SenSen Networks — Strong finish to FY23, positive start to FY24

SenSen Networks (ASX: SNS)

Last close As at 16/07/2024

AUD0.04

0.01 (25.00%)

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Research: TMT

SenSen Networks — Strong finish to FY23, positive start to FY24

SenSen’s Q423 update shows robust quarter-on-quarter growth in cash receipts, broadly aligning with our full year revenue forecast. Lead indicators for FY24 are positive, highlighted by the recent signing of a A$1.4m three-year contract with a new Asian casino customer, as well as a strong contract pipeline. SenSen also launched several new solution variants in Q4, which could lead to high-margin upsell opportunities. The group has identified cost-cutting measures for H124, with the aim of becoming cash flow positive for the full year, which we have reflected in our updated forecasts.

Max Hayes

Written by

Max Hayes

Associate Analyst

Digital signals flying over highway. Digital transformation. Internet of Things.

TMT

SenSen Networks

Strong finish to FY23, positive start to FY24

Q423 activity report

Software and comp services

26 July 2023

Price

A$0.06

Market cap

A$40.8m

US$0.68/A$

Net debt (A$m) at 31 March 2023 (assumes H123 leases)

0.03

Shares in issue

680.3m

Free float

67%

Code

SNS

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

26.0

40.0

(18.2)

Rel (local)

21.5

39.2

(24.1)

52-week high/low

A$0.09

A$0.04

Business description

SenSen Networks, an Australian-based technology company, operates in the field of sensor artificial intelligence. By applying its SenDISA AI platform to physical space monitoring, it extracts real-time insights for customers. It provides solutions to customers in the smart city, gaming, retail and surveillance verticals.

Next events

FY23 annual report

September 2023

Analysts

Max Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)7930 166512

SenSen Networks is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

SenSen’s Q423 update shows robust quarter-on-quarter growth in cash receipts, broadly aligning with our full year revenue forecast. Lead indicators for FY24 are positive, highlighted by the recent signing of a A$1.4m three-year contract with a new Asian casino customer, as well as a strong contract pipeline. SenSen also launched several new solution variants in Q4, which could lead to high-margin upsell opportunities. The group has identified cost-cutting measures for H124, with the aim of becoming cash flow positive for the full year, which we have reflected in our updated forecasts.

Year

end

Revenue (A$m)

Adj EBITDA*
(A$m)

PBT**
(A$m)

EPS**
(c)

P/sales
(x)

Net cash***
(A$m)

06/21

5.5

(2.2)

(2.9)

(0.59)

7.4

(3.9)

06/22

9.1

(7.8)

(8.6)

(1.42)

4.5

(3.9)

06/23e

11.1

(4.7)

(5.4)

(0.82)

3.7

1.5

06/24e

17.6

4.2

3.5

0.40

2.3

(0.0)

Note: *Adjusted EBITDA excludes non-cash share-based payments. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, other income and exceptional items. ***Net cash is cash less debt and including leases.

Positioned to scale profitably in FY24

SenSen’s Q423 customer cash receipts grew by 19% q-o-q to A$3.3m and totalled A$11.2m for the year, continuing to be primarily driven by Smart Cities and broadly in line with our forecast. On a year-on-year basis, Q4 was down 11% from the record levels achieved in FY22 due to a small number of large customer payments slipping into Q124. In addition to a delay in a A$400k drawdown from its Rocking Horse facility, this resulted in management falling shy of its cash flow positive target for Q4. At end FY23, SenSen won a new A$1.4m casino contract in Asia and an A$89k proof-of-concept trial, showing encouraging progress in the division despite its ongoing dispute with Angel. We have updated our FY24 forecasts to reflect these wins, with revenue growth driving margin expansion above our previous forecasts.

New products to drive high-margin growth

Lead indicators for FY24 are positive. Management expects to win several new customers in the coming months, with the goal of surpassing 100 enterprise customers in the first half (up from c 85 now). During Q4, SenSen launched several new solution variants, primarily in Smart Cities, which is currently its largest revenue driver. Now these solutions are finalised and have several case studies illustrating their value, they can be more easily deployed either through upsells with existing clients or by winning new clients through a more diversified product suite. The group has also been granted six patents in the last six months (five in Casino, one in retail), building on its strong IP and barriers to entry.

