaudited net asset value increased to £477.4m at 31 December 2017 or by 2.7p (3.1%) to 88.6p. A summary of the movement is provided in Exhibit 1, with some rounding of the per share values. The 0.825p dividend paid in the quarter was 126% covered by net income, while a 2.1% like-for-like investment property valuation contributed £13.6m (c 2.5p per share), with capex and a small disposal taking the total movement in property values to £13.2m. The “other” NAV movement of c £0.8m includes the repurchase of 1,070,000 shares for the Employee Benefit Trust to satisfy future vesting awards made under the company’s long-term incentive plan and has no impact on the NAV per share movement in the period.
Exhibit 1: Summary of NAV movement in the quarter
|
£m |
Per share (p) |
Movement per share (p) |
NAV at 30 September 2017 |
463.8 |
85.9 |
|
Movement in property values |
13.2 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
Net income after tax for the period |
5.8 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
Dividends paid |
(4.6) |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
Other |
(0.8) |
- |
- |
NAV at 31 December 2017 |
477.4 |
88.6 |
2.7 |
Source: Picton, Edison Investment Research
As previously indicated, the DPS declared in respect of Q318 has been increased by c 3% to 8.75p and will be paid on 28 February 2018. This represents an annualised DPS of 3.5p.
The company has made clear that it intends to bring forward proposals later in the year for conversion to UK REIT status and will at the same time seek to change its technical listing status to that of a commercial company. These changes are not expected to have any impact on Picton’s investment or portfolio strategy, and there no plans to change the quarterly reporting or dividend cycle. We note that prospective dividend cover under the current corporate structure is c 1.2x, which suggests to us that there may be scope for the payout to increase; for now, management is indicating that it will review dividend policy again if and when REIT conversion takes place.
Portfolio activity was light during the period, with one non-core property sold for £0.6m, in line with the September (H118) valuation, but 35% ahead of the March valuation. The period saw five lettings, seven rent reviews and five lease renewals completed, securing additional annualised rent income of £0.26m, on average 1.9% of the expected rental value (ERV). Occupancy across the portfolio was maintained at 95% during the period. In September, the full occupancy ERV was £47.6m compared with the annualised contracted rental value at the time of £41.6m. Although not updated at Q3, we believe that much of this income potential remains, after allowing for ERV growth and leasing activity in the quarter and since. Picton recently announced that in Q418 it has secured two new occupiers at Tower Wharf in Bristol, the Grade A office building that it acquired for £23.15m in August 2017. These take occupancy at Tower Wharf to more than 90% from 64% at the time of the acquisition, and represent a combined annual rent of £0.54m, equivalent to £28.50 per sqft and 4% ahead of the September ERV.
The 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth in Q318 was driven by the industrial (3.5%) and office (2.2%) assets, where Picton is over-weighted, representing more than three-quarters of the portfolio. The retail and leisure assets saw a negative 0.5% valuation movement. The leasing progress at Tower Wharf is a positive indicator for the year-end valuation.
Our forecasts already anticipate some leasing progress and for now we make no change to our expected income earnings. The £13.6m Q318 revaluation movement was well ahead of the £5.0m that we had allowed for in H218 as a whole. We have increased the H218 assumption to £15.0m, with a positive impact on EPRA NAV per share.
Exhibit 2: Forecast changes
|
Revenue (£m) |
Adj. EPRA EPS (p) |
EPRA NAV/share (p) |
DPS (p) |
|
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
FY18e |
43.2 |
43.2 |
0.0 |
4.11 |
4.11 |
0.0 |
87.2 |
89.0 |
2.1 |
3.43 |
3.43 |
0.0 |
FY19e |
44.5 |
44.5 |
0.0 |
4.29 |
4.29 |
0.0 |
89.9 |
91.7 |
2.1 |
3.53 |
3.53 |
0.0 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
The increase in the investment portfolio value in Q3 contributed towards a reduction in gearing in Q318, with the net LTV reducing to 27.4% from 28.2% in September. The company continues to look for investment opportunities and has £39m of borrowing headroom available from its revolving credit facilities.
