Q3 results reveal that SNP is stabilising after the July profit warning. While underlying revenues showed a small contraction, profits recovered strongly. This indicates that cost saving measures are beginning to have an impact. Additionally, SNP has recently won several small S/4HANA migration contracts, which indicates that the S/4HANA business is beginning to gain momentum. We have increased our FY18 profits forecasts while maintaining revenues. While the shares look punchy on c 23x our FY19e earnings, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.
Written by
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
Strong Q3 profits recovery |
Q3 results |
Software & comp services |
2 November 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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Q3 results reveal that SNP is stabilising after the July profit warning. While underlying revenues showed a small contraction, profits recovered strongly. This indicates that cost saving measures are beginning to have an impact. Additionally, SNP has recently won several small S/4HANA migration contracts, which indicates that the S/4HANA business is beginning to gain momentum. We have increased our FY18 profits forecasts while maintaining revenues. While the shares look punchy on c 23x our FY19e earnings, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
80.7 |
6.0 |
100.4 |
39.0 |
16.0 |
2.4 |
12/17 |
122.3 |
3.8 |
61.9 |
0.0 |
25.9 |
0.0 |
12/18e |
137.9 |
(1.1) |
(19.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
12/19e |
153.4 |
5.9 |
70.7 |
30.0 |
22.7 |
1.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
9M18 results: Nine-month adjusted EBITDA of €0.8m
9M18 revenue rose by 22% to €98.8m, including €18.5m from acquisitions and a c 1% organic contraction. Adjusted EBITDA expanded to €0.8m in 9M18 from a loss of €1.7m in H118. SNP increased its FY18 profit guidance but maintained revenue guidance. In H2, SNP initiated a globally oriented programme to improve efficiencies, with a focus on improving cost structures and increasingly concentrating on free cash flow.
SAP S/4HANA contracts are beginning to flow
SNP has recently won several small S/4HANA migrations, including with Volkswagen Saxony, a wholly owned subsidiary of Volkswagen.
Proposed capital increase via subscription rights
In August, SNP said that it was making preparations for a capital increase in Q418. Shareholders will be entitled to apply for new shares that will result in the issue of up to 1.127m new bearer shares. While SNP does not require the funds immediately, the money will provide the group with extra financial flexibility.
Forecasts: FY18 profits upgrade
We have increased our FY18 operating profit forecast to break-even, in line with guidance, from a €2.8m loss. While we have retained our revenues, we have amended the split. We have reduced our capex and depreciation forecasts. We now forecast the group to end FY18 with net debt of €40.2m (previously €42.8m).
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
The stock trades on c 23x our earnings in FY19e, falling to c 12x in FY20e. Our discounted cash flow valuation (based on c 7% organic revenue CAGR over 10 years, 10% WACC, 14.8% long-term margin and 2% terminal growth) is €32/share, double the current share price. Increasing the organic revenue CAGR to 10% increases the valuation to c €44/share, with other variables remaining constant.
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
Q3 results: Q3 adjusted EBITDA was €2.5m
Revenue for the first nine months of 2018 (9M18) rose by 22% to €98.8m, including €18.5m from acquisitions and a c 1% organic contraction. This compared with a 2% organic gain in H1, although the company has not divulged exchange rate impacts on revenues. The main considerations are the US$, which has weakened by 7% against the euro (9M18 vs 9M17) and strengthened by 1% (Q318 vs Q317) and the Argentine peso, which has plummeted. Professional services fared well, with 9M18 organic revenues down 3.9%, compared with 6.0% at the halfway stage. Adjusted EBITDA rose to €0.8m in 9M18 from a loss of €1.7m in H1. Statutory IFRS EBITDA was €0.3m lower at €0.5m, as a €2m benefit from a reduction in the earnout for Adepcon was more than cancelled by €2.1m in restructuring costs, €1.8m of which was incurred in H1, along with €0.2m of currency-related factors.
Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose to €2.5m (7.4% margin) from a loss in Q2 and small profit in Q317. The Q3 IFRS EBITDA was a record €4.0m, boosted by a €1.5m reduction in the earnout for Adepcon. The renewed profitability was aided by the recent restructurings and consequently significantly improved utilisation rates. Headcount stood at 1,324 at end-September, down from 1,350 at end June and 1,363 at end-March.
€2.4m was spent on acquisitions during the quarter, which related to Harlex and the final 20% of Innoplexia. Capex costs were relatively subdued at €2.4m. Net debt fell by €3.0m to €32.8m from €35.8m at end June. This was largely due to the reduction in the Adepcon earnout.
SNP increased its FY18 profit guidance (both statutory and adjusted EBITDA in the low- to mid-single digit million range) while maintaining revenue guidance (€135-140m).
Exhibit 1: Quarterly analysis
€000s |
Q117 |
Q217 |
Q317 |
Q417 |
FY17 |
Q118 |
Q218 |
Q318 |
Q418e |
FY18e |
FY19e |
Professional services |
19,089 |
22,151 |
25,936 |
31,157 |
98,333 |
25,441 |
26,867 |
25,996 |
26,547 |
104,851 |
117,267 |
Cloud |
|
|
|
|
|
424 |
565 |
1,158 |
1,200 |
3,347 |
3,665 |
Licences |
1,733 |
3,042 |
5,935 |
8,389 |
19,099 |
3,697 |
3,888 |
4,408 |
9,204 |
21,197 |
23,211 |
Maintenance |
776 |
1,237 |
1,140 |
1,758 |
4,911 |
1,991 |
2,172 |
2,165 |
2,171 |
8,499 |
9,306 |
Total revenue |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
33,492 |
33,727 |
39,123 |
137,895 |
153,449 |
Other operating income* |
235 |
295 |
171 |
1,217 |
1,918 |
833 |
1,015 |
2,391 |
|
|
|
Cost of materials |
(2,260) |
(3,244) |
(7,037) |
(6,674) |
(19,215) |
(5,135) |
(5,346) |
(6,050) |
|
|
|
Personnel costs |
(14,657) |
(15,511) |
(18,849) |
(22,455) |
(71,472) |
(21,363) |
(23,010) |
(19,184) |
|
|
|
Other operating expenses |
(6,692) |
(6,461) |
(7,156) |
(9,626) |
(29,935) |
(7,183) |
(7,875) |
(6,738) |
|
|
|
Impairments on receivables etc |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(225) |
(13) |
|
|
|
Other taxes |
(28) |
(277) |
(32) |
(196) |
(533) |
(118) |
(137) |
(95) |
|
|
|
Exceptional items |
200 |
1,700 |
500 |
1,200 |
3,600 |
200 |
1,600 |
(1,500) |
|
|
|
Op costs (before depreciation) |
(23,202) |
(23,498) |
(32,403) |
(36,372) |
(115,475) |
(32,766) |
(33,978) |
(31,189) |
(36,618) |
(134,551) |
(142,566) |
Adjusted EBITDA |
(1,604) |
2,932 |
608 |
4,932 |
6,868 |
(1,213) |
(486) |
2,538 |
2,504 |
3,343 |
10,883 |
Depreciation* |
(344) |
(390) |
(493) |
(528) |
(1,755) |
(808) |
(936) |
(754) |
(790) |
(3,288) |
(3,644) |
Adjusted operating profit |
(1,948) |
2,542 |
115 |
4,404 |
5,113 |
(2,021) |
(1,422) |
1,784 |
1,714 |
55 |
7,239 |
Operating Margin |
(9.0%) |
9.6% |
0.3% |
10.7% |
4.2% |
(6.4%) |
(4.2%) |
5.3% |
4.4% |
0.0% |
4.7% |
Net interest |
(577) |
(181) |
(218) |
(351) |
(1,327) |
(287) |
(351) |
(201) |