Valuation: Discount to peers remains

SenSen trades at EV/sales multiples of 3.7x and 2.3x in FY23e and FY24e respectively, at an average 28% discount to peers. As discussed in our previous update, we believe achieving strong Q4 growth and reaching our forecasts has supported its stock performance and has helped close the valuation gap.

Q423 activities report and changes to forecasts

SenSen closed Q423 with customer cash receipts of A$3.3m, up 19% q-o-q but down 11% y-o-y. On a full-year basis, the group finished the year with cash receipts of A$11.2m, up 27% y-o-y and the first time the company has delivered double-digit millions of dollars in cash receipts in its history. Cash receipts provide a proxy for revenue, giving us confidence in our FY23 estimate, which we leave materially unchanged.

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

A$m

FY23e

FY24e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y change

Old

New

Change

y-o-y change

Revenue

11.1

11.1

(0.4)%

20.9%

17.0

17.6

3.7%

59.1%

Gross profit

7.7

7.7

(0.4)%

36.2%

12.4

12.9

3.8%

67.9%

Gross margin

69.4%

69.4%

(0.0)%

7.8%

73.2%

73.2%

0.0%

3.8%

Adjusted EBITDA

(3.5)

(4.7)

(36.1)%

38.8%

3.6

4.2

14.0%

N/A

Normalised EBIT

(3.9)

(5.2)

(31.8)%

56.8%

3.2

3.7

16.2%

N/A

Normalised PBT

(4.2)

(5.4)

(29.9)%

55.8%

3.0

3.5

17.0%

N/A

EPS - normalised, diluted (c)

(0.62)

(0.82)

(32.6)%

59.4%

0.33

0.40

21.6%

N/A

Cash flow from operations

(3.4)

(4.7)

(38.0)%

38.5%

1.4

1.9

33.6%

N/A

Net cash/(debt) including leases

2.6

(1.5)

N/A

137.8%

4.3

0.0

(99.8)%

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research

Payments to suppliers and employers in the quarter were higher than our expectations, which we have reflected in our higher EBITDA loss and net debt forecast for FY23. Additionally, the company’s drawdown of A$400k from its Rocking Horse facility was delayed to Q124 due to a backlog of funding requests on the lender’s side. The combination of higher-than-expected costs and the funding delay meant that SenSen saw a A$566k cash outflow in the quarter. The company expects to recognise a further A$750k in annualised cost savings in H124, in addition to its A$500k salary sacrifice plan announced in Q3. Our prior forecasts already factored in additional cost savings, but we believe higher top-line growth (explained below) and operating leverage could drive margin expansion in FY24.

New product launches and customer wins

SenSen launched six new products in Q4 (see Exhibit 2), which are now operational and have been met with a positive reception among several of its clients. Below we show how management has used these products to generate up- and cross-sell opportunities, as well as potential new contract wins:

Up-sell: AI co-pilot for mobile enforcement is an add-on product that is now operational in Chicago and generating additional SaaS revenues from existing AI Co-Pilot software licensees.

Cross-sell: SenSen completed its Sea Ports AI trial for Singapore in Q423 worth A$500k, integrating its software into 60 cameras to deliver real-time safety alerts. There are thousands of cameras in the port, providing scope to upscale its services. Additionally, management has identified several other government customers that it could sell its Sea Ports AI product to.

New customer growth: previously theft recovery had only been available to service station owners that had bought SenSen’s Scancam product. Management has now engineered the service to be available to all fuel retailers, integrated with point-of-sale provider QuickFuel, and within a month of its launch the solution had been adopted by 10 service stations.

Exhibit 2: New solutions launched in Q423

Source: SenSen Networks

Elsewhere, the company showcased its Smart Cities products in North America’s leading parking and mobility conference in June, leading to multiple customer and partner opportunities. In Q124, it also received extension orders from Transport for New South Wales for a Digital Smart Curbs project. Management expects several new Australian customers to be onboarded in the coming months for its flagship SenFORCE mobile enforcement solution, which is where its Digital Smart Curbs product sits.