While Picton has a strong income focus, it also chooses to reinvest into the portfolio in ways designed to support occupancy and income growth with the specific goal of enhancing total return. It has a built a strong and consistent record of property returns (income and capital) over a number of years and has outperformed its MSCI IPD Quarterly Benchmark over one, three, five and 10 years to September 2017 (a Q318 benchmark comparison is not yet available). In Exhibit 3 we show a summary valuation comparison of Picton and what we consider to be its closest peers.
Exhibit 3: Peer comparison
|
Price
(p) |
Market cap
(£m) |
NAVPS*
(p) |
DPS**
(p) |
P/NAV
(x) |
Yield
(%) |
EPIC |
109.4 |
230 |
111.0 |
5.75 |
0.99 |
5.3 |
F&C Commercial Property |
141.4 |
1,130 |
140.0 |
6.00 |
1.01 |
4.2 |
F&C UK Real Estate Investments |
106.0 |
255 |
104.9 |
5.00 |
1.01 |
4.7 |
Custodian REIT |
115.6 |
437 |
104.9 |
6.45 |
1.10 |
5.6 |
Regional REIT |
101.6 |
379 |
104.4 |
7.85 |
0.97 |
7.7 |
Schroders REIT |
65.0 |
337 |
65.7 |
2.48 |
0.99 |
3.8 |
Standard Life Investment Property |
96.9 |
383 |
86.0 |
4.76 |
1.13 |
4.9 |
UK Commercial Property Trust |
90.0 |
1,169 |
90.4 |
3.68 |
1.00 |
4.1 |
Average |
|
|
100.9 |
|
1.02 |
5.0 |
Picton Property Income |
86.0 |
464 |
88.6 |
3.50 |
0.97 |
4.1 |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: *Last published NAV. **Prospective yield. Data as at 25 January 2018.
Picton’s 4.1% prospective yield compares with a c 5.0% simple average for the peer group, while its c 3% discount to last published NAV positions it at a discount. It would appear to us that Picton is being valued as if its immediate income distributions are structural (whereas they could be increased given the dividend cover), without giving obvious credit for the potential to further grow that income or to continue to enhance total returns through continued investment. The market does not appear to be anticipating a continuation of its historical relative property return outperformance and is certainly not pricing in achievement of management’s goal of being sustainably one of the best performing, diversified listed property companies on the main market.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
Year end 31 March |
|
£'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
|
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
31,967 |
35,151 |
40,770 |
47,911 |
43,217 |
44,515 |
Service charge income |
|
|
4,782 |
4,511 |
5,153 |
6,487 |
6,083 |
6,265 |
Total revenue |
|
|
36,749 |
39,662 |
45,923 |
54,398 |
49,300 |
50,781 |
Gross property expenses |
|
|
(8,992) |
(9,320) |
(10,001) |
(12,011) |
(11,422) |
(11,570) |
Net rental income |
|
|
27,757 |
30,342 |
35,922 |
42,387 |
37,878 |
39,211 |
Administrative expenses |
|
|
(1,139) |
(1,194) |
(1,510) |
(1,613) |
(1,982) |
(2,116) |
Operating Profit before revaluations |
|
|
26,618 |
29,148 |
34,412 |
40,774 |
35,896 |
37,095 |
Revaluation of investment properties |
|
|
18,422 |
53,163 |
44,171 |
15,087 |
32,362 |
10,000 |
Profit on disposals |
|
|
5,660 |
412 |
799 |
1,847 |
2,488 |
0 |
Management expenses |
|
|
(2,127) |
(2,591) |
(2,901) |
(3,636) |
(3,660) |
(3,752) |
Operating Profit |
|
|
48,573 |
80,132 |
76,481 |
54,072 |
67,086 |
43,343 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(10,868) |
(10,930) |
(11,417) |
(10,823) |
(9,753) |
(9,718) |
Profit Before Tax |
|
|
37,705 |
69,202 |
65,064 |
43,249 |
57,333 |
33,625 |
Taxation |
|
|
(357) |
(347) |