(361) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
Edison profit before tax (norm) |
(2,525) |
2,361 |
(103) |
4,053 |
3,786 |
(2,308) |
(1,773) |
1,583 |
1,353 |
(1,145) |
5,939 |
Amortisation of acq'd intangis* |
(250) |
(300) |
(350) |
(1,121) |
(2,021) |
(400) |
(400) |
(400) |
(400) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
Associates |
0 |
(1) |
0 |
(23) |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptional items |
(200) |
(1,700) |
(500) |
(1,200) |
(3,600) |
(200) |
(1,600) |
1,500 |
0 |
(300) |
0 |
Earnings before tax |
(2,975) |
360 |
(953) |
1,709 |
(1,859) |
(2,908) |
(3,773) |
2,683 |
953 |
(3,045) |
4,339 |
New orders and backlog |
|
|
|
||||||||
Incoming orders |
24,400 |
33,200 |
37,400 |
35,700 |
130,700 |
40,900 |
26,300 |
31,500 |
|
|
|
Quarterly revenues |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
33,492 |
33,727 |
|
|
|
Book-to-bill ratio |
1.13 |
1.26 |
1.13 |
0.86 |
1.07 |
1.30 |
0.79 |
0.93 |
|
|
|
Backlog |
40,800 |
48,500 |
62,200 |
61,300 |
|
70,200 |
63,300 |
61,400 |
|
|
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Quarterly amortisation of acquired intangibles are estimated data.
The company now has two managing directors, following the appointment of Dr Uwe Schwellbach, CFO, as managing director in September. He joins Dr Andreas Schneider-Neureither, CEO, and SNP is making progress in the hunt for a chief operating officer (COO).
New contract win with Volkswagen Saxony
Volkswagen Saxony has mandated SNP to migrate its IT systems to SAP S/4HANA. Volkswagen Saxony is a wholly owned subsidiary of Volkswagen and has plants in Zwickau, Dresden and Chemnitz. We see this as an introductory S/4HANA migration project and, if successful, it has the potential to be extended more broadly across the Volkswagen group.
In addition to migrating data to S/4HANA, the project involves complex adjustments such as client merges, company code merges and plant relocations. There is a tight deadline to complete the S/4HANA migration (1 January 2019), which reflects SNP’s highly effective, automated, proprietary software-based transformation approach. The project includes the transfer of master and transaction data from various modules of the SAP system to the S/4HANA target system. The standard software SNP Transformation Backbone will be used for the migration.
Forecast changes: Increase FY18 profitability
We have increased our FY18 operating profit forecast to break-even, which is in line with management guidance, from a €2.8m loss previously. While we have retained our revenue forecast, we have amended the revenue split, increasing cloud revenues and software maintenance while reducing software licences (which is a mix of proprietary licences and resales). We have reduced our capex, depreciation and FY18 net interest forecasts. We now forecast the group to end FY18 with net debt of €40.2m (previously €42.8m).