In the fuel retail division, the company expanded its customer base with 25 new Scancam Edge sites for Liberty Oil, as well as for Atlas Fuel and various independent sites. The company is also seeing strong demand for its security and surveillance solutions within the US and Singapore markets. We believe its Sea Port AI solution offers the greatest opportunity for growth in this area, particularly in Singapore following the end of the trial.

Finally, in the casinos division, the company won contracts worth over A$1.5m, including a three-year A$1.4m contract with a new Asian casino and a proof-of-concept trial worth A$89k with an independent Asian casino. This is encouraging given its ongoing dispute with Angel Group, which has been a significant headwind for the division (discussed in our previous note). Management signed five new patents in the period, strengthening its gaming IP and its competitive advantage.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

A$'k

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Year end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

5,533

9,145

11,055

17,589

Cost of Sales

(2,030)

(3,513)

(3,385)

(4,713)

Gross Profit

3,503

5,633

7,670

12,876

Other income

2,807

2,978

2,276

2,276

Operating expense (not incl. share-based payments)

(8,518)

(16,362)

(14,693)

(11,001)

EBITDA

 

 

(2,209)

(7,751)

(4,747)

4,151

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(2,685)

(8,337)

(5,205)

3,679

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(83)

(536)

(500)

(500)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Share-based payments

(72)

(3,173)

(750)

(1,000)

Reported operating profit

(2,840)

(12,046)

(6,455)

2,179

Net Interest

(176)

(254)

(231)

(164)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

(154)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2,861)

(8,591)

(5,436)

3,516

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(3,016)

(12,454)

(6,686)

2,016

Reported tax

(6)

225

(279)

(403)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,878)

(8,641)

(5,467)

2,813

Profit After Tax (reported)

(3,022)

(12,229)

(6,965)

1,613

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(2,878)

(8,641)

(5,467)

2,813

Net income (reported)

(3,022)

(12,229)

(6,965)

1,613

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

484

608

666

701

EPS - basic normalised (c)

 

 

(0.59)

(1.42)

(0.82)

0.40

EPS - diluted normalised (c)

 

 

(0.59)

(1.42)

(0.82)

0.40

EPS - basic reported (c)

 

 

(0.62)

(2.01)

(1.05)

0.23

Dividend (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

47.0

65.3

20.9

59.1

Gross Margin (%)

63.3

61.6

69.4

73.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

-39.9

-84.8

-42.9

23.6

Normalised Operating Margin (%)

-48.5

-91.2

-47.1

20.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

2,168

9,127

8,626

8,125

Intangible Assets

1,300

8,281

7,781

7,281

Tangible Assets

800

770

769

768

Investments & other

68

75

75

75

Current Assets

 

 

8,022

11,391

7,725

9,661

Stocks

241

232

168

232

Debtors

979

1,943

1,817

2,891

Cash & cash equivalents

5,176

6,214

1,898

2,250

Other

1,625

3,002

3,842

4,288

Current Liabilities

 

 

3,946

8,185

10,292

9,580

Creditors

750

1,239

2,092

1,874

Tax and social security

0

0

0

0

Short term borrowings

861

1,954

2,974

1,874

Lease liabilities

306

185

185

185

Other

2,028

4,806

5,040

5,645

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

244

201

201

201

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Lease liabilities

138

183

183

183

Other long term liabilities

106

19

19

19

Net Assets

 

 

6,000

12,132

5,857

8,005

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

6,000

12,132

5,857

8,005

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before interest and tax

(3,250)

(7,770)

(4,182)

2,482

Net interest

(127)

(117)

(231)

(164)

Tax

(31)

0

(279)

(403)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(3,409)

(7,887)

(4,692)

1,915

Capex

(253)

(254)

(174)

(174)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(1,080)

0

0

Equity financing

7,043

9,644

0

0

Borrowings

(414)

1,120

1,020

(1,100)

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

(253)

(506)

(497)

(290)

Net Cash Flow

2,714

1,037

(4,342)

351

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1,150)

(4,315)

(4,259)

1,076

FX

0

0

0

0

Movement in borrowings

451

(1,093)

(1,020)

1,100

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(4,315)

(4,259)

1,103

(375)

Closing net debt/(cash) including leases

 

 

(3,871)

(3,891)

1,471

(7)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SenSen and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SenSen. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SenSen and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SenSen. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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