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Intelligent Energy Holdings — Strategic transformation being delivered

Intelligent Energy Holdings — Strategic transformation being delivered

During H117, Intelligent Energy was reshaped to focus on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products. The group has won contracts in two of its three target segments: stationary power and drones, withdrawn from its Indian energy management business and realised substantial cost savings. However, product roll-out has been slower than originally anticipated, with management in financing discussions with key convertible loan note holders and we have reduced our estimates.

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Intelligent Energy Holdings

Strategic transformation being delivered

AGM and trading update

Alternative energy

24 April 2017

Price

6.38p

Market cap

£13m

Net debt* (£m) at end September 2016
*Convertible loan notes treated as £30.0m debt

9.4

Shares in issue

206.2m

Free float

79.4%

Code

IEH

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

6.3

(8.9)

(51.9)

Rel (local)

9.0

(9.2)

(57.1)

52-week high/low

17.2p

4.5p

Business description

Intelligent Energy Holdings delivers clean energy solutions for the distributed energy, diesel replacement, automotive and aerial drone markets. Working with international companies, Intelligent Energy aims to embed its fuel cell stack technology into applications across its target markets.

Next events

Interims

May/June 2017

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Intelligent Energy Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

During H117, Intelligent Energy was reshaped to focus on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products. The group has won contracts in two of its three target segments: stationary power and drones, withdrawn from its Indian energy management business and realised substantial cost savings. However, product roll-out has been slower than originally anticipated, with management in financing discussions with key convertible loan note holders and we have reduced our estimates.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA*
(£m)

PBT**
(£m)

EPS**
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

09/14

13.6

(52.4)

(58.0)

(30.4)

0.0

N/A

09/15

78.2

(46.2)

(51.8)

(21.4)

0.0

N/A

09/16

91.8***

(33.4)

(42.8)

(20.2)

0.0

N/A

09/17e

24.6

(13.2)

(21.7)

(9.1)

0.0

N/A

Note: *Adjusted as per company presentation. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. ***Including £85.1m revenues from power management activity.

Cost reduction programme on track but insufficient

The cost reduction programme implemented during H216 has enabled management to maintain underlying cash burn at £1.6m/month including finance charges and capex. Our model shows that if costs are maintained at these levels, the group has sufficient cash to support the expected growth in commercial products through to calendar 2018, but not afterwards. Management is in discussions with key convertible loan note holders, who are also substantial shareholders, regarding potential financing. It is also considering reducing costs associated with being a listed company, estimated at £1.2m pa.

First contract awards for product sales

Having set out the strategy in September 2016 of focusing on near-term opportunities to deliver products for deployment in distributed power generation, UAV and motive applications, management has secured two contracts. The first is to supply 600 1kW fuel cell modules to US-based Luxfer-GTM Technologies for integration into Luxfer-GTM’s Zero-Set Lite portable light towers. The deal demonstrates that IEH’s stack technology, proven during deployment in the demanding environment of telecoms towers in India, is suitable for other applications. IEH has also signed a contract with PINC to supply fuel cell systems for powering airborne drones. PINC's drones are used to monitor hard-to-reach inventory and assets. Switching from battery to fuel cell more than trebles flight times, substantially improving drone efficiency. The Luxfer-GTM contract will see stack production commence in Loughborough, which has the capacity and staffing levels to do this. The existing Suzuki relationship continues, with trials announced with the Met Police in London of Suzuki bikes powered with IEH fuel cells.

Valuation: Negative impact of funding uncertainty

Our analysis indicates that IEH is trading on EV/sales multiples that are towards the lower end of the range of its peers. We believe that removal of the funding uncertainty will be a key catalyst for the share price performance.

Changes to estimates

We have revised our FY17 estimates to reflect the following:

■

The trading statement refers to £16.6m of revenues from the Indian GTL interim contract, which ceased on 30 November 2016. This is higher than our previous estimate.

■

The trading statement refers to expected H117 revenues totalling c £19m from all three activities, giving a maximum of c £2.4m from the provision of engineering services. This is substantially less than half of our previous estimate for FY17, so we reduce our estimated revenues from this activity.

■

The trading statement notes that it has taken longer than expected to begin to generate product sales. Our previous estimates took a relatively cautious view on roll-out timescales, so although we do reduce our estimate for revenues attributable to product sales activity, the reduction is fairly modest.

■

Cash burn during H117 is expected to be in line with our previous estimate of c £1.6m including finance charges and capex. The widening in our estimate of group EBITDA and PBT losses relates to the reduction in our product sales estimate.

Exhibit 1: Estimate revisions

2016

2017e

Actual

Old

New

% change

Revenues from power management (£m)

85.1

14.0

16.6

18.6%

Revenues from provision of engineering services (£m)

6.7

8.5

5.0

(41.2)

Revenues from product sales (£m)

0.0

5.0

3.0

(40.0)

Group revenues (£m)

91.8

27.5

24.6

(10.5)

Group EBITDA (£m)

(33.4)

(12.0)

(13.2)

(10.0)

Group PBT (£m)

(42.8)

(20.5)

(21.7)

(5.9)

Group EPS (p)

(20.2)

(8.5)

(9.1)

(7.1)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation: Removal of funding uncertainty required

For calibration, we examine sales-based peer group multiples. (Note: IEH’s multiples strip out the revenues attributable to the Indian energy management activity because this has been discontinued and generated minimal margins.) The comparison shows that IEH is trading on multiples towards the lower end of the range of its peers. However, until the company’s funding and potential delisting issues have been resolved, this valuation gap is largely irrelevant. Nonetheless, it does indicate the potential for valuation upside in the event of successful funding leading to product volume-based revenues and, in due course, positive cash flows.