(216) |
(499) |
(614) |
(673) |
Profit After Tax |
|
|
37,348 |
68,855 |
64,848 |
42,750 |
56,719 |
32,953 |
Profit After Tax (EPRA) |
|
|
13,266 |
15,280 |
19,878 |
20,566 |
22,191 |
23,153 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
|
359.9 |
445.3 |
540.1 |
540.1 |
540.1 |
540.1 |
EPS (p) |
|
|
10.38 |
15.46 |
12.01 |
7.92 |
10.50 |
6.10 |
Adj EPRA EPS (p) |
|
|
3.69 |
3.43 |
3.68 |
3.81 |
4.11 |
4.29 |
Dividends paid per share (p) |
|
|
3.000 |
3.000 |
3.300 |
3.325 |
3.425 |
3.525 |
Dividend cover (x) |
|
|
1.23 |
1.14 |
1.12 |
1.15 |
1.20 |
1.22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
421,393 |
536,898 |
649,406 |
618,391 |
671,446 |
684,946 |
Investment properties |
|
|
417,207 |
532,926 |
646,018 |
615,170 |
668,279 |
681,779 |
Other non-current assets |
|
|
4,186 |
3,972 |
3,388 |
3,221 |
3,167 |
3,167 |
Current Assets |
|
|
42,879 |
84,111 |
37,408 |
49,960 |
47,764 |
49,516 |
Debtors |
|
|
10,527 |
14,019 |
14,649 |
16,077 |
16,771 |
17,391 |
Cash |
|
|
32,352 |
70,092 |
22,759 |
33,883 |
30,993 |
32,125 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(17,369) |
(17,480) |
(47,521) |
(21,171) |
(21,163) |
(21,783) |
Creditors/Deferred income |
|
|
(14,434) |
(16,468) |
(18,430) |
(20,067) |
(20,035) |
(20,655) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(2,935) |
(1,012) |
(29,091) |
(1,104) |
(1,128) |
(1,128) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(232,807) |
(233,559) |
(222,161) |
(205,255) |
(217,185) |
(217,185) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(231,081) |
(231,834) |
(220,444) |
(203,540) |
(215,470) |
(215,470) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(1,726) |
(1,725) |
(1,717) |
(1,715) |
(1,715) |
(1,715) |
Net Assets |
|
|
214,096 |
369,970 |
417,132 |
441,925 |
480,862 |
495,494 |
Net Assets excluding goodwill and deferred tax |
|
|
214,096 |
369,970 |
417,132 |
441,925 |
480,862 |
495,494 |
NAV/share (p) |
|
|
56.4 |
68.5 |
77.2 |
81.8 |
89.0 |
91.7 |
EPRA NAV/share (p) |
|
|
56.4 |
68.5 |
77.2 |
81.8 |
89.0 |
91.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
23,145 |
24,705 |
33,283 |
36,283 |
32,055 |
34,083 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(8,768) |
(8,695) |
(8,836) |
(9,211) |
(9,381) |
(9,718) |
Tax |
|
|
(394) |
(369) |
(426) |
(232) |
(530) |
(673) |
Net cash from investing activities |
|
|
(10,838) |
(61,729) |
(68,123) |
48,691 |
(18,278) |
(3,524) |
Ordinary dividends paid |
|
|
(10,711) |
(13,102) |
(17,822) |
(17,957) |
(18,497) |
(19,037) |
Debt drawn/(repaid) |
|
|
(1,031) |
(3,191) |
14,591 |
(46,450) |
11,741 |
0 |
Proceeds from shares issued |
|
|
18,043 |
100,121 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other cash flow from financing activities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
9,446 |
37,740 |
(47,333) |
11,124 |
(2,890) |
1,132 |
Opening cash |
|
|
22,906 |
32,352 |
70,092 |
22,759 |
33,883 |
30,993 |
Closing cash |
|
|
32,352 |
70,092 |
22,759 |
33,883 |
30,993 |
32,125 |
Closing debt |
|
|
(234,016) |
(232,846) |
(249,535) |
(204,644) |
(216,598) |
(216,598) |
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
(201,664) |
(162,754) |
(226,776) |
(170,761) |
(185,605) |
(184,473) |
Net LTV |
|
|
|
|
34.6% |
27.3% |
27.4% |
26.7% |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). 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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
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