Exhibit 2: Forecast changes
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
|||||||
|
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Professional services |
104,851 |
104,851 |
0.0 |
117,267 |
117,267 |
0.0 |
127,158 |
127,158 |
0.0 |
Cloud |
2,000 |
3,347 |
67.4 |
2,190 |
3,665 |
67.4 |
2,388 |
3,996 |
67.4 |
Software licences |
22,804 |
21,197 |
(7.0) |
24,971 |
23,211 |
(7.0) |
27,224 |
25,306 |
(7.0) |
Software maintenance |
8,239 |
8,499 |
3.2 |
9,022 |
9,306 |
3.2 |
9,836 |
10,146 |
3.2 |
Total software |
31,043 |
29,696 |
(4.3) |
33,992 |
32,517 |
(4.3) |
37,060 |
35,452 |
(4.3) |
Group revenue |
137,895 |
137,895 |
0.0 |
153,449 |
153,449 |
0.0 |
166,606 |
166,606 |
0.0 |
Growth (%) |
12.7 |
12.7 |
|
11.3 |
11.3 |
|
8.6 |
8.6 |
|
Professional services contribution |
0 |
2,621 |
N/A |
4,691 |
4,984 |
6.3 |
8,265 |
8,583 |
3.8 |
Cloud contribution |
100 |
167 |
67.4 |
146 |
246 |
67.9 |
178 |
300 |
68.2 |
Software contribution |
3,104 |
3,267 |
5.2 |
8,498 |
8,129 |
(4.3) |
10,192 |
9,749 |
(4.3) |
Non-segment-related expenses |
(6,000) |
(6,000) |
0.0 |
(6,120) |
(6,120) |
0.0 |
(6,242) |
(6,242) |
0.0 |
Operating expenses |
(140,690) |
(137,839) |
(2.0) |
(146,234) |
(146,211) |
(0.0) |
(154,214) |
(154,216) |
0.0 |
Capitalisation of dev costs (net) |
(32) |
(32) |
0.0 |
(32) |
(32) |
0.0 |
(32) |
(32) |
0.0 |
Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) |
(2,796) |
55 |
(102.0) |
7,215 |
7,239 |
0.3 |
12,393 |
12,390 |
(0.0) |
Operating profit margin (%) |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
|
4.7 |
4.7 |
|
7.4 |
7.4 |
|
Growth (%) |
(284.8) |
(98.9) |
|
(358.1) |
13,009.7 |
|
71.8 |
71.2 |
|
Net interest |
(1,300) |
(1,200) |
(7.7) |
(1,300) |
(1,300) |
0.0 |
(1,100) |
(1,100) |
0.0 |
Profit before tax norm |
(4,096) |
(1,145) |
(72.0) |
5,915 |
5,939 |
0.4 |
11,293 |
11,290 |
(0.0) |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
0.0 |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
0.0 |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
0.0 |
Exceptional items |
0 |
(300) |
|
|
0 |
|
|
0 |
|
Profit before tax |
(5,696) |
(3,045) |
(46.5) |
4,315 |
4,339 |
0.5 |
9,693 |
9,690 |
(0.0) |
Taxation |
1,229 |
343 |
(72.0) |
(1,775) |
(1,782) |
0.4 |
(3,388) |
(3,387) |
(0.0) |
Non-controlling interests |
(267) |
(267) |
0.0 |
(289) |
(289) |
0.0 |
(312) |
(312) |
0.0 |
FRS 3 net income |
(4,734) |
(2,969) |
(37.3) |
2,252 |
2,268 |
0.7 |
5,993 |
5,991 |
(0.0) |
Adjusted EPS (c) |
(57.3) |
(19.5) |
(65.9) |
70.4 |
70.7 |
0.4 |
138.7 |
138.7 |
(0.0) |
P/E - Adjusted EPS |
|
N/A |
|
22.7 |
|
11.6 |
|||
Source: Edison Investment Research.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
137,895 |
153,449 |
166,606 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
137,895 |
153,449 |
166,606 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
5,484 |
8,124 |
6,868 |
3,343 |
10,883 |
16,162 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
4,222 |
7,114 |
5,113 |
55 |
7,239 |
12,390 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
(657) |
(2,021) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
||
Exceptionals |
356 |
400 |
(3,600) |
(300) |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
(3) |
8 |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
4,575 |
6,865 |
(532) |
(1,845) |
5,639 |
10,790 |
||
Net Interest |
(828) |
(1,137) |
(1,327) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
(1,100) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,394 |
5,977 |
3,786 |
(1,145) |
5,939 |
11,290 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,747 |
5,728 |
(1,859) |
(3,045) |
4,339 |
9,690 |
Tax |
(1,195) |
(1,517) |
(807) |
343 |
(1,782) |
(3,387) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,198 |
4,460 |
2,980 |
(801) |
4,157 |
7,903 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,211 |
(2,666) |
(2,701) |
2,557 |
6,303 |
||
Minority interest |
0 |
(147) |
234 |
(267) |
(289) |
(312) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
2,198 |
4,313 |
3,214 |
(1,069) |
3,868 |
7,591 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,064 |
(2,431) |
(2,969) |
2,268 |
5,991 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
100.4 |
61.9 |
(19.5) |
70.7 |
138.7 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
100.4 |
61.9 |
(19.5) |
70.7 |
138.7 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
68.3 |
94.6 |
(46.8) |
(54.2) |
41.4 |
109.4 |
Dividend per share (c) |
34.00 |
39.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
30.00 |
40.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
9.8 |
10.1 |
5.6 |
2.4 |
7.1 |
9.7 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
7.5 |
8.8 |
4.2 |
0.0 |
4.7 |
7.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
15,243 |
30,109 |
75,171 |
73,698 |
72,258 |
71,018 |
Intangible Assets |
11,675 |
24,179 |
67,012 |
65,380 |
63,748 |
62,115 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,999 |
3,161 |
5,187 |
5,346 |
5,538 |
5,931 |
||
Other |
1,570 |
2,769 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
29,996 |
58,424 |
78,614 |
60,885 |
62,567 |
67,131 |
Stocks |
0 |
371 |
371 |
418 |
466 |
506 |
||
Debtors |
16,084 |
25,652 |
43,781 |
44,346 |
49,348 |
53,579 |
||
Cash |
13,769 |
31,914 |
33,877 |
15,535 |
12,168 |
12,461 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,703) |
(32,631) |
(40,531) |
(40,517) |
(44,862) |
(48,353) |
Creditors |
(11,101) |
(14,523) |
(29,295) |
(29,281) |
(33,626) |
(37,117) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2,602) |
(18,108) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(15,513) |
(7,327) |
(53,157) |
(45,583) |
(40,583) |
(35,583) |
Long term borrowings |
(12,344) |
(5,531) |
(49,487) |
(44,487) |
(39,487) |
(34,487) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,169) |
(1,796) |
(3,670) |
(1,096) |
(1,096) |
(1,096) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
16,024 |
48,575 |
60,097 |
48,483 |
49,380 |
54,213 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,879 |
1,005 |
(5,316) |
2,686 |
10,148 |
15,362 |
Net Interest |
(167) |
53 |
(798) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
(1,100) |
||
Tax |
(554) |
(412) |
(1,366) |
321 |
(1,663) |
(3,161) |
||
Capex |
(1,779) |
(3,451) |
(5,234) |
(3,447) |
(3,836) |
(4,165) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals* |
(3,228) |
(5,923) |
(28,783) |
(11,701) |
(1,716) |
0 |
||
Shares issued |
0 |
30,129 |
18,293 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(483) |
(1,264) |
(1,932) |
0 |
0 |
(1,642) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(4,332) |
20,137 |
(25,136) |
(13,342) |
1,633 |
5,293 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
40,188 |
38,555 |
Other |
(275) |
(10,686) |
(9,985) |
0 |
() |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
40,188 |
38,555 |
33,262 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes additional payments for Adepcon in FY18 and FY19, and final payments for RSP, Astrums/Hartung, Harlex and Innoplexia in FY18.
|
|
Research: Real Estate
Primary Health Properties (PHP) recently held a capital markets day in the Republic of Ireland (RoI), where it now has eight assets and looks for further strong growth, towards 10% of the overall portfolio. The RoI market shares similar drivers and attractive characteristics to the UK and currently benefits from higher yields and lower funding costs. The visit provided additional comfort to our forecasts for further income and dividend growth driven by asset acquisition in both the UK and RoI, an improving outlook for rental growth and more opportunities to optimise average borrowing costs.