Exhibit 2: EV/Sales multiples for listed peers

Company

Market cap

Historic EV/Sales (x)

Current EV/Sales (x)

AFC Energy

£48m

20.4

11.0

Ballard Power Systems

£309m

3.8

3.0

Ceres Power Holdings

£88m

72.6

40.4

FuelCell Energy

£48m

0.6

0.7

Hydrogenics

£67m

1.7

1.3

ITM Power

£44m

21.3

5.7

Plug Power

£202m

3.2

2.1

SFC Energy

£28m

0.7

0.7

Mean

7.4

3.5

Intelligent Energy (excluding Power Management revenues)

£12m

1.9

1.6

Intelligent Energy (excluding Power Management revenues - all Convertible Loan notes converting

£33m

2.0

1.6

Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Grey shading indicates exclusion from mean. Prices at 3 April 2017.

We note the potential impact of the convertible loan notes issued in May 2016. This action secured financing through to FY18, but introduced a source of significant potential dilution. If all of these loan notes are converted to shares, this represents an additional 375m shares to the 206m currently in issue. With the share price at the current low level, this dilutive effect is not apparent in the EV/Sales calculation, as the additional market cap represented by the conversion of convertible loan notes is almost equal to the reduction in debt resulting from the conversion, so the EV value is relatively unchanged. At higher share price levels the effect would be more apparent. The higher the share price, the greater the EV increase resulting from conversion of the loan notes.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£m

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

Year end 30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

20.8

13.6

78.2

91.8

24.6

Cost of Sales

(13.5)

(9.9)

(75.9)

(90.0)

(23.7)

Gross Profit

7.3

3.7

2.3

1.8

0.9

EBITDA

 

 

(23.4)

(52.4)

(46.2)

(33.4)

(13.2)

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

(26.7)

(46.0)

(51.2)

(38.1)

(17.8)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

(7.1)

(0.3)

(21.6)

(0.5)

Share based payments

(0.0)

(2.6)

(2.3)

(0.2)

0.0

Operating Profit

(26.7)

(55.6)

(53.8)

(59.9)

(18.3)

Net Interest

(0.5)

(4.0)

(1.3)

(2.7)

(3.9)

Share of losses from JVs and exceptionals

(2.5)

0.0

0.7

(2.0)

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(29.7)

(58.0)

(51.8)

(42.8)

(21.7)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(29.8)

(59.6)

(54.4)

(64.6)

(22.2)

Tax

8.8

11.4

11.6

(18.1)

3.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(20.9)

(46.6)

(40.2)

(39.0)

(18.7)

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

(21.0)

(48.2)

(42.8)

(82.7)

(19.2)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

134.4

153.4

188.2

193.3

206.2

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(15.6)

(30.4)

(21.4)

(20.2)

(9.1)

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

(15.6)

(30.4)

(21.4)

(13.5)

(2.5)

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

(15.6)

(31.4)

(22.7)

(42.8)

(9.3)

Dividend per share (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

35.3

27.4

2.9

2.0

3.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

27.7

37.9

59.8

10.7

8.5

Intangible Assets

13.3

14.7

29.4

7.9

6.8

Tangible Assets

5.3

6.9

8.5

2.8

1.7

Deferred tax assets

9.2

16.3

21.9

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

46.4

107.5

45.2

33.0

17.1

Stocks

1.5

4.1

5.3

1.6

1.6

Debtors

9.8

11.1

11.5

7.8

9.1

Cash and short-term deposits

31.6

88.9

24.2

20.6

3.4

Current tax assets

3.5

3.4

4.2

3.0

3.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(8.6)

(17.6)

(14.3)

(8.7)

(9.8)

Creditors

(8.6)

(17.6)

(14.3)

(8.4)

(9.5)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.3)

(0.3)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(21.1)

0.0

(3.0)

(22.8)

(22.8)

Long term borrowings

(18.5)

0.0

0.0

(21.0)*

(21.0)*

Other long term liabilities

(2.6)

0.0

(3.0)

(1.8)

(1.8)

Net Assets

 

 

44.4

127.8

87.7

12.2

(7.0)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(23.4)

(50.6)

(51.5)

(31.4)

(13.9)

Net Interest

(0.0)

0.3

0.1

(1.1)

(3.9)

Tax

3.3

3.8

4.8

5.1

3.0

Capex

(5.0)

(6.8)

(19.4)

(3.8)

(2.4)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

1.1

1.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

1.5

108.4

0.2

1.1

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Forex/Other

0.0

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(23.6)

56.1

(64.7)

(30.0)

(17.2)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

29.9

(13.1)

(88.9)

(24.2)

0.7

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

66.5

19.7

0.0

5.1

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13.1)

(88.9)

(24.2)

0.7

17.9

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Including £20.7m liability of convertible loan notes.

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Intelligent Energy Holdingss and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Intelligent Energy Holdingss and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: TMT

Acal — Stronger trading drives upgrades

Acal experienced strong trading in Q417, with organic growth in both divisions further boosted by currency. Order intake in Q417 saw 13% organic growth, positioning the company well for FY18. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger trading environment, resulting in EPS upgrades of 3.4% in FY17 and 2.3% in FY18. Despite some recovery in the share price, in our view the stock still represents good value.